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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332745 times)
bergeroo
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« Reply #133830 on: July 21, 2018, 10:13:48 PM »

I'd like to recommend a bet for the UFC event in Hamburg tomorrow. On the surface it isn't a thrilling card, with not many big names. However, there are a bunch of European fighters with a few British guys in action, some up and coming fighters and a lot of the fights look like they could be exciting and have finishes.

The bet is in what could be the worst fight of the card entertainment-wise. Stefan Struve is a freak 7 heavyweight who is well past his best. He has a bunch of deficiencies in his technique which he has never really fixed and doesn't ever seem to utilise his reach advantage fully. He is a kickboxer but he has also developed a ground game and is awkward but limited. Struve is coming off two losses as is his opponent Marcin Tybura but I'd consider Tybura a higher calibre of fighter and much less shop-worn. Tybura shares the kickboxing background and he adds to it an underrated ground game with a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and solid defence. With a few wins Tybura can still put himself in contention at the top of the division. I think he starts here but it is going to be ugly!

As it is heavyweight fight, the bookies have it slated to finish within the distance. And of course that makes sense - big guys KO each other. I think this fight could be different and I don't expect three full rounds of striking and stand up fighting. Instead I expect a grinding three rounds, lots of grappling, takedowns but with not much action and both fighters struggling to get the finish. So therefore I see the value in going the distance, and as Tybura is the favourite and will be the far more active fighter, I pick him to win via decision.*

It is available at 3/1 in a few places and you can get a little better than that if you use Billy Hill's Bet Boost.

https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/marcin-tybura-v-stefan-struve/method-of-victory

Recommend £20

*Of course it is a heavyweight fight and it could be over at any time with one punch!

The card will be worth a watch and it is on BT Sport beginning some time in mid afternoon.
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cheapwetsuit
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« Reply #133831 on: July 21, 2018, 10:22:14 PM »

One I quite like the look of...

Bahrain-Merida to win the TdF team classification at 12/1 with BetUnfair.

Now that Nibali's out, the team don't have much else to go for besides stage wins. Which means that their riders will be gunning for the breakaways most days next week.

At the moment Movistar are leading the team standings with Bahrain-Merida at 10:16, Sky at 19:40 and LottoNL-Jumbo at 29:18. Movistar have nothing to gain by being in the breakaways, and will be keeping men back to try move Landa and Quintana up in the GC. Sky have even less reason to have men up ahead. Looking at the stages to come, they all seem to suit breakaways, except for the short, punchy Stage 17 which shouldn't produce huge time gaps.

Bahrain-Merida are half decent at TT's as well, so shouldn't lose much time to Movistar on Stage 20 either.

And there's the fact that after what happened to Nibali, I don't think that any of the other teams would begrudge Bahrain-Merida winning the team classification.

Recommend £40 Bahrain-Merida to win Team Classification at 12/1.
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Chompy
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« Reply #133832 on: July 21, 2018, 11:02:55 PM »

Scuy request-a-bet

Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City & Tottenham each to score 75+ PL goals - 20/1

City no offers, Liverpool maybe 1-5, Arsenal and Tottenham both managed 74 last season. Maybe 6-4 each being generous. 20-1 seems somewhat large.
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #133833 on: July 21, 2018, 11:18:09 PM »

Scuy request-a-bet

Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City & Tottenham each to score 75+ PL goals - 20/1

City no offers, Liverpool maybe 1-5, Arsenal and Tottenham both managed 74 last season. Maybe 6-4 each being generous. 20-1 seems somewhat large.

I got some of that on the 17th when the price was 40/1. Few people on Blue Moon had picked up on it and I thought it looked a more than decent punt. By that evening it had been halved.

Still think 20s is generous, its more or less a double on the London clubs to net enough.

Think there was a similar bet but either Arsenal or Spurs swapped for united. Suffice to say the odds were longer for that Smiley
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #133834 on: July 21, 2018, 11:22:18 PM »

Everton bid 50m for Richarlison.

Incredible.




If this transfer goes through, let's get the Watford board involved in the Brexit negotiations please

I am swimming alone with this one, think it is a good deal for both parties

Worth remembering he was physically shot since xmas, if the deal had been done then would have been more after him

I think it's actually £35M+addons which might include the toffees winning everything.

He did look a very good player during the first few months of last season, and was the star of the under-20's world cup previously, so £35M sounds okay.

The U20 World Cup star I think you might be thinking of Peneranda?  He’s with us this season but is coming off the back of a 2 year drinking session by all accounts.

Reluctant to link this heinous rag but I knew I'd read it somewhere:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-5975375/Everton-close-signing-Richarlison-Watford-deal-worth-50m.html

Think Daily Mail have messed this up as Brazil did not qualify for the last one!   Ricky played in the qualification round and was best player in that in a poor Brazil team.
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Chompy
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« Reply #133835 on: July 22, 2018, 12:34:12 AM »

Scuy request-a-bet

Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City & Tottenham each to score 75+ PL goals - 20/1

City no offers, Liverpool maybe 1-5, Arsenal and Tottenham both managed 74 last season. Maybe 6-4 each being generous. 20-1 seems somewhat large.

