Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2016/oct/25/nba-2016-17-season-predictions-warriors-mvp

Decent NBA preview here for the UK press.  No idea who any of the writers are.

[nellberg]

4th ODi tomorrow between India and New Zealand, I like Mishra to take over 1.5 wickets. Koral 7/4. Recc £20.

http://www.bettingkingdom.co.uk/betting-tips/cricket/ODI/4th-ODI-India-v-New-Zealand-Amit-Mishra-over-1-5-wickets/74109

5/4 now (when i found it). i have left it pending instructions

5/4 correct price so no bet. I was only allowed a liability of £20 so was a longshot for price to hold.

We no longer have Badbrokes, no? They've boosted Cook to 4/1 and Tamim to 9/2 for the 2nd test, both industry best. Cook didn't score many in 1st innings but is generally a god in these conditions. Tamim has now won top Bangla bat 4/5 against England, and 3/3 at home v England. Wouldn't put anyone off either of those bets. As it's a boost they won't allow much on, but they normally hold the price.

no tikay lost Ladbrokes i am afraid.

by the by. Were Bangladesh to win the toss and bat in Dhaka, what would you think about Bangladesh at 6/1 to win the second test?

I was all set to back Bangladesh for the 2nd test, but the draw is being clipped in constantly. Is it going to rain?

Even so I'm very tempted to back Bangladesh. Looks like they'll drop a seamer (Islam) for Mosadeek to bat 8, so strengthen their batting and another part-time spinner. They'll have learned a load from 1st test. They hadn't played a test in 14 months so even the established players may have needed the run. They know the young spinner is up to it, Sabbhir at 7 can handle the pressure and Rabbi can reverse swing it. If they'd have reviewed Ali (when on one) or won the toss and batted then they could easily have won. They are very competitive in these conditions. You'd expect a similar pitch to Chittagong?

From England's point of view you'd expect Cook/and or Root not to have such a quiet game with the bat, but talk is they'll rotate bowlers. One option I saw mentioned was Ball and Ansari in for Woakes and Broad. Ball's cutters may work well, not sure if he can reverse it. The 4th spinner seems a bit much, they'll end up bowling him for the sake of it. Hameed in, Duckett down to 4, Ballance out is another possibility with one eye on India.

Unless it's going to lash down 6/1 is a bet

i think Bangladesh will be competitive and perhaps not quite so stage struck if they get in sight of the line

similar conditions for the second test, and they probably win the first if England bat last

i have heard Buttler for Ballance and rest Broad and maybe Bairstow. they want to get a look at Ansari and Hameed before India

rotation given there are six tests in a row coming is fair enough

Yeh, now is the time to rotate. Bayliss is big on Buttler but he'd have to change his mindset to be successful in tests. We need another right hander in top 6 against Ashwin so worth a go.

I didn't mind how Bangla went at the end, the length of their tail was always an issue. first time around Shakib messed it up, still had Sabbhir in the sheds when he had his brainfade. If they do bring in Mosadeek then they have 8 they can rely on and Mehidi apparently can bat (didn't show much in 1st test). Barring significant rain 6/1 can't be a bad bet.

Weather forecast has some scattered thunder storms on thursday/friday, then getting better as the test goes on. There was torrential rain in the lead-up to the 1st ODI and the drainage at Dhaka was amazing, was basically under water the day before and when they rocked up to play you'd never have known.

[TightEnd]

racing posters

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-gold-cup/winner?dcmp=ortwt1

a long long long way to go but doesn't Thistlecrack look very special?

6/1 a fair price? too short? (i assume he's a novice but would go for the gold cup for sure?)

[Doobs]

racing posters

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-gold-cup/winner?dcmp=ortwt1

a long long long way to go but doesn't Thistlecrack look very special?

6/1 a fair price? too short? (i assume he's a novice but would go for the gold cup for sure?)

Looks a long way out.  Say he gets there and looks amongst the best horses, is he about 3/1? 4/1?  Seems like you are taking a very short price on he gets there and is amongst the best horses. 

Not for me at all. 

[Marky147]

Gold Cup is the plan, but agree with Doobs.

He has beat a decent horse without coming off the bit, and jumped very well, albeit at his own pace.

Hope he wins it, as it would be great for racing, and I love Colin Tizzard.

[tikay]

Gold Cup is the plan, but agree with Doobs.

He has beat a decent horse without coming off the bit, and jumped very well, albeit at his own pace.

Hope he wins it, as it would be great for racing, and I love Colin Tizzard.

The other worry is that he has to get there first. So much can go wrong for a young Chaser in 4 or 5 months.

Would love to se it do well though, there's a certain romance & charisma about the horse & connections.

[Marky147]

Gold Cup is the plan, but agree with Doobs.

