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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333316 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #135705 on: April 10, 2019, 11:44:48 AM »

Snooker

The 2018-19 season concludes with the World Championship once more at the Crucible in Sheffield. Mark Williams is the defending champion and automatically installed as the number one seed. As MJW is only 7th on the provisional one year rankings, this is the beginning of what is a lopsided draw.

The draw shape puts a lot of the form players, and the first two and three of the first four and four of the top six in the outright betting, in the bottom half. This presents an opportunity as bookmakers offer half the odds first two, so picking a player to win the “weaker” half would pay dividends

Here is the seeding draw:

Mark Williams (1) v Qualifier
Dave Gilbert (16) v Qualifier
Barry Hawkins (9) v Qualifier
Kyren Wilson (Cool v Qualifier
——————————————————
John Higgins (5) v Qualifier
Stuart Bingham (12) v Qualifier
Shaun Murphy (13) v Qualifier
Neil Robertson (4) v Qualifier
——————————————————
Mark Selby (3) v Qualifier
Luca Brecel (14) v Qualifier
Jack Lisowski (11) v Qualifier
Mark Allen (6) v Qualifier
——————————————————–
Judd Trump (7) v Qualifier
Ding Junhui (10) v Qualifier
Stephen Maguire (15) v Qualifier
Ronnie O’Sullivan (2) v Qualifier

The bottom quarter in particular looks very tough, and there are several out of form players in the top half.

The shape of the betting market is (best odds quoted)

O’Sullivan 5/2
Trump 5/1
Robertson 6/1
Selby 10/1
Wilson 18/1
Allen 20/1

https://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/winner

With O’Sullivan and Trump on the same quarter and in Selby’s half these are three of the first four in the outright betting. Robertson, with six ranking finals and three wins this season, won in China to coincidentally rise to a seeding that put him in the top half from which he is favourite to progress to reach the final. He is at the top of the one year ranking list but at 6-1 each way (effectively 3/1 to win his half) the price has come in a long way, he was 20/1 a month ago.

In that top half with Wilson’s form dipping after his cue problems in Germany and Murphy a shadow of the player he was the top half looks wide open for someone like Hawkins (six last eights in a row at the Crucible including four semis and a final) or Bingham (back to form this season with two ranking event wins, a final and a semi final) at 25/1 each way to give great runs for their current prices.

Bingham would have to beat Higgins and probably Robertson to make it to the later stages, but for Hawkins i think the top quarter is very winnable. From there you are one match away from an e/w return and we know he grinds the long matches very well.

Hawkins hasn't had a great season, hence the pricing opportunity here

£25 e/w Hawkins to win at 25-1 each way (1/2 1,2) Betfred

« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 12:09:20 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #135706 on: April 10, 2019, 12:03:44 PM »



oioi, Tighty is back.

Cracking read Rich, thank you. 
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« Reply #135707 on: April 10, 2019, 12:04:25 PM »


£25 e/w Hawkins to win at 25-1 each way (1/2 1,2) Betfred

BET PLACED
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« Reply #135708 on: April 10, 2019, 01:30:18 PM »

A Masters portfolio?

sub markets?

any interesting bookmaker offers around this year?
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tikay
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« Reply #135709 on: April 10, 2019, 01:38:45 PM »

A Masters portfolio?

sub markets?

any interesting bookmaker offers around this year?

Would love one, though I only have 2 working accounts now, Betfred & Wm Hill.
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« Reply #135710 on: April 10, 2019, 02:03:51 PM »

Brutal bottom half of the snooker.  Maguire and Allen aren't even mentioned.   Hawk looks a no brainer to me at that price.   Just loves the grind of the place. 
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« Reply #135711 on: April 10, 2019, 02:30:32 PM »

A Masters portfolio?

sub markets?

any interesting bookmaker offers around this year?

Would love one, though I only have 2 working accounts now, Betfred & Wm Hill.

Isn't that odd, they were amongst the first to close me down.
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« Reply #135712 on: April 10, 2019, 03:13:21 PM »

There he is!

I'm on Robertson from a few months back, but can't not get involved after that write-up.

Great post, and good to have you back, Rich.

I've got a few accounts, so if you want on, and I can get on. Not a problem.
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« Reply #135713 on: April 10, 2019, 03:30:29 PM »


Although unimaginative, soft conditions have got to favour Rory surely?

You can get 8-1 6 places 1/4 odds with Baldfred.  He's about 8-1 on betfair so there is eachway value.  £25ew for fred?
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« Reply #135714 on: April 10, 2019, 03:47:58 PM »

I see there are some ten places 1/5 around with Coral, betfairsportsbook/paddy and sky albeit giving up some on the price.

anyway

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Outright - The Masters
Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6   Rory McIlroy   8/1   
Total stake   50.00
Estimated return   300.00


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« Reply #135715 on: April 10, 2019, 04:08:04 PM »

Not to put a downer on anything suggested but it's supposed to be dry until Sunday on a hilly fairly fast-draining course with sub-air controlled greens.

