Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I have no clue about Formula E.  Are we saying this is the equivalent of Rosberg and Hamilton going off at 4/1 and 5/1 for a race?

Buemi now slashed to 5/2 at Scuy.

Cue "they must have taken a tenner" ripostes......

[DungBeetle]

I have no clue about Formula E.  Are we saying this is the equivalent of Rosberg and Hamilton going off at 4/1 and 5/1 for a race?

From the looks of things in that shakedown session, yes. There is a chance others were holding back, but given that the entire grid were around four seconds quicker than this session last year, it looks unlikely to me.

If I were the bookie, I'd have Buemi at 10/11 and Prost at 11/10. Next would be Vergne at 3/1.

But then I'd just lay you both of them for £1k each, have a tiny downside on Prost and then get a bonanza if someone back in the field is sandbagging or the cars are unreliable? 

[horseplayer]

Not sure about your overound percentage Peter wouldn't lay many bets with that book!

Regardless great spot again

[Peter-27]

I have no clue about Formula E.  Are we saying this is the equivalent of Rosberg and Hamilton going off at 4/1 and 5/1 for a race?

From the looks of things in that shakedown session, yes. There is a chance others were holding back, but given that the entire grid were around four seconds quicker than this session last year, it looks unlikely to me.

If I were the bookie, I'd have Buemi at 10/11 and Prost at 11/10. Next would be Vergne at 3/1.

But then I'd just lay you both of them for £1k each, have a tiny downside on Prost and then get a bonanza if someone back in the field is sandbagging or the cars are unreliable? 

Which is exactly the reason I don't create odds for a living  

I wouldn't expect reliability to be an issue, the Renault cars have looked pretty much bullet proof through pre-season testing. As for others sandbagging, it is possible, but I believe it's very unlikely. The way I'm reading this at the moment is that there is between a 80-95% chance that a Renault car will win the race.

[tikay]

the maximum permitted

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Sebastien Buemi
Race winner
Odds: 4/1
1 line at £25.00
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential return: £125.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000985

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Nicolas Prost
Race winner
Odds: 5/1
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £120.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50

Glad you were here to get on so quick, although those restrictions suck.

Prices have now been taken down 

Scuy have the prices up for those that can.

Same prices, too (presumably they use the same source), 5/1 & 4/1.

http://www.skybet.com/motor-sport/formula-e

Hurry, while stocks last.

It's when I see prices like this that I wish I had more capital to invest. Perhaps I shouldn't tie up my money elsewhere and save more for moments like this. Hands down, this is the best betting spot I've ever seen.

Tikay, I'm interested on your position here. As an employee of the aforementioned betting company, aren't you obligated to contact the betting division and point out that their prices may well be considerably off the mark? Although you must understand that I am not suggesting you should do this 

Absolutely not, never never never.

Technically, I work for SB&G, which own SkyBet & Sky Poker amongst others, but I'm engaged by Sky Poker, not SkyBet.

If I contacted them every time they got a price wrong - which would just be an opinion - I'd be writing to them dozens of times per day. It's money that changes prices, simple as that.  If they make a rick, they soon know & the price gets adjusted pretty quickly. 

There's a Chinese wall, too. I agreed early doors with the head of SkyBet that "Fred" would never bet with them, nor would I, that was the deal, & I've stuck to it 100%. As you know, helpful Freddies place a lot of bets on behalf of Fred, where Fred's accounts are closed or restricted, but we don't even allow that when it involves SkyBet. 

It cuts both ways, too, & I try to tread the line fairly & honourably to both parties.

It's obvious from reading the thread who has "multi-accounts" at Sky Bet (& other Firms), but that's nothing to do with me, & I leave well alone & let nature take it's course. SkyBet know what they are doling (for the most part) & don't need my interference, & I would not betray any of the blonde Members. It's just one of those areas where a fine line has to be trodden.

I did, when I first started with them, back in 2006, & at a time when my understanding of how online bookmaking was working these days was very naïve (I had not had a bet for 10 years), ask them to have another look at a few Accounts of friends of mine which had been closed/restricted, including one very prominent member of Fred. "Give me his name & we'll have a look" they said. His name was barely out of my mouth before the bloke burst out laughing. "You must be joking" he said. He knew of the chap extremely well already. So that was the last time I ever had any blonde based interaction with SkyBet. The chap in question probably still has various accounts with SkyBet, but that's none of my business, & I leave them to it. 

