Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

I looked at the table last year as well arb. I only worked out the top 10 but most teams got around 56% of their points at home. Stoke (along with manU and saints) were higher at 61%.

This might seem small but given the tight margins in sports betting, could this not be seen as significant if the stat held up over a bigger sample?

I'm used to your posting style arb, so am not offended btw. You know your onions for sure and I'm happy to be put in my place.😃

FWIW i agree with you to a certain extent just not to your level of making Stoke a top 5 epl side.  I would say at least 50% of my biggest EPL bets in the last 8 years have been on Stoke at home odds against to teams in the lower half of the table.

[arbboy]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

Of course just blindly backing based on price is a mistake and the last part of my post could have been worded better.

I just remember last season, the number of times stoke were odds against at home against very ordinary sides. They have had a poor start to the season this year but are now looking a pretty tough side again. Will be interesting to see how they are priced up for other games.

They haven't had a poor start to the season.  They have 12 points from 9 games (totally in line with expectations).  In their first 5 games they played 3 of the big 5 in the outright betting for the epl, lost 1-0 at home to WBA when down to 9 men after 20 minutes yet still dominated the game and should have got a point tbh having watched the game.  We are being results orientated to say Stoke have had a poor start to the season imo at any stage.  If they had 11 men on the pitch against wba and won they would currently be in the top 6.

So it isn't a completely "ridiculous statement" to imply Stoke are the 4th or 5th best team in the EPL then

Would "marginally wrong" be kinder? 😃

   Yes if you put it like that.  I would prefer to think of it that Stoke are more likely to finish bottom than finish in the top 5 at the start of any given EPL season.

As for the home/away points 'myth' here is last year's league table.  Previous season's points % distribution was pretty similar as well.

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/2014-15/table.html#$$nwn0pu&&854e0Hj2EeWYxwrBiYTF8Q$$

Stoke got 33 points at home 21 away.  Totally in line with expectations for a normal points distribution % wise for any team between home/away games.  Not trying to have a pop at you btw just trying to dispel certain myths about Stoke which are not that true.

Stoke were the 'profit/loss to a level stake' leaders in the Prem last year according to this site, although I don't know how accurate their starting prices were?
http://welovebetting.co.uk/2015/07/profit-loss-league-tables-25th-may-2015/

All made up from beating Man City away at 20/1.  Slightly misleading stat.  Similar to West Ham this season.  They already have 3 massive road wins at huge prices.  Would be surprised if they don't win that 'title' this season.

[doubleup]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

Of course just blindly backing based on price is a mistake and the last part of my post could have been worded better.

I just remember last season, the number of times stoke were odds against at home against very ordinary sides. They have had a poor start to the season this year but are now looking a pretty tough side again. Will be interesting to see how they are priced up for other games.

They haven't had a poor start to the season.  They have 12 points from 9 games (totally in line with expectations).  In their first 5 games they played 3 of the big 5 in the outright betting for the epl, lost 1-0 at home to WBA when down to 9 men after 20 minutes yet still dominated the game and should have got a point tbh having watched the game.  We are being results orientated to say Stoke have had a poor start to the season imo at any stage.  If they had 11 men on the pitch against wba and won they would currently be in the top 6.

So it isn't a completely "ridiculous statement" to imply Stoke are the 4th or 5th best team in the EPL then

Would "marginally wrong" be kinder? 😃

   Yes if you put it like that.  I would prefer to think of it that Stoke are more likely to finish bottom than finish in the top 5 at the start of any given EPL season.

As for the home/away points 'myth' here is last year's league table.  Previous season's points % distribution was pretty similar as well.

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/2014-15/table.html#$$nwn0pu&&854e0Hj2EeWYxwrBiYTF8Q$$

Stoke got 33 points at home 21 away.  Totally in line with expectations for a normal points distribution % wise for any team between home/away games.  Not trying to have a pop at you btw just trying to dispel certain myths about Stoke which are not that true.

Stoke were the 'profit/loss to a level stake' leaders in the Prem last year according to this site, although I don't know how accurate their starting prices were?
http://welovebetting.co.uk/2015/07/profit-loss-league-tables-25th-may-2015/

All made up from beating Man City away at 20/1.  Slightly misleading stat.  Similar to West Ham this season.  They already have 3 massive road wins at huge prices.  Would be surprised if they don't win that 'title' this season.

fwiw I think they were winners if you backed them every home match.

http://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php  has all the odds and results

[Peter-27]

F1 bets coming later. The F1 weather forecast currently says that ONE FOOT of rain is expected over Friday/Saturday - surely this can't be right?! 

Scrap that, I'm too knackered right now. I'll do it tomorrow in the morning (FP1 isn't until 4PM UK Time).

There will be lots of bets what with Formula E starting up this weekend again too.

[Mark_Porter]

In the last 4 matches, Leicester have conceded the most headed attempts of any Premier League side - 12.

