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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330751 times)
BigAdz
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« Reply #128970 on: July 13, 2017, 11:35:56 AM »



Think I read somewhere this week Tom Seagull has now gone 75 tips since his last winner in the Post.....What a loser!! Grin
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ripple11
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« Reply #128971 on: July 13, 2017, 11:39:00 AM »

I'm actually going to go out and not watch the match today. Too nervous. It has been a really fun sweat and cool that so many Blondes were also on and Konta has progressed on the opposite side of the draw.

Nice article on Rybarikova from a couple of days ago
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2017/07/wimbledon-rybarikova-vandeweghe-ostapenko-konta-muguruza/67477/

And tipped up here vs 'over-rated' Muguruza for the match today
https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/wimbledon/muguruza-v-rybarikova-odds-betting-preview-wimbledon-day-10-tips-130717-778.html


Furthermore, Rybarikova also schooled Muguruza 6-3 6-1 on grass several years ago in Birmingham and it is incredibly difficult to make a case for Muguruza at such a low price, unless you are somehow convinced Rybarikova will choke at her first Grand Slam semi-final.

Mug around 1/3 does seem very short.....maybe its all this laying off  Smiley
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #128972 on: July 13, 2017, 11:41:02 AM »



Think I read somewhere this week Tom Seagull has now gone 75 tips since his last winner in the Post.....What a loser!! Grin


I knew he was on a bad run , didn't realise it was that dire. Good job I am very selective on his tips.

Still think he is a good tipster , we can all associate with those long losing runs !
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winshoes
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« Reply #128973 on: July 13, 2017, 11:51:51 AM »

Does anyone think that Swansea are going to struggle this year?
Struggled for most of last season.
Cork gone to Burnley.
Llorente missing the start of the season and linked elsewhere.
Sigurdsson misses trip to USA because of all speculation.
Defeat to Barnet with a strong squad.
I feel that 9/4 to be relegated is value.
Also at a bigger price 10/1 to finish bottom seems too big.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom
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arbboy
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« Reply #128974 on: July 13, 2017, 11:54:05 AM »


I am not convinced there is a great deal of difference between backing two 10-1 chances for half stakes in one race and two 10-1 chances for half stakes in successive races.  I don't think he has proved it either.   Isn't it the number of bets between a win that counts and not the number of races between wins? 

FWIW I think betting many horses in good each way races is much better than betting one runner in every race, but that isn't for the reasons he discusses.

Also if you do bet two runners in a race, then you do get some benefit as assuming genuine 10/1 chances, chances of going two bets without a winner in successive races is 0.826 [(=10/11)^2].  If they were in the same race it is 0.818 [=9/11]. 

Number of bets WITH THAT EDGE is the key for me not the number of races.  I will have as many bets in a race as possible which earn me money.  I have backed 14 horses ew once in a 16 runner hcap.
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arbboy
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« Reply #128975 on: July 13, 2017, 12:03:02 PM »



Think I read somewhere this week Tom Seagull has now gone 75 tips since his last winner in the Post.....What a loser!! Grin

It is incredible given he gets the pick of the mythical prices no one else can get.  Given the prices he backs though it is similar to backing a number on a roulette wheel within reason and you can easily go 250 bets without having a winner on a single roulette number.  I think he is massively over rated as a judge and as the RP has got more and more in bed with bookmakers for multiple income streams i think Bruce (RP editor) probably likes the fact that he is putting up plenty of losers as it helps the RP app betting income streams they get from bookmakers.  It is in their interests to put up losers imo given their current business model.
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #128976 on: July 13, 2017, 12:06:16 PM »

Does anyone think that Swansea are going to struggle this year?
Struggled for most of last season.
Cork gone to Burnley.
Llorente missing the start of the season and linked elsewhere.
Sigurdsson misses trip to USA because of all speculation.
Defeat to Barnet with a strong squad.
I feel that 9/4 to be relegated is value.
Also at a bigger price 10/1 to finish bottom seems too big.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

I tipped them for relegation last season and they just wriggled out of it. Think they will struggle again this season. Price is sure to drop should they lose Sigurdsson (and it's only a matter of time before they come to their senses and sell)

There are 3 worse teams than Swansea, but it feels like we're due an 'established' club dropping down.
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bergeroo
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« Reply #128977 on: July 13, 2017, 01:28:58 PM »

Johnny Mac coming out with the cliches. It is possible he didn't even know who Rybarikova was a couple of days ago or even this morning!
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Doobs
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« Reply #128978 on: July 13, 2017, 01:42:09 PM »

Johnny Mac coming out with the cliches. It is possible he didn't even know who Rybarikova was a couple of days ago or even this morning!

She came out with the strapping on and looked like she was limping a bit and I was thinking could we get a retirement...

I like John, there are some truly woeful ones on the red button. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
ripple11
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« Reply #128979 on: July 13, 2017, 01:57:56 PM »

Bloody hell....Mug had her Weetabix this morning !
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Doobs
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« Reply #128980 on: July 13, 2017, 02:15:23 PM »

That was grim.  Truly legendary tipping regardless.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
4KSuited
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« Reply #128981 on: July 13, 2017, 02:21:34 PM »

Seems that the occasion got to her. Apparently she she swung & missed twice during warm-up.

She certainly gave us a good sweat for our money, and she'll have learnt lots by the time she gets to Flushing Meadow.
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Doobs
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« Reply #128982 on: July 13, 2017, 02:22:58 PM »

Come on Adz.  Save us.  Invincible Army now 4.7/4.8!
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
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« Reply #128983 on: July 13, 2017, 02:30:41 PM »

Come on Adz.  Save us.  Invincible Army now 4.7/4.8!

Sad  started 4.1/4.2.  Just touched off for 3rd.  Thought we had it for a while.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
BigAdz
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« Reply #128984 on: July 13, 2017, 02:35:55 PM »

Meh. Cant do much more than that.

Always seemed to be pulling a bit too much first couple for my liking.  I blame Marky....King Bok!!

I fear the worst for Fred today.......

This worm will be back!! Cheesy
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