Tips for Tikay

[Weetabix]

chompy, isn't that the only way you can work it out? 1-2 djoko evs muz to make final then muzza price in the final? Surely you can only factor in the prices of both to make the final plus the price on murray to beat djoko?

[Chompy]

That's one way of working it out. Not sure it's the right or only way though.

Turn it another way. What price would you want about Murray now to win it if you knew he had to face Djok in the final?

[Weetabix]

I would want 5/1+ on Murray knowing djoko had played himself into top form, on the win part.  I took 9/2 during Wimbledon as e/w terms were so appealing with number 2 seed locked up and the pair of them way ahead. Plus the added bonus of djoko not performing.

[Doobs]

Just because Djokavic has made the final doesn't mean he is in top form.  He may have just stumbled his way there with 5 setters in the semi and quarter final.  Also we now know that Murray is in top class form, which we weren't as aware of pre Wimbledon. 

5/1+ is just a nonsense price on Murray to beat Djokavic in a final right now.  They are now much closer than they have been in a long time. I'd take as much as you would lay anyway. 

[Jamier-Host]

No, he's saying 5/1 to reach final and then beat Djok. Obv could lose before final too.

[tikay]

Second ODI Saturday at Lords

Pakistan's batting is weak for ODIs. Mixture of inexperience and out of form in the top order

top 4 is

Azhar. captain and going to be favourite. top scorer yesterday
Sharjeel. great if he comes off but bit hit and miss
Hafeez. might as well be batting with a bin lid in his current form. might hit the ball then, but would probably edge it
barbar at 4 is 21, talented lad but at the stage where he's scoring 40s and 50s and not going on for big ones

then we have wicketkeeper batsman Sarfraz Ahmed, batting at 5 who is priced at 10-1 with Ladbrokes.

He scored 55 at Southampton and has over 1100 ODI runs in his 45 career innings to date.

he's the T20 captain, could be in for a lot of overs and scores fast

10-1 is a big price with such a fragile top order above him. Ladbrokes have him down as batting 7 or 8. batting 5 he should be something like 11/2 -6/1

link is

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-pakistan/2nd-odi/top-pakistan-batsman

Whether he succeeds remains to be seen, but with Pakistan 22/3 and with Ahmed at the crease, this bet is ideally placed.

Been away for a few days, but just wanted to say thanks for this one, Tighty, hosed up a treat.

Thanks to Ant, too, for getting Fred on. This was the bet I wandered up to the Ladbrokes Shop to place actually. Would have been a nice way to break my virginity.


FWIW, to avoid suggestions of aftertiming, Tighty have Somerset to win some One Day Cup cricket thing in his Road to Riches column on Saturday, & I've had a bit of that, too, @ 4/1.

Somerset play today, I think, in the semi final.

[Weetabix]

I wouldn't want to take less than evs to make the final on Murray,2/1 v djoko isn't as far fetched as you are making out, I don't know why you think he would be 6/4, if you were to back both players and they make the final you would have huge value on djoko but no value on Murray apart from the fact you have a free shot on the win part if you backed e/w.  We were aware Murray was in top class form pre Wimbledon, he won queens and played great in making the French open final.  I hope djoko is eliminated before the final but feel he will play himself in if he isn't eliminated early doors.  I'm also hoping Murray hasn't emptied the tank, he was poor in last weeks final, although cilic played great, muzza looked like he had emptied the tank. Djoko will be fresh and ready to go.  I won't be laying you 5/1 doobs on Murray 5/1 in the final.

[Doobs]

That's one way of working it out. Not sure it's the right or only way though.

Turn it another way. What price would you want about Murray now to win it if you knew he had to face Djok in the final?

I think it is the right way.  I think 6/4 may be too big if anything.  They are pretty close right now, and Djok faces a different Murray than 12 months ago, and given the tail off in form, I would suggest Murray faces a different Djok.  

I think the bets are ok, just that 11/2 is much closer to the right price than 3/1.  Where is Arbboy, can't someone let him out?