I got some of that on the 17th when the price was 40/1. Few people on Blue Moon had picked up on it and I thought it looked a more than decent punt. By that evening it had been halved.

Still think 20s is generous, its more or less a double on the London clubs to net enough.

Think there was a similar bet but either Arsenal or Spurs swapped for united. Suffice to say the odds were longer for that Smiley

Yikes! 40-1! They really need to get someone with half a clue to do their RAB stuff. Would love to know how they got to 40-1 about that, given it should be single figures.
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tikay
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« Reply #133836 on: July 22, 2018, 09:58:14 AM »


Did "The Dazzler" stick a bet on for Fred a few weeks ago? I seem to recall something, but I don't recall if it won or lost, or if I paid. I'll check that, too.

I sorted this today, sorry for the delay.

It's rare for me to want Newcastle to win, but I guess I'll have to be a Mag for the day. 



 Click to see full-size image.
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #133837 on: July 22, 2018, 10:17:38 AM »

Reckon he enjoys the odd Greggs?
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #133838 on: July 22, 2018, 10:27:29 AM »

Another shy RAB I like and have had a small dabble on is Ronaldo and Mbappe to score 30+ goals in their respective leagues at 80/1.

Can see Ronny having a field day in Italy, some very poor teams in that league.

Same bet is 9/1 on billyhill  Cheesy
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« Reply #133839 on: July 22, 2018, 11:01:58 AM »

Despite Hill's prices being scanadlous, they've managed a couple of ricks.

Liverpool o70.5pts and Wolves o25.5 @ 1-2. Liverpool spread is somewhere around 80, Wolves around 40. The wolves part is no offers, Liverpool o70.5pts is way shorter than 1-2.

Man City and Liverpool to have o599.5 corners and o169.5 goals combined 80-1. The goals part of the bet is around a flip, maybe shorter. They combined for 514 corners last season, so that's the bet. Around 50-1 that they can find another 90-odd between them. If the pair wind up scrapping it out at the top, then every chance.
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Marky147
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« Reply #133840 on: July 22, 2018, 12:44:36 PM »

Another shy RAB I like and have had a small dabble on is Ronaldo and Mbappe to score 30+ goals in their respective leagues at 80/1.

Can see Ronny having a field day in Italy, some very poor teams in that league.

Same bet is 9/1 on billyhill  Cheesy


Love the season long sweats. Cheers!

See if £20 can pay for my flight & hotel next summer Smiley
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #133841 on: July 22, 2018, 01:12:22 PM »

Another shy RAB I like and have had a small dabble on is Ronaldo and Mbappe to score 30+ goals in their respective leagues at 80/1.

Can see Ronny having a field day in Italy, some very poor teams in that league.

Same bet is 9/1 on billyhill  Cheesy


Love the season long sweats. Cheers!

See if £20 can pay for my flight & hotel next summer Smiley

Stick a fiver on Ronaldo, Mbappe, Lukaku and Griezmann all to be top scorers in their respective leagues at 750/1 and you can fly in business Wink
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Marky147
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« Reply #133842 on: July 22, 2018, 01:13:16 PM »

Another shy RAB I like and have had a small dabble on is Ronaldo and Mbappe to score 30+ goals in their respective leagues at 80/1.

Can see Ronny having a field day in Italy, some very poor teams in that league.

Same bet is 9/1 on billyhill  Cheesy


Love the season long sweats. Cheers!

See if £20 can pay for my flight & hotel next summer Smiley

Stick a fiver on Ronaldo, Mbappe, Lukaku and Griezmann all to be top scorers in their respective leagues at 750/1 and you can fly in business Wink

I'll save my fiver, lol.

More chance of me being top scorer than Lukaku!
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #133843 on: July 22, 2018, 01:18:25 PM »

Another shy RAB I like and have had a small dabble on is Ronaldo and Mbappe to score 30+ goals in their respective leagues at 80/1.

Can see Ronny having a field day in Italy, some very poor teams in that league.

Same bet is 9/1 on billyhill  Cheesy


Love the season long sweats. Cheers!

See if £20 can pay for my flight & hotel next summer Smiley

Stick a fiver on Ronaldo, Mbappe, Lukaku and Griezmann all to be top scorers in their respective leagues at 750/1 and you can fly in business Wink

I'll save my fiver, lol.

More chance of me being top scorer than Lukaku!

But his first touch makes it feasible he can score from his own half regularly.
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PokerBroker
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« Reply #133844 on: July 22, 2018, 05:17:06 PM »

I'd add in Odsonne Édouard top scorer in Scotland. 

On basis that he'll score goals and I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Moussa Dembele be sold in January. 
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