Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

ok

Romain Grosjean11/10Points Finish - 24/05/2015
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£42.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £42.00

23 May 2015 - Monaco F1 Grand Prix - Points Finish - Points Finish

Sergio Perez @ 9/4

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
32.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001328/F

[Doobs]

with merc x 2 ferrari x 2 williams x 2 a red bull etc what are the chances of button, maldonado, grosjean and perez hitting the points Peter? (don't work it out)

should we really be backing all four? there are only a few top ten spots to go for minus some big incident/lack of reliability aren't there?

Looking back, I'd guess you are getting 30% non finishers.  Obviously some are going to be more likely than others to not finish, say for example, Maldanado and guessing the Mercedes/ Ferraris more likely to finish.   I guess you wouldn't expect McLaren to be average finishers right now but the drivers may make up for the car.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Interesting article by Pullien today in the Post about play off finals and their lack of goals generally.  He makes an interesting comment about how the mean average goals in play off finals is in line with or only slightly lower than regular season games.  However the distribution of these goals is more stretched out.  43% of finals have gone under 1.5 goals but only 57% under 2.5 goals.  Obviously the sample size is relatively small.  It seems like these games are either very very tight or massively freeflowing with plenty of goals when teams are chasing and not much in between.  Seems like 2 or 3 goals in these types of games might be less likely than normal goal distributions would have us believe.  Given the pressure and rewards at stake this would seem logical if it is 0-0 teams play very defensive not wanting to take much risk later on.  If you have a copy of the post it is worth a read.

Given how close the div 2 game is i think the draw is a big price at 12/5.  Recommend £30

Also under 1.5 goals at 2/1, recommend £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/total-goals-over-under
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/winner

Tough game to predict this one having seen both teams a few times.If the games influenced by Southend 0-0 is very likely however if the game goes along the Wycombe influence 3-3 wouldn't surprise me.Personally I've gone over 4.5 goals so expect a 0-0.

[gherkin]

I think you're already on Middlesex for the CC this year but I wrote this for elsewhere, so I'll copy and post it here in case you are interested...

Warwickshire to win the CC @ 4.5

They are the strongest bowling side in the division in my opinion, especially if you look at strength in depth - Rankin, Woakes, Wright, Barker, Clarke & Patel are the 1st choice attack (I can't remember a single time in the past 3 years where all 6 have been fit and available but I presume Wright would be the man to miss out if that were ever the case).  They have solid backup in Jones, Milnes, Hannon-Dalby, Poysdon and Javid should they get a few injuries.  

Having Trott as a permanent member is going to help the batting considerably, especially as the weak link in the team is still the top order.  In him and Chopra there are now 2 international standard batsmen in the top 4.  Porterfield (the Ireland captain) should be around the majority of the season but is far from a key player in this format. Westwood has been in great form at the start of the season so may keep him out of the side anyway when everyone is fit. Sam Hain is the best young player I've seen since Bell started out, and I'm sure he will go on to score a LOT of runs for England in the future. Laurie Evans lack of consistency drives me mad but is definitely capable of scoring 1000+ runs this season if he gets it right.  Backup isn't as strong in this department but there is Javid to come in if we had a couple of injuries - after that there are a couple of youngsters (Coleman, Lewis) who will get a few chances in the 1 day game but hopefully won't be needed in the CC

In Ambrose, Clarke, Barker, Woakes, Patel they have by far the best lower order batting in the division.  Time and time again they get 200+ for the last 5 wickets.  

There are a couple of injuries at the moment in Woakes and Hain but both should be back by mid-season

They have been the best side in England over the last 4 years (not every year but in general across this period, finishing 2nd/1st/4th/2nd). They had an unbelievable number of injuries and international call ups the year they came 4th and only a points deduction cost them the title in 2011.  Last year Yorkshire were comfortably the best team but at the same time Warwickshire were comfortably the 2nd best team.  From last year, Warwickshire are set to see a lot more of Woakes and Trott, whereas Yorkshire are going to lose Ballance and Lyth (between them they got over 2000 runs form last season).  It also looks likely Yorkshire will lose their coach in the next couple of weeks, which will be a big blow for them.  I don't think there's much between these 2 sides and I think they should both be around 5/2.  Middlesex look the strongest from the rest of the division and Durham & Sussex have an outside chance too.  Given the start they made, I'd be surprised if anyone Notts/Som/Woc/Ham finished in the top 2, let alone win it.

If anyone can get me some money (as much as possible really) on this it would be much appreciated as I can't get on with any UK bookie.  I'll happily take 4.25 to give you a freeroll for the remaining amount (it's 4.5 pretty much everywhere). Just let me know, ta!

[arbboy]

Interesting article by Pullien today in the Post about play off finals and their lack of goals generally.  He makes an interesting comment about how the mean average goals in play off finals is in line with or only slightly lower than regular season games.  However the distribution of these goals is more stretched out.  43% of finals have gone under 1.5 goals but only 57% under 2.5 goals.  Obviously the sample size is relatively small.  It seems like these games are either very very tight or massively freeflowing with plenty of goals when teams are chasing and not much in between.  Seems like 2 or 3 goals in these types of games might be less likely than normal goal distributions would have us believe.  Given the pressure and rewards at stake this would seem logical if it is 0-0 teams play very defensive not wanting to take much risk later on.  If you have a copy of the post it is worth a read.

