The NFL draft is coming up in a couple of weeks. It's jolly good fun and offers all sorts of betting markets.
There is a tidal wave of information about which team is going to pick which player, which position they prioritise over another, who will trade down, who wants to move up, whose fitness is a concern and for every inside scoop, there's a denial. This isn't a "where there's smoke there's fire" situation; sometimes it is just smoke.
One of the interesting markets is where Dwayne Haskins will end up. Haskins is not the most highly rated QB in the draft this year, but he is an intelligent, tall, sharp-eyed prospect, who could develop into a decent franchise guy. In the last couple of days, there's been talk that teams are cool on him and that he is expected to be drafted much later than the press has been reporting to us for the last few months. Why would teams have let this misapprehension continue for so long? It's perfectly possible that it's actually this latest rumour that is the lie and he's actually sought after.
The candidate teams:
1. New York Giants - pick 6 in the draft and have an ageing QB in Eli Manning who showed significant signs of decline last season. GM loves him, though, and that's the only person realistically stopping this from being a slam dunk. He just happens too be the one calling the shots.
2. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill has gone. Ryan Fitzpatrick has come in and he is basically a fun placeholder. The team has spoken openly - or as openly as it can - about looking at the 2020 draft for a QB. There will be a couple of guys who look better than this year's crop available. Finish with a poor record this year and get one of those seems to be the plan. They could, of course, be bluffing.
3. Oakland Raiders - The Raiders have been rumoured to be looking beyond current QB Derek Carr. The trouble is he can't be binned off this year very easily because of his contract. It's questionable at best whether either Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins is an upgrade on Carr. Frankly, I can't have either above Carr. The Raiders have 3 first round picks and pick 35, so they have lots of ammunition if they want to try to get number 1 overall. If they love Haskins, they could take him at 4, but I can't really see that happening, when they can fill other needs more easily.
4. Cincinnati Bengals - A sort of combination of New York and Oakland: an ageing QB whose mediocrity might be too high a bar to better this year. They could gamble for their new head coach, but that's not really how they've run their franchise in Cincy. They could wait for him to fall down to them, though, at 11. This team could easily finish 4th in the AFC North and has a lot of holes (apologies, Bengals fans in this thread), so taking a "need" and making do might well make more sense.
5. Washington Redskins - The Redskins have three QBs on their books: Alex Smith is recovering from a hideous leg break and might never play again; Colt McCoy is a back-up and nothing more; Case Keenum is no one's idea of a franchise QB but was the best available when they brought him in a few months ago.
Haskins seems unlikely to be a week one starter, so time behind an experienced QB makes sense. That's basically all of the above teams. The complicating factor is what's happening at number one. Kyler Murray seems very likely to be Arizona's choice, but the Cardinals traded up last year to 10 to take Josh Rosen, so they already have a rookie contract QB. This is clearly ridiculous, as he's not done much wrong in a team devoid of offense or coaching. Nevertheless, this is the NFL and stupid things happen.
Rosen will have to go somewhere, and the above teams, along with the Patriots, are all possible destinations for him.
At the prices, I think Washington are the ones to watch for Haskins. He'd be a good fit in their offence - originally designed for Alex Smith's safety-first approach - and would allow them to build around him for a few years, while they recover from being a poor outfit.
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Recommendation: Team to draft Dwayne Haskins: Washington RedskinsI've put £30 @ 6/1 with Betstars on for Fred, if he wants it.