Is it really going to play much softer than usual?

I like Vijay Singh to be top senior @9/4+ - he was 3.35 on betty last time I looked.
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« Reply #135716 on: April 10, 2019, 04:25:14 PM »

I see there are some ten places 1/5 around with Coral, betfairsportsbook/paddy and sky albeit giving up some on the price.



yeah the 13/2 ten places would be slightly better if you assume rory is as likely to be first as tenth which isn't really the case imo.  If Rory makes the cut you get a £10 free bet I think, which is nice.
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« Reply #135717 on: April 10, 2019, 05:26:21 PM »

The NFL draft is coming up in a couple of weeks. It's jolly good fun and offers all sorts of betting markets.

There is a tidal wave of information about which team is going to pick which player, which position they prioritise over another, who will trade down, who wants to move up, whose fitness is a concern and for every inside scoop, there's a denial. This isn't a "where there's smoke there's fire" situation; sometimes it is just smoke.

One of the interesting markets is where Dwayne Haskins will end up. Haskins is not the most highly rated QB in the draft this year, but he is an intelligent, tall, sharp-eyed prospect, who could develop into a decent franchise guy. In the last couple of days, there's been talk that teams are cool on him and that he is expected to be drafted much later than the press has been reporting to us for the last few months. Why would teams have let this misapprehension continue for so long? It's perfectly possible that it's actually this latest rumour that is the lie and he's actually sought after.

The candidate teams:

1. New York Giants - pick 6 in the draft and have an ageing QB in Eli Manning who showed significant signs of decline last season. GM loves him, though, and that's the only person realistically stopping this from being a slam dunk. He just happens too be the one calling the shots.

2. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill has gone. Ryan Fitzpatrick has come in and he is basically a fun placeholder. The team has spoken openly - or as openly as it can - about looking at the 2020 draft for a QB. There will be a couple of guys who look better than this year's crop available. Finish with a poor record this year and get one of those seems to be the plan. They could, of course, be bluffing.

3. Oakland Raiders - The Raiders have been rumoured to be looking beyond current QB Derek Carr. The trouble is he can't be binned off this year very easily because of his contract. It's questionable at best whether either Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins is an upgrade on Carr. Frankly, I can't have either above Carr. The Raiders have 3 first round picks and pick 35, so they have lots of ammunition if they want to try to get number 1 overall. If they love Haskins, they could take him at 4, but I can't really see that happening, when they can fill other needs more easily.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A sort of combination of New York and Oakland: an ageing QB whose mediocrity might be too high a bar to better this year. They could gamble for their new head coach, but that's not really how they've run their franchise in Cincy. They could wait for him to fall down to them, though, at 11. This team could easily finish 4th in the AFC North and has a lot of holes (apologies, Bengals fans in this thread), so taking a "need" and making do might well make more sense.

5. Washington Redskins - The Redskins have three QBs on their books: Alex Smith is recovering from a hideous leg break and might never play again; Colt McCoy is a back-up and nothing more; Case Keenum is no one's idea of a franchise QB but was the best available when they brought him in a few months ago.

Haskins seems unlikely to be a week one starter, so time behind an experienced QB makes sense. That's basically all of the above teams. The complicating factor is what's happening at number one. Kyler Murray seems very likely to be Arizona's choice, but the Cardinals traded up last year to 10 to take Josh Rosen, so they already have a rookie contract QB. This is clearly ridiculous, as he's not done much wrong in a team devoid of offense or coaching. Nevertheless, this is the NFL and stupid things happen.

Rosen will have to go somewhere, and the above teams, along with the Patriots, are all possible destinations for him.

At the prices, I think Washington are the ones to watch for Haskins. He'd be a good fit in their offence - originally designed for Alex Smith's safety-first approach - and would allow them to build around him for a few years, while they recover from being a poor outfit.

 Click to see full-size image.


Recommendation: Team to draft Dwayne Haskins: Washington Redskins

I've put £30 @ 6/1 with Betstars on for Fred, if he wants it.


 
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« Reply #135718 on: April 10, 2019, 05:35:01 PM »




All the GOATs out today!

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« Reply #135719 on: April 10, 2019, 05:35:26 PM »


^^^^^

Thanks Mr Tal, & yes please. I'll send the £30 across in the morning.


Meanwhile, I'm still recovering from this shock, & may well be devastated once I know who Mr Bussell is.


 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-47881993
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