[Doobs]

I have no clue about Formula E.  Are we saying this is the equivalent of Rosberg and Hamilton going off at 4/1 and 5/1 for a race?

Buemi now slashed to 5/2 at Scuy.

Cue "they must have taken a tenner" ripostes......

If only they would lay a tenner. 

Get yourself to the ten to follow thread Tikay. 

[tikay]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Funny you should say this, I do think Stoke will finish 4th this year 

Yep, maybe I'm crazy 

it is expected to be wet throughout the austin gp weekend

should a safety car be shorter than 8/11?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/safety-car

in this weather, under 15 finishers at 2/1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers-3-way

it is also expected to be very humid. red bull have an upgrade available, but to take it would mean more grid penalties. do we think they'll take it? if so will it make any difference? (i am thinking back to red bull in humid singapore, going well)

can we oppose mercedes on the grounds of all the various uncertainties this weekend? for example vettel goes well in the wet. or is the mercedes unopposable this weekend?

Vettel to take fifth engine and 10-place grid penalty this weekend. Was always planned, he said

F1 bets coming later. The F1 weather forecast currently says that ONE FOOT of rain is expected over Friday/Saturday - surely this can't be right?! 

Tighty reported, here......


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=64933.msg2093054#new


....that the storm is likely to be an absolute monster.

I'm deffo never going to tell you how to bet on F1, but if it is going to be as bad as feared, I'd be extremely wary of betting too much in what may well be a tropical monsoon. There must even be a doubt that the race goes ahead if it heads in the direction of Austen, surely?

[sonour]

Sky are quite strange. They will lay very big bets to brand new accounts, maybe take three or four big bets and then will restrict you to peanuts not only whether you win or lose but also whether you are made sharp bets or not.

If you opened a brand new account and placed three or four large bets where Sky were not top price and where the odds did not beat Betfair you would still be restricted.

It appears that they don't want to lay big bets even to mug punters.

[tikay]

Sky are quite strange. They will lay very big bets to brand new accounts, maybe take three or four big bets and then will restrict you to peanuts not only whether you win or lose but also whether you are made sharp bets or not.

If you opened a brand new account and placed three or four large bets where Sky were not top price and where the odds did not beat Betfair you would still be restricted.

It appears that they don't want to lay big bets even to mug punters.

I have no idea what criteria they use to restrict or not, Lisa, but I can assure you they do lay VERY big bets indeed to some punters, real nosebleed stuff.  I could speculate on how they decide, but I'd best not.

[Peter-27]

US GP bets:

Race Winner - Valtteri Bottas @ 37/1 with the exchange. A bit of an odd choice you might think. The Williams should work well on this circuit, and with a crazy weekend expected (one foot of rain forecast across all three days), along with both Ferrari's having 10 place grid penalties, this may well be the opportunity for a non-Mercedes/Ferrari car to take the win. Suggest £5.

Podium Finish - Sergio Perez @ 14/1 with Scuy. Similar reasons to above, the chance for someone to shine is there this weekend. Do we think 14/1 is palp though? If not, suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/podium-finish

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ EVS with betfayre. Austin is a similar track to the previous race in Sochi where Max qualified 9th & finished 10th. I expect him to be in the hunt once again this weekend. Suggest £20.

Points Finish - Jenson Button @ 7/2 with 365. McLaren know they have nothing to lose this season, they'll try something a little bit different in the race with strategy given how wet we're expecting it to be. Suggest £10.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 7/4 with betaway/hills/choral/lads. I believe there is some thin value here. I would have been on the fence at 6/4. 7/4 works for me though. Suggest £20.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with ONLY beewin (sorry Tighty!). Why is he 6/4 while Nico is 11/13? Suggest £25.

To reach Q3 - Nasr & Ericsson both at 5/1 with lads. Both drivers have previously demonstrated skill in the wet weather in their careers to date, suggest £5 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Felipe Massa @ 13/2 with choral. 6/1 with others is also okay. Arguably the least talented in the wet. Suggest £10.

It's rare that we head into an F1 weekend knowing that it will be wet, almost for certain ... I'm trying to take advantage of that. With Hurricane Patricia now officially the "strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded", there is a chance that the race weekend will be abandoned completely. I'm assuming in this situation that the bets will be voided. Interestingly, this cyclone is also threatening the Mexican GP next weekend too.