In the last 4 matches, Crystal Palace have racked up the most attempts coming from Set Plays of any Premier League side - 22.

Scot Dann anytime 12/1 with Betfred.

Unsure whether Hangeland or Delaney will play so will await team sheets before adding one of those two as well.

Looks a good home for a fiver.

[horseplayer]

I really don't think backing SF is a good idea, look at the teams Seattle have lost to, they are all a class apart from the 9'ers. Seattle to cover, even at -6.5 looks rock solid to me.

Good call kush

[TightEnd]

In the last 4 matches, Leicester have conceded the most headed attempts of any Premier League side - 12.

In the last 4 matches, Crystal Palace have racked up the most attempts coming from Set Plays of any Premier League side - 22.

Scot Dann anytime 12/1 with Betfred.

Unsure whether Hangeland or Delaney will play so will await team sheets before adding one of those two as well.

Looks a good home for a fiver.

question for ant040489

Palace at set pieces. a big threat, or no more than any other team?

the back four are all big, Jedinak is tall, bolasie is etc etc

i know i am inviting warantpeace again, i know

but i like palace at leicester this weekend at voer 2/1. we are a tiny side, apart from the two centre backs we don't have any size at all. vulnerable at set pieces every game as shown at southampton last weekend

conceded 17 goals this season, scored 19 and lethal on the counter but that plays more away from home than at home

 

[Peter-27]

Guys, Formula E has just had their Beijing shakedown session (a private session for the series to ensure the track configuration is okay for the series to use).

Mahindra Racing just tweeted the results and the two Renault e.Dams cars are WAY ahead of the field:

https://twitter.com/MahindraRacing/status/657478140130938880/photo/1

All cars are running around four seconds quicker than this session last year, so I don't really think we can blame sandbagging either.

As far as I can see, lolbrokes are the only firm offering Formula E odds, 4/1 on Buemi and 5/1 on Prost for the race win. This is a MASSIVE spot. Get on before the price goes. I've put £200 on each.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/motor-racing/formula-e/2015-formula-e-beijing-race-1/221132413/

[TightEnd]

the maximum permitted

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Sebastien Buemi
Race winner
Odds: 4/1
1 line at £25.00
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential return: £125.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000985

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Nicolas Prost
Race winner
Odds: 5/1
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £120.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50

[Peter-27]

the maximum permitted

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Sebastien Buemi
Race winner
Odds: 4/1
1 line at £25.00
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential return: £125.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000985

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Nicolas Prost
Race winner
Odds: 5/1
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £120.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50

Glad you were here to get on so quick, although those restrictions suck.

Prices have now been taken down 

[Tonji]

the maximum permitted

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Sebastien Buemi
Race winner
Odds: 4/1
1 line at £25.00
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential return: £125.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000985

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Nicolas Prost
Race winner
Odds: 5/1
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £120.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50

Glad you were here to get on so quick, although those restrictions suck.

Prices have now been taken down 

Scuy have the prices up for those that can.

[tikay]

the maximum permitted

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Sebastien Buemi
Race winner
Odds: 4/1
1 line at £25.00
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential return: £125.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000985

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Nicolas Prost
Race winner
Odds: 5/1
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £120.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50

Glad you were here to get on so quick, although those restrictions suck.

Prices have now been taken down 

Scuy have the prices up for those that can.

Same prices, too (presumably they use the same source), 5/1 & 4/1.

http://www.skybet.com/motor-sport/formula-e

Hurry, while stocks last.

[Peter-27]

the maximum permitted

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Sebastien Buemi
Race winner
Odds: 4/1
1 line at £25.00
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential return: £125.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000985

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Nicolas Prost
Race winner
Odds: 5/1
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £120.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50

Glad you were here to get on so quick, although those restrictions suck.

Prices have now been taken down 

Scuy have the prices up for those that can.

Same prices, too (presumably they use the same source), 5/1 & 4/1.

http://www.skybet.com/motor-sport/formula-e

Hurry, while stocks last.

It's when I see prices like this that I wish I had more capital to invest. Perhaps I shouldn't tie up my money elsewhere and save more for moments like this. Hands down, this is the best betting spot I've ever seen.

Tikay, I'm interested on your position here. As an employee of the aforementioned betting company, aren't you obligated to contact the betting division and point out that their prices may well be considerably off the mark? Although you must understand that I am not suggesting you should do this 

[DungBeetle]

I have no clue about Formula E.  Are we saying this is the equivalent of Rosberg and Hamilton going off at 4/1 and 5/1 for a race?

[Peter-27]

I have no clue about Formula E.  Are we saying this is the equivalent of Rosberg and Hamilton going off at 4/1 and 5/1 for a race?

From the looks of things in that shakedown session, yes. There is a chance others were holding back, but given that the entire grid were around four seconds quicker than this session last year, it looks unlikely to me.

If I were the bookie, I'd have Buemi at 10/11 and Prost at 11/10. Next would be Vergne at 3/1.