Given how close the div 2 game is i think the draw is a big price at 12/5.  Recommend £30

Also under 1.5 goals at 2/1, recommend £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/total-goals-over-under
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/winner

Tough game to predict this one having seen both teams a few times.If the games influenced by Southend 0-0 is very likely however if the game goes along the Wycombe influence 3-3 wouldn't surprise me.Personally I've gone over 4.5 goals so expect a 0-0.

We are probably both on good bets per my write up. 

[TightEnd]

that was a decent qualifying for our bets

with the exception of bottas (podium) and grosjean (16th after the grid pen)

we have hamilton to win, perez, maldonado and button for points finishes. button was stymied from Q3 by flags at the end of Q2

[TightEnd]

I think you're already on Middlesex for the CC this year but I wrote this for elsewhere, so I'll copy and post it here in case you are interested...

Warwickshire to win the CC @ 4.5

They are the strongest bowling side in the division in my opinion, especially if you look at strength in depth - Rankin, Woakes, Wright, Barker, Clarke & Patel are the 1st choice attack (I can't remember a single time in the past 3 years where all 6 have been fit and available but I presume Wright would be the man to miss out if that were ever the case).  They have solid backup in Jones, Milnes, Hannon-Dalby, Poysdon and Javid should they get a few injuries. 

Having Trott as a permanent member is going to help the batting considerably, especially as the weak link in the team is still the top order.  In him and Chopra there are now 2 international standard batsmen in the top 4.  Porterfield (the Ireland captain) should be around the majority of the season but is far from a key player in this format. Westwood has been in great form at the start of the season so may keep him out of the side anyway when everyone is fit. Sam Hain is the best young player I've seen since Bell started out, and I'm sure he will go on to score a LOT of runs for England in the future. Laurie Evans lack of consistency drives me mad but is definitely capable of scoring 1000+ runs this season if he gets it right.  Backup isn't as strong in this department but there is Javid to come in if we had a couple of injuries - after that there are a couple of youngsters (Coleman, Lewis) who will get a few chances in the 1 day game but hopefully won't be needed in the CC

In Ambrose, Clarke, Barker, Woakes, Patel they have by far the best lower order batting in the division.  Time and time again they get 200+ for the last 5 wickets.   

There are a couple of injuries at the moment in Woakes and Hain but both should be back by mid-season

They have been the best side in England over the last 4 years (not every year but in general across this period, finishing 2nd/1st/4th/2nd). They had an unbelievable number of injuries and international call ups the year they came 4th and only a points deduction cost them the title in 2011.  Last year Yorkshire were comfortably the best team but at the same time Warwickshire were comfortably the 2nd best team.  From last year, Warwickshire are set to see a lot more of Woakes and Trott, whereas Yorkshire are going to lose Ballance and Lyth (between them they got over 2000 runs form last season).  It also looks likely Yorkshire will lose their coach in the next couple of weeks, which will be a big blow for them.  I don't think there's much between these 2 sides and I think they should both be around 5/2.  Middlesex look the strongest from the rest of the division and Durham & Sussex have an outside chance too.  Given the start they made, I'd be surprised if anyone Notts/Som/Woc/Ham finished in the top 2, let alone win it.

If anyone can get me some money (as much as possible really) on this it would be much appreciated as I can't get on with any UK bookie.  I'll happily take 4.25 to give you a freeroll for the remaining amount (it's 4.5 pretty much everywhere). Just let me know, ta!

thanks for this Mr Edgbaston

would be nice to get the 1-2 though i expect middlesex might fade.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-one/table

 County Championship Division One 2015 Warwickshire (Outright - Match) Odds: 7/2 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  135.00

[Peter-27]

The Berlin ePrix starts in 30 mins, just seen a market on Lassbrokes, suggest the following bet:

Race winner: Lucas di Grassi @ 7/2 - suggest £20.

It's between him and Buemi in my eyes. Lucas has looked more confident and stable in the car this weekend so far, and it's a good price. Buemi is also 7/2 though FYI.

[TightEnd]

The Berlin ePrix starts in 30 mins, just seen a market on Lassbrokes, suggest the following bet:

Race winner: Lucas di Grassi @ 7/2 - suggest £20.

It's between him and Buemi in my eyes. Lucas has looked more confident and stable in the car this weekend so far, and it's a good price. Buemi is also 7/2 though FYI.

I can't see this on ladbrokes or oddschecker

[JohnCharver]

The Berlin ePrix starts in 30 mins, just seen a market on Lassbrokes, suggest the following bet:

Race winner: Lucas di Grassi @ 7/2 - suggest £20.

It's between him and Buemi in my eyes. Lucas has looked more confident and stable in the car this weekend so far, and it's a good price. Buemi is also 7/2 though FYI.