Meanwhile, for Formula E, you've already had my race win suggestions. I'm going to hold off on a championship prediction until we've at least seen some official sessions.

[Peter-27]

the maximum permitted

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Sebastien Buemi
Race winner
Odds: 4/1
1 line at £25.00
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential return: £125.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000985

Single
2015 Formula E - Beijing - Race 1 Formula E
Nicolas Prost
Race winner
Odds: 5/1
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £120.00
Time: 23/10/2015 10:16:50

Glad you were here to get on so quick, although those restrictions suck.

Prices have now been taken down 

Scuy have the prices up for those that can.

Same prices, too (presumably they use the same source), 5/1 & 4/1.

http://www.skybet.com/motor-sport/formula-e

Hurry, while stocks last.

It's when I see prices like this that I wish I had more capital to invest. Perhaps I shouldn't tie up my money elsewhere and save more for moments like this. Hands down, this is the best betting spot I've ever seen.

Tikay, I'm interested on your position here. As an employee of the aforementioned betting company, aren't you obligated to contact the betting division and point out that their prices may well be considerably off the mark? Although you must understand that I am not suggesting you should do this 

Absolutely not, never never never.

Technically, I work for SB&G, which own SkyBet & Sky Poker amongst others, but I'm engaged by Sky Poker, not SkyBet.

If I contacted them every time they got a price wrong - which would just be an opinion - I'd be writing to them dozens of times per day. It's money that changes prices, simple as that.  If they make a rick, they soon know & the price gets adjusted pretty quickly. 

There's a Chinese wall, too. I agreed early doors with the head of SkyBet that "Fred" would never bet with them, nor would I, that was the deal, & I've stuck to it 100%. As you know, helpful Freddies place a lot of bets on behalf of Fred, where Fred's accounts are closed or restricted, but we don't even allow that when it involves SkyBet. 

It cuts both ways, too, & I try to tread the line fairly & honourably to both parties.

It's obvious from reading the thread who has "multi-accounts" at Sky Bet (& other Firms), but that's nothing to do with me, & I leave well alone & let nature take it's course. SkyBet know what they are doling (for the most part) & don't need my interference, & I would not betray any of the blonde Members. It's just one of those areas where a fine line has to be trodden.

I did, when I first started with them, back in 2006, & at a time when my understanding of how online bookmaking was working these days was very naïve (I had not had a bet for 10 years), ask them to have another look at a few Accounts of friends of mine which had been closed/restricted, including one very prominent member of Fred. "Give me his name & we'll have a look" they said. His name was barely out of my mouth before the bloke burst out laughing. "You must be joking" he said. He knew of the chap extremely well already. So that was the last time I ever had any blonde based interaction with SkyBet. The chap in question probably still has various accounts with SkyBet, but that's none of my business, & I leave them to it. 

This makes for interesting reading, I appreciate you taking the time to respond.

[TightEnd]

no thoguhts on these two, which i asked your opinion on yesterday?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/safety-car

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers

8/11 yes and 11/8 under 16

[Peter-27]

no thoguhts on these two, which i asked your opinion on yesterday?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/safety-car

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers

8/11 yes and 11/8 under 16

Apologies, forgot them.

Not keen on the safety car bet, mainly because it's under EVS and I don't tend to look those bets. However, given the chance of precipitation on Sunday is now 100%, I guess it is value. I'd not be keen on it going against my name though 

I think the number of classified drivers bet is priced correctly. The barriers on this circuit aren't particularly close to the track, and while I do expect to see incidents, most will just be spins where the driver can rejoin the race.

[TightEnd]

these are the bets we can place

i am also mindful that we should go easy this weekend, as tikay points out on the previous page.

Nico Hulkenberg (Ind) United States Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
7/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

Felipe Nasr (Sau) United States Grand Prix To Reach Qualifying Session Three
5/1
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Returns: £30.00

Marcus Ericsson (Sau) United States Grand Prix To Reach Qualifying Session Three
5/1
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Returns: £30.00

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
United States Grand Prix
Not To Finish The Race
   Massa, Felipe   6/1   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 70.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 70.00

[Peter-27]

i am also mindful that we should go easy this weekend, as tikay points out on the previous page.

Is my assumption wrong that no race would void all bets?