Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Querrey lost in the tennis most disappointingly.

Mens draw totally open for US Open. Everyone injured, out of form or both. Fed's back is a worry and puts him as a very shaky favourite.

I quite like Keys at 20s for the ladies. Still some value there IMO. She is favourite vs Muguruza tonight yet Muguruza is much shorter outright for Flushing Meadows. Keys on 7 match winning streak and wrist seems healed after injury which disrupted her season.

[arbboy]

going to be the worst male GS in tennis since the Safin/Hewitt era this us open.  We have been spoilt for the last ten+ years. 

[TightEnd]

Nadal is knackered too. been chasing sideline to sideline on the base line all year and form has tailed away from what i can see

Zverev at 20-1 each way

beat Fed to win the rogers cop, 5 ATP titles this year

up to world number 7. if we can get him in the other half of the draw to Roger.....?

[TightEnd]

the women's is 13/2 the field 10/1 bar two as well....

wide open (again)

[arbboy]

all mid/wide at romford yet again this afternoon.

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=150231

[arbboy]

all mid/wide at romford yet again this afternoon.

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=150231

Some of the wides which have to lead to win usually are beating faster dogs and coming from off the pace out wide to do it.  Very strong bias for me today there at romford.

[hhyftrftdr]

Ladbrokes shops getting hammered in this Brighton police doc on ITV.

[StuartHopkin]

Anyone got any pointers for the Nottingham card tomorrow?

[tikay]

Ladbrokes shops getting hammered in this Brighton police doc on ITV.

Great piece of tv, that.

[Rod Paradise]

If you hadn't seen the scoreline, this would have been a tough one to predict based on the stats.

A self-appointed corruption catcher is now making insinuations about this & the return leg...

Why UEFA Should Monitor the FC Astana vs. Celtic Game

    Investigative journalist Declan Hill

    http://declanhill.com/uefa-monitor-f...s-celtic-game/
    Ninety percent of match-fixing in football is easy to prevent.One of the keys to a successfully fighting corruption is to recognize ‘choke point games’. These are games – 3rd match in opening round of the World Cup, 6th match in Group Stage of Champions League or any Italian game featuring a team in danger of relegation from April onwards – where one team has a lot to gain, while the other has very little.This week’s home-away games of the ‘play-off round’ of the Champions League is such a choke point. Historically, there have been a number of examples of match-fixing at this stage in the Champions League. The match-fixing Sapina brothers were able to get teams to lose and UEFA looked long and hard at the Latvian team in 2013.The economics of ‘choke point’ fixing are simple.There is no effective financial deterrent for a team in losing the game. In this case, the losing team goes on to play in the Europa League.Therefore the strategy is simple, if you are not a rich team with the resources to compete successfully in the Champions League you show up and play the first match. If it does not go well then somewhere in the match you make the decision to lose big (above the Asian spread on the game). This way the team makes money losing the game and it ends up in a tournament that they have a better chance of winning.To be clear, this is not to suggest that FC Astana of Kazakhstan engaged in such behaviour in their 5 – 0 loss to Glasgow Celtic. However, it is to say that the second leg of the play-off round to be played on August 22nd, is a match that UEFA should focus on with laser-like intensity.The need for such a focus is made worst by the fact that the sponsors of the football team FC Astana, the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Kazakhstan, are the same organization who sponsored the highly-controversial Astana Cycling team of Lance Armstrongʼs comeback fame and multiple doping infractions (see: ‘If We Want to End Doping in Cycling, Astana Must Go’ or ‘A brief history of Astana scandals’:

    https://www.outsideonline.com/ 1927876/if-we-want-end-doping-cycling-astana-must-go – https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/l...peloton-139345). The sporting organizations are officially linked together under the same club name.Again this is not to suggest that Astana football club followed the dubious path of the cycling officials or that the sponsors in anyway encouraged doping but it is to say that there is a sports business atmosphere in Kazakhstan that does not encourage confidence.This is particularly because FIFPro – the football players international union – declared Kazakhstan to be a hotbed of match-fixing. In 2012, FIFPro conducted a survey of their members in twelve eastern European countries about violence, intimidation and match-fixing. 34% of the Kazak players reported that they had been approached to fix a game in their league and 44% said they were aware of match-fixing in the league. This was the highest number in all of Europe and possibly an under-reporting of the problem as FIFPro had this to say about the difficulties of working in Kazakhstan:

    Regarding the collection of information, union representatives found organizing personal meetings with players the most difficult stage. The clubs also intervened and disrupted the process of completing the questionnaires. In Kazakh football, clubs can do nothing without the Federation`s (Football Federation of Kazakhstan – FFK) permission. Problems arose when FFK ignored the unionʼs letters. Clearly, FFK ordered all clubs to disturb the process of the project. As a result, meetings with players had to be organized secretly. Players were really helpful in this regard. There are many problems but no major areas of concern were identified because all (clubs, players, agents) are afraid of FFK. Some of the cases were prepared for the Black Book, but players requested their stories were not published.

    FIFPro Black Book Eastern Europe: The problems professional footballers encounter: research, p. 66.It is little wonder that the players were so frightened. In the same survey, FIFPro also found that almost 28% of the players claimed to have been victims of violence and more than half of those players had been attacked by their own club officials!All in all, then Kazakhstan has a stained reputation in sports integrity. If UEFA wants to ensure that the credibility of Champions League does not suffer it should monitor the upcoming game very, very, very closely.

I was at the game & it looked to me like Astana over exerted themselves playing a pressing game. Half an hour in I said to my mate, this lot will tire, going to back a late goal.