He has beat a decent horse without coming off the bit, and jumped very well, albeit at his own pace.

Hope he wins it, as it would be great for racing, and I love Colin Tizzard.

The other worry is that he has to get there first. So much can go wrong for a young Chaser in 4 or 5 months.

Would love to se it do well though, there's a certain romance & charisma about the horse & connections.

He's 8, so not so young for a novice, which is why they've gone chasing this year (I think)

Would be great, for sure. No novice winner for 40 years, and then 2 in 3 Gold Cups.

[Doobs]

Gold Cup is the plan, but agree with Doobs.

He has beat a decent horse without coming off the bit, and jumped very well, albeit at his own pace.

Hope he wins it, as it would be great for racing, and I love Colin Tizzard.

The other worry is that he has to get there first. So much can go wrong for a young Chaser in 4 or 5 months.

Would love to se it do well though, there's a certain romance & charisma about the horse & connections.

He's 8, so not so young for a novice, which is why they've gone chasing this year (I think)

Would be great, for sure. No novice winner for 40 years, and then 2 in 3 Gold Cups.

I'd also worry that they have a top notch long distance hurdler.  If he gets beat or starts jumping badly, there is going to be this big temptation to just do what he is really good at.  "The horse owes us nothing etc."  So many hurdles* to get past just to turn up on the day.

* apologies

[Marky147]

Gold Cup is the plan, but agree with Doobs.

He has beat a decent horse without coming off the bit, and jumped very well, albeit at his own pace.

Hope he wins it, as it would be great for racing, and I love Colin Tizzard.

The other worry is that he has to get there first. So much can go wrong for a young Chaser in 4 or 5 months.

Would love to se it do well though, there's a certain romance & charisma about the horse & connections.

He's 8, so not so young for a novice, which is why they've gone chasing this year (I think)

Would be great, for sure. No novice winner for 40 years, and then 2 in 3 Gold Cups.

I'd also worry that they have a top notch long distance hurdler.  If he gets beat or starts jumping badly, there is going to be this big temptation to just do what he is really good at.  "The horse owes us nothing etc."  So many hurdles* to get past just to turn up on the day.

* apologies

Yes, there is the Big Bucks MkII to be avoided, too.

I never saw Big Bucks jumping fences, so don't know if he ever looked any good over a fence.

Guess the first test will be Cheltenham, which is unlikely to be like the race today.

[ripple11]

on another subject

the government gave the go ahead for a heathrow third runway today

Zac Goldsmith has tendered his resignation as MP for Richmond Park

so a by-election

Goldsmith will stand as an independent

so you have

- a split tory vote
- a constituency that voted 74% remain in the referendum
- a lib dem party that is quite a formidable local campaigning machine (see Witney, con majority 25k to 5k)

if anyone sees LD's odds against when the by election market goes up, its back up the truck time.

Lib Dems will be winning a ninth seat.  (it was LD til 2010)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Park_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

might need to wait

from Tom Newton Dunn on Twitter....

I understand PM will give Zac Goldsmith a free run in Richmond by-election, Tories will not field a candidate. Straight fight with Libs.

[TightEnd]

would be a surprise, but the Lib Dems should still be beating a Leave candidate in a head to head in this constituency. if they threw the kitchen sink at wtiney, they will be throwing the house and contents at richmond.

market is up anyway http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/richmond-park-by-election/winning-party

[ripple11]

would be a surprise, but the Lib Dems should still be beating a Leave candidate in a head to head in this constituency. if they threw the kitchen sink at wtiney, they will be throwing the house and contents at richmond.

market is up anyway http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/richmond-park-by-election/winning-party

Would be a surprise...but if it did happen I think I would still back Zac....those "one a minute planes" are more of a constant reminder than the past referendum.

[Weetabix]

Wta finals, stand out price on Madison Keys, she has it in her own hands if she is to qualify. 20/1 still available but I doubt this will last the next hour.  See oddschecker.

[TightEnd]

would be a surprise, but the Lib Dems should still be beating a Leave candidate in a head to head in this constituency. if they threw the kitchen sink at wtiney, they will be throwing the house and contents at richmond.

market is up anyway http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/richmond-park-by-election/winning-party

Would be a surprise...but if it did happen I think I would still back Zac....those "one a minute planes" are more of a constant reminder than the past referendum.

yes but Farron is implacably opposed to 3rd heathrow too.

in practice there is a commons majority for it so neither zac or Lib dems can stop it. the courts might stop it or mean its a long time away, certainly.

[TightEnd]

Wta finals, stand out price on Madison Keys, she has it in her own hands if she is to qualify. 20/1 still available but I doubt this will last the next hour.  See oddschecker.

explain more please?

while i try and find it on oddschecker