[Weetabix]

Do you really believe they are closer than ever before?  I think the gulf between the two is fairly big, Murray has just pulled way clear of the other players but he is not in the same league as djoko. The last two slams were fairly straight forward dropping one set in each, the gulf looks big in my opinion.  Nothing coming from the chasing pack so it's easy to say we have a big 2, it's been a big 1 for some time.

Simon lurking in round 3, think we will find out where he is at physically after this marathon.

[Doobs]

Betfair has them 6/4 and 9/4.  Surely that is evidence enough? 

You can't say that the evidence for Murray's form is the same now as it was after Queen's.  I backed Murray at Wimbledon, so it isn't like I thought he was a no hoper.  Just that now we know he is definitely at the top of his game rather than thinking he was.

As an aside, I know somebody mentioned the coral offer before.  I checked it out, and it is money back as a free bet that has to be on tennis and has to be within 4 days.  That feels very much meh to me.  Djok is 5/4 when he should be 6/4 and Murray is 7/4 when he should be 9/4.  Then the free bet has much less value than normal (a lot of tennis bets are value because of the each way bit and each way is terrible use of free bets, as is backing Djok or Murray). The hills racing one is much better as you can frequently get much closer to the right price and the free bets aren't limitted by sport.

[Weetabix]

Murray has been in great form, agree completely. He wasn't far from being knocked out in the Olympics by Steve johnson, yet again dug himself out. He has had a tough few months and after last weeks defeat it wouldn't surprise me if he came in here a little flat, it happens, look at djoko after he finally won the French, taking Murray to the cleaners. Should we just be looking at the great form of the last few weeks or should we assume djoko will be ready to go after skipping Cincinnati, this could have been a smart move,? I think we will see early on what kind of mood djoko is in.  Some say he has a wrist issue, who knows.  If djoko makes the final I would be fairly confident he has arrived in good shape, physically he has to fresh as you can be given the rest.  Don't know why Murray bothered playing last week.

Any thought a on this hector?

Any recommendations on possible quarter winners?

[hhyftrftdr]

It's a bit 'Chinese whispers' esque so not sure its the type of stuff for Fred, but a friends brother is a semi pro footballer at the lower levels. Frickley are 5 defeats from 5 and lost 4-0 at home in the last game, and since then he's said their manager and better players have walked out.

They are away at Whitby today, 3pm. Whitby 17/20, or 85/40 -1 with BV.

Lovely fish and chips too.

[Chompy]

If Murray plays Djok in the final there's no way he goes off bigger than 6-4. Would take 2.48 and under in a match bet with anyone that wants the overs?

^ felt like I was channelling arb there, yikes!

The 9-2 I posted last night was wrong btw. If we assume Djok to make the final price is correct at 1-2, then for 6-1 to be the right price about the double, Murray would have to be a 3.66-1 shot to win the whole thing, with the proviso that he has to meet Djok in the final. Don't see how 6-1 can be anything but value.

[Chompy]

It's a bit 'Chinese whispers' esque so not sure its the type of stuff for Fred, but a friends brother is a semi pro footballer at the lower levels. Frickley are 5 defeats from 5 and lost 4-0 at home in the last game, and since then he's said their manager and better players have walked out.

They are away at Whitby today, 3pm. Whitby 17/20, or 85/40 -1 with BV.

Lovely fish and chips too.

Thanks for the 2-1 City top Prem scorers pointer btw, a cracking spot.

[hhyftrftdr]

It's a bit 'Chinese whispers' esque so not sure its the type of stuff for Fred, but a friends brother is a semi pro footballer at the lower levels. Frickley are 5 defeats from 5 and lost 4-0 at home in the last game, and since then he's said their manager and better players have walked out.

They are away at Whitby today, 3pm. Whitby 17/20, or 85/40 -1 with BV.

Lovely fish and chips too.

Thanks for the 2-1 City top Prem scorers pointer btw, a cracking spot.

Haha no worries long way to go but 2 ahead already is a good start, and Sane, Gundogan and Jesus still to come in