The OG's were not what you could call deliberate - or the defenders are hell of a skilled at it.

[PokerBroker]

There is a horse running today that I think is quite interesting and I was impressed by how it won it's maiden. 

3:45 at Newbury, on paper it looks a hot race there have been some horses highly tried who run in it and I am sure there will be many to take out of the race afterwards. 

The one I like and that was in my tracker is Sarshampala I was surprised when I opened up oddschecker to see it was 20/1.  In a 16 runner race with most books going 1/5 the first 3 the correct play is to back it to win but Paddy and Betfair SB are going 1/5 the first 4. 

I thin this one is worth a couple of quid on the nose.  £10 to win £200 obviously go BOG in event it drifts further. 

[sonour]

There is a horse running today that I think is quite interesting and I was impressed by how it won it's maiden. 

3:45 at Newbury, on paper it looks a hot race there have been some horses highly tried who run in it and I am sure there will be many to take out of the race afterwards. 

The one I like and that was in my tracker is Sarshampala I was surprised when I opened up oddschecker to see it was 20/1.  In a 16 runner race with most books going 1/5 the first 3 the correct play is to back it to win but Paddy and Betfair SB are going 1/5 the first 4. 

I thin this one is worth a couple of quid on the nose.  £10 to win £200 obviously go BOG in event it drifts further. 

Or 30/1 ish on the exchange.

[Doobs]

There is a horse running today that I think is quite interesting and I was impressed by how it won it's maiden. 

3:45 at Newbury, on paper it looks a hot race there have been some horses highly tried who run in it and I am sure there will be many to take out of the race afterwards. 

The one I like and that was in my tracker is Sarshampala I was surprised when I opened up oddschecker to see it was 20/1.  In a 16 runner race with most books going 1/5 the first 3 the correct play is to back it to win but Paddy and Betfair SB are going 1/5 the first 4. 

I thin this one is worth a couple of quid on the nose.  £10 to win £200 obviously go BOG in event it drifts further. 

Or 30/1 ish on the exchange.

But e/w looks really good with 4 places. 16 runners and a bunch of big priced horses though.  The t s and cs look like they are worded very badly (from paddy power website).

CONDITIONS

We are paying 4 PLACES for Each Way bets at 1/5 odds in the 15:45 Newbury, 16:50 Newbury & 17:15 Dundalk on Friday.

Applies to 'Win or Each Way' market only.
Applies to Place part of Each Way bets only. Applies to singles and multiple bets.
Applies to bets placed from 10am on August 17th.
If there are less than 16 starters, we will pay 4 places.
If there are less than 8 starters we will pay 3 places
Paddy Power Horse Racing rules apply
Paddy Power reserves the right in its discretion to exclude and/or limit the availability of the offer to certain customers.

Eg 5 runners is less than 16, so they pay both 4 places and 3 places according to the above?  I assume they mean they need 16 or above to pay 4.  I'd guess we are pretty likely to move one and the T s and cs are wrong. 

[Cavey007]

Total season points are out on everyday at the moment (haven't seen them elsewhere I'm afraid) Had a quick scan through yesterday and Rams o300 points jumps out to me. 224, 280, 324, 348. 299.

Historically that doesn't look too good, but those numbers were under Jeff Fisher. He was horrible for them last year, negative and uninspiring throughout the season, Gurley described them as playing a high school offense)  They have a new coach now, Sean McVay coming over from a high scoring Washington team where he was the offensive coordinator. They've improved their offensive line, and with the addition of Sammy Watkins have a viable target on the outside which should help open things up for Todd Gurley. Jared Goff will be better coming into his second year with a little bit of protection in front of him as well.

Recommend 50 at 9/5 if you've got someone who can get on if Tighty and co. agree with that.

we have 32 teams to choose from and we want to go over the Rams   (granted 300 is only 18 points a game,so only prodding you playfully)

not a huge fan of their schedule they get NFC East and AFC South this year, think there are 4-5 strong defenses in those divisions.

that said its not 10/11 each of two over/under, so nearly 2/1 on the offense beginning to improve

will open it up to views....

That's a fair point, I was looking at them while doing a draft last night so didn't get deep into schedules, just last yr totals and my perception of whether that team will be better or not. But I think 300 was the lowest overs total on there, and with it being a completely new offence I thought they were basing it too much on last year's performance. In fairness I think the niners were o300 too with a Shanahan offence, but they'll face the same defences as the Rams.

The Ravens on the unders was another I was tempted by. U326 but I hate taking unders. Just don't seem them having much offence. I think they'll be getting to the 40 and then letting Tucker kick it from halfway and their defence has the potential to be one of the best so they won't need to score a whole lot either

So the Rams aren't exciting... How about everyones favourite AFC South team? The tenneesee Titans. They've improved on offence, added pass catchers to their 2 v. Good rbs. Have a QB who doesn't give the ball away in the red zone and missed a game with injury last year. Still scored 381 points last year.

This year, if I've read it right 365 are offering over 365 points on them. Also at 9/5. Did they over perform that much last year? I don't see them scoring fewer points this time around compared to last year.

[TightEnd]

381 points last year

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2016.htm

as you say, add Decker, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor to Mariota,Murray/Henry and that very good young offensive line and its difficult to see the total points being lower this year (assuming mariota stays fit)

possible fly in the ointment is texans and jags should be strong on defense thats 4 games but it was 4 games last year too (but not JJ Watt)

divisionally they get NFC West (strong defence x 4) and AFC North (bad weather late on) so quite tough too

but it excites me more than the Rams if its >365 at 9/5