Why wouldnt you back both?

[Peter-27]

The Berlin ePrix starts in 30 mins, just seen a market on Lassbrokes, suggest the following bet:

Race winner: Lucas di Grassi @ 7/2 - suggest £20.

It's between him and Buemi in my eyes. Lucas has looked more confident and stable in the car this weekend so far, and it's a good price. Buemi is also 7/2 though FYI.

I can't see this on ladbrokes or oddschecker

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Formula-E/Motor-Racing-N-1z0zbr2Z1z14167/ 4 mins! You could back both, but means less profit of course, and there is a chance that both could not finish or smth!

[TightEnd]

The Berlin ePrix starts in 30 mins, just seen a market on Lassbrokes, suggest the following bet:

Race winner: Lucas di Grassi @ 7/2 - suggest £20.

It's between him and Buemi in my eyes. Lucas has looked more confident and stable in the car this weekend so far, and it's a good price. Buemi is also 7/2 though FYI.

I can't see this on ladbrokes or oddschecker

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Formula-E/Motor-Racing-N-1z0zbr2Z1z14167/ 4 mins! You could back both, but means less profit of course, and there is a chance that both could not finish or smth!

ran out of time sorry. ladbrokes froze on me

[sonour]

I think you're already on Middlesex for the CC this year but I wrote this for elsewhere, so I'll copy and post it here in case you are interested...

Warwickshire to win the CC @ 4.5

They are the strongest bowling side in the division in my opinion, especially if you look at strength in depth - Rankin, Woakes, Wright, Barker, Clarke & Patel are the 1st choice attack (I can't remember a single time in the past 3 years where all 6 have been fit and available but I presume Wright would be the man to miss out if that were ever the case).  They have solid backup in Jones, Milnes, Hannon-Dalby, Poysdon and Javid should they get a few injuries.  

Having Trott as a permanent member is going to help the batting considerably, especially as the weak link in the team is still the top order.  In him and Chopra there are now 2 international standard batsmen in the top 4.  Porterfield (the Ireland captain) should be around the majority of the season but is far from a key player in this format. Westwood has been in great form at the start of the season so may keep him out of the side anyway when everyone is fit. Sam Hain is the best young player I've seen since Bell started out, and I'm sure he will go on to score a LOT of runs for England in the future. Laurie Evans lack of consistency drives me mad but is definitely capable of scoring 1000+ runs this season if he gets it right.  Backup isn't as strong in this department but there is Javid to come in if we had a couple of injuries - after that there are a couple of youngsters (Coleman, Lewis) who will get a few chances in the 1 day game but hopefully won't be needed in the CC

In Ambrose, Clarke, Barker, Woakes, Patel they have by far the best lower order batting in the division.  Time and time again they get 200+ for the last 5 wickets.  

There are a couple of injuries at the moment in Woakes and Hain but both should be back by mid-season

They have been the best side in England over the last 4 years (not every year but in general across this period, finishing 2nd/1st/4th/2nd). They had an unbelievable number of injuries and international call ups the year they came 4th and only a points deduction cost them the title in 2011.  Last year Yorkshire were comfortably the best team but at the same time Warwickshire were comfortably the 2nd best team.  From last year, Warwickshire are set to see a lot more of Woakes and Trott, whereas Yorkshire are going to lose Ballance and Lyth (between them they got over 2000 runs form last season).  It also looks likely Yorkshire will lose their coach in the next couple of weeks, which will be a big blow for them.  I don't think there's much between these 2 sides and I think they should both be around 5/2.  Middlesex look the strongest from the rest of the division and Durham & Sussex have an outside chance too.  Given the start they made, I'd be surprised if anyone Notts/Som/Woc/Ham finished in the top 2, let alone win it.

If anyone can get me some money (as much as possible really) on this it would be much appreciated as I can't get on with any UK bookie.  I'll happily take 4.25 to give you a freeroll for the remaining amount (it's 4.5 pretty much everywhere). Just let me know, ta!

I can get you on. Let me know exactly how much please, by pm if you would prefer.

[Peter-27]

The Berlin ePrix starts in 30 mins, just seen a market on Lassbrokes, suggest the following bet:

Race winner: Lucas di Grassi @ 7/2 - suggest £20.

It's between him and Buemi in my eyes. Lucas has looked more confident and stable in the car this weekend so far, and it's a good price. Buemi is also 7/2 though FYI.

I can't see this on ladbrokes or oddschecker

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Formula-E/Motor-Racing-N-1z0zbr2Z1z14167/ 4 mins! You could back both, but means less profit of course, and there is a chance that both could not finish or smth!

ran out of time sorry. ladbrokes froze on me

Ahh, that's a shame. Lucas won by miles!

In fact, exactly what I thought would happen, did happen. A bit gutted I didn't put more on TBH!

Hopefully some of you guys got on the bet.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/winner

Wycombe are friendless.  To go alongside the draw at 12/5 recommend £50 on Southend at 8/5 with coral if you can get on.