Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Does this mean we're off eight dog racing at Perry Barr then?

Venue announced on Monday

[DMorgan]

Not sure if this would be a palp but Hills at 11/8 Seahawks -1.5 @ Vikings

Generally available prices are between 5/6 and 19/20

Rec £200

Edit: OP says hills is fine for Tikay to get on, is this info currently accurate? It mentions that fred doesn't have 888 but this account was made recently if I remember correctly?

They look like they have messed the lot up.  They make them odds on favourites but +1.5 is evens.

I think they wanted to start at -2, but put the sign in wrong, so every price is for a score that is 4 points away.  I'd be very wary of putting £200 on.

Does the price still being there 4 hours later weaken their case for a possible palp?

In other Hills news, they are standout best price at 11/10 for Eagles +8.5 @ Patriots, everyone else in the 5/6-10/11 range. Eagles +9.5 trades at 8/11 on Betfair

Rec £100

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/point-spread

[Doobs]

Not sure if this would be a palp but Hills at 11/8 Seahawks -1.5 @ Vikings

Generally available prices are between 5/6 and 19/20

Rec £200

Edit: OP says hills is fine for Tikay to get on, is this info currently accurate? It mentions that fred doesn't have 888 but this account was made recently if I remember correctly?

They look like they have messed the lot up.  They make them odds on favourites but +1.5 is evens.

I think they wanted to start at -2, but put the sign in wrong, so every price is for a score that is 4 points away.  I'd be very wary of putting £200 on.

Does the price still being there 4 hours later weaken their case for a possible palp?

In other Hills news, they are standout best price at 11/10 for Eagles +8.5 @ Patriots, everyone else in the 5/6-10/11 range. Eagles +9.5 trades at 8/11 on Betfair

Rec £100

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/point-spread

Left the apprentice in charge, should do a £100 double?


 

[DMorgan]

If the first leg gets palped is the second leg settled as a single?

As far as I'm aware the only reason to place multiples is to keep the account looking punty or to get bigger limits on smaller markets, but this effect would be nullified by placing a big bet on a palp* I think?

Edit: potential palp*

[sonour]

If the first leg gets palped is the second leg settled as a single?

As far as I'm aware the only reason to place multiples is to keep the account looking punty or to get bigger limits on smaller markets, but this effect would be nullified by placing a big bet on a palp* I think?

Edit: potential palp*

 Those aren't the only reasons to place doubles. If you have an edge in each individual bet then by placing them in doubles you are multiplying that edge.

[rfgqqabc]

If the first leg gets palped is the second leg settled as a single?

As far as I'm aware the only reason to place multiples is to keep the account looking punty or to get bigger limits on smaller markets, but this effect would be nullified by placing a big bet on a palp* I think?

Edit: potential palp*

 Those aren't the only reasons to place doubles. If you have an edge in each individual bet then by placing them in doubles you are multiplying that edge.

Took me to a trader for a reasonable amount of time and laid the double.

[DMorgan]

Those aren't the only reasons to place doubles. If you have an edge in each individual bet then by placing them in doubles you are multiplying that edge.

Wow, this is like....huge aha moment! I always thought that because the prices were the same the EV was the same and multiples only jacked up the variance which is what makes them so appealing the ice creams looking to hit the jackpot

So whenever we have identified more than one profitable bet with the same bookie we should always be looking to get multiples on? Isn't this a huge rick in the bookies strategy to weed out winners? If in their view multiples = punter (which is a view that is probably correct for the vast majority of their customers) then by taking every opportunity we can to put multiples on we should be able to increase the EV of the bets while also keeping accounts unrestricted? It'll increase the variance but assuming that we stake correctly then thats not really an issue.

This is the EV calculation that I came up with for my two NFL bets, would be great if someone could double check it for me:

Getting 11/8 about a true 5/6 shot in a £100 single nets us a profit of £137.50 the 54.5% of the time that it wins and loses us £100 the 45.5% of the time that it loses so EV = (0.545*137.50)-(0.455*100) = £29.44

Getting 11/10 about a true 10/11 shot in a £100 single nets us a profit of £110 the 52.4% of the time that it wins and loses us £100 the 47.6% of the time that it loses so EV = (0.524*110)-(0.476*100) = £10.04

So the EV of placing two £100 singles is £39.48

£200 double on an 11/8 and an 11/10 shot we profit £797.50 the 28.3% of the time that we land the double and we lose £200 the 71.7% of the time that we don't so EV = (0.286*797.50)-(0.714*200) = £85.29

[Micko]

What's First Mohican doing at Wolverhampton tonight at 11/1? Tom Queally on board. The only runner for both Alan King and the jockey.

Seems odd.

Great spot this Tal

[RickBFA]

Those aren't the only reasons to place doubles. If you have an edge in each individual bet then by placing them in doubles you are multiplying that edge.

Wow, this is like....huge aha moment! I always thought that because the prices were the same the EV was the same and multiples only jacked up the variance which is what makes them so appealing the ice creams looking to hit the jackpot

So whenever we have identified more than one profitable bet with the same bookie we should always be looking to get multiples on? Isn't this a huge rick in the bookies strategy to weed out winners? If in their view multiples = punter (which is a view that is probably correct for the vast majority of their customers) then by taking every opportunity we can to put multiples on we should be able to increase the EV of the bets while also keeping accounts unrestricted? It'll increase the variance but assuming that we stake correctly then thats not really an issue.

This is the EV calculation that I came up with for my two NFL bets, would be great if someone could double check it for me:

Getting 11/8 about a true 5/6 shot in a £100 single nets us a profit of £137.50 the 54.5% of the time that it wins and loses us £100 the 45.5% of the time that it loses so EV = (0.545*137.50)-(0.455*100) = £29.44

Getting 11/10 about a true 10/11 shot in a £100 single nets us a profit of £110 the 52.4% of the time that it wins and loses us £100 the 47.6% of the time that it loses so EV = (0.524*110)-(0.476*100) = £10.04

So the EV of placing two £100 singles is £39.48

£200 double on an 11/8 and an 11/10 shot we profit £797.50 the 28.3% of the time that we land the double and we lose £200 the 71.7% of the time that we don't so EV = (0.286*797.50)-(0.714*200) = £85.29

There is a great post on here from the dim and distant past on the merits of multiple bets when each has an edge (from Edgascoigne I think). I sometimes think we should have a thread dedicated to +EV multiples. It would give some nice sweats and be a lot of fun (probably the ice cream in me coming to the surface).

[TightEnd]

Dung

another good result yesterday

22 points now, we are long on the spreads at 35.5

[slowmo]

+5? not really. might be if The rams were still running the ball well but Gurley has gone cold too

i intend to spend the next 36 hours putting myself off the Eagles +9 against to the Patriots, who are minus lewis, edelman and gronkowski. the Eagles though are minus a lot, every week

Hi Tikay , Hi Guys

first time post on here ( am I allowed as I have posted twice a year total for the last 12 years ?). 
FWIW Tighty , I am trying to put myself off the Patriots giving up the points. Philadelphia have put in two abject displays , are in disarray and Brady and the Pats are the worst team to face for them at the moment as they always  find a way to get the job done even  with second, third string players .  Actually considering the over 49 points in the game option as Bradford might be back for Philly so they might actually score some points this week.   The overs have hit 8 out of 10 times the Patriots have played teams with a losing record. Be interested in your thoughts

[TightEnd]

+5? not really. might be if The rams were still running the ball well but Gurley has gone cold too

i intend to spend the next 36 hours putting myself off the Eagles +9 against to the Patriots, who are minus lewis, edelman and gronkowski. the Eagles though are minus a lot, every week

Hi Tikay , Hi Guys

first time post on here ( am I allowed as I have posted twice a year total for the last 12 years ?). 
FWIW Tighty , I am trying to put myself off the Patriots giving up the points. Philadelphia have put in two abject displays , are in disarray and Brady and the Pats are the worst team to face for them at the moment as they always  find a way to get the job done even  with second, third string players .  Actually considering the over 49 points in the game option as Bradford might be back for Philly so they might actually score some points this week.   The overs have hit 8 out of 10 times the Patriots have played teams with a losing record. Be interested in your thoughts

Hi Simon

if you wanted to put a recommendation up we'd put it on, automatic for first time posters on here

i think we've had preferences expressed for Philly +8.5/9 and Patriots -9 now....

overs does seem sensible to me

[TightEnd]

what are we supporting later?

Sheffield Wednesday v Derby   derby   11/8   30
Total Peterborough Goals   over 3.5   9/2   20

at 1 pm we can also get a sight of 

Championship top scorer   Joao   150/1   10

[Tal]

What's First Mohican doing at Wolverhampton tonight at 11/1? Tom Queally on board. The only runner for both Alan King and the jockey.

Seems odd.

Great spot this Tal

Glad you got on

[TightEnd]

for dan morgan who asked yesterday i have updated the first post of the thread

tikay does not have

Pinnacle
Betdaq
Unibet
Winner
betbright
32 red
racebets
betway


closed/can't use

boylesports
stan james
sky bet
bwin

heavily restricted

bet365
paddy power

all good (but not all funded all of the time)

888
totesport
coral
ladbrokes (sub market restrictions)
sportingbet
bet victor
william hill
betfair
betfairsportsbook
matchbook