Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

The busiest this place has been for almost a year, thanks to Love Island.

Tikay must be squirming....

[StuartHopkin]

Tommy and molly were 4/5 before last nights ep which was nuts when you knew what was going to happen

Everyone knew how it was going to play out, but I didn't realise I was going to shed a tear

I was expecting Amy to get blown out but she didn't so it didn't exactly work out as planned.   

Nooor, Curtis realised he had been pied and was on a full on recovery mission.
Not sure why though, can't stand Amy, he should have picked one of the random spare ladies.

[arbboy]

The busiest this place has been for almost a year, thanks to Love Island.

Tikay must be squirming....

Anything to add Adz?  You must be a fan?

[BigAdz]

The busiest this place has been for almost a year, thanks to Love Island.

Tikay must be squirming....

Anything to add Adz?  You must be a fan?

Would love to Arb, but honestly never watched it. Watch enough drivel as it is!!

Won't stop me having a bet though if the rec is strong enough!

[youthnkzR]

Love Island

Just checked oddschecker and puked when I saw Molly/Tommy winning couple @ 2/7... Immediately looked to oppose. To me, this looks like a massive market overreaction to the soppy re-coupling scene. I'm firmly of the opinion Molly is completely fake and an attention seeker and up until the last few days (where shes been quiet/ has had relatively little air time due to not being bothered about the others in Casa Amor) shes come across very badly. I see this ridic short price holding for a couple of days due to all the shit going off around them but after this has settled expect a reversion back to the mean for her, especially now everybody is in one place.

Wheres the value?

Best place to start is eliminating people who just cant win.

Girls:
- Amy (needy/bitchy/comes across badly)
- Lucie* (confirmed fake)
- Amber (too much of a bitch)
- Jourdan (incredibly smug/seems genuinely happy to have caused havoc)
- Anna (massive twat)

Boys:
- George (too quiet after a week)
- Danny (originally liked him and thought he was a potential winner. Actions have done too much damage to endear him to public)
- Ovie (coupled with Anna + comes across badly with her... acts like a nodding dog)

This leaves us with 3 couples to oppose Tommy/Molly with:

Anton + Belle @ 8/1
Michael + Joanna @ 14/1
Maura + Marvin @ 20/1

Belle / Marvin have had barely any airtime yet (I suspect Marvin is too quiet to win). Joanna's time has been limited but she come across well (also think she suits Michael + may bring out the best in him), but is still an unknown quantity at this point. For these reasons I think its best to find value in the 'top boy' + 'top girl' markets (plus there are less variables and the price only gets shaved slightly). We should be looking to choose a character who is already established as its extremely unlikely the winning couple is made up of two latecomers.

Michael (top boy) @ 12/1 with William Hill - I like this a lot. The re-coupling episode + tonights ep has made him come across badly leading to a significant drift (he was touching EVS pre Casa Amor). Another overreaction IMO. Hes intelligent and has a good personality. This new partner may also bring out the best in him as she seems down to earth + more mature. VERY happy to take 12/s here.

Anton (top boy) @ 5/1 everywhere - Terrible luck so far, hopefully the new girl is a good egg and can turn this around for him. Worth mentioning that the Anton/Lucie friendship couple were in the top 3 most popular via public vote, beating established couples. This was the same week Lucie was crying her eyes out over Joe threatening to walk so I dare say that the vote was for Anton rather than the couple. Very confident, comes across extremely well and has a good head on him. Public are also deff routing for him to find someone VERY happy to take here.

Maura (top girl) @ 20/1 with Unibet - May not be everyones cup of tea but I think people are warming to her in general. Rough around the edges and came in all guns blazing however a sensitive side has since been exposed. Fiesty, funny and sensitive. New partner will make / break this. I'm thinking since hes quiet, she will lead a lot of the discussions, get lots of air time and be involved in a lot of drama. I hope it goes well for her. Wouldn't put you off at 20s. Don't see this price lasting long. She's either going to drop a clanger and be out of the running or get pretty short pretty quickly IMO.

Note: can't believe I've just spent 10 mins typing a love island post  

[arbboy]

I couldn't have written a better 'detailed' summary than that myself.  I certainly couldn't have typed that in ten minutes either.   If ii was going to have 3 bets they would be the three you suggested.   I pretty much agree on everything you have stated on people who can't win as well. 

Anton and Maura somehow get together and have an celtic couple up and win.   The early days run bad endears them to the public.   

[Juperjiper]

Maura has certainly turned it around.
She was hated wasn’t she? Now people like her ‘saying it how it is’

[arbboy]

Maura has certainly turned it around.
She was hated wasn’t she? Now people like her ‘saying it how it is’

She hasn'tt changed at all from the start.  Says it how it is.  No bullshit.  Straight to the point.  Just looked a bit mouthy compared to the more immature snowflakey types in with her at the start who are/were playing the game and staying corporate.

[TightEnd]

thinking out loud

Leicester have signed Ayoze Perez. 12 goals last season. Newcastle's next highest scorer was a centre back. Was on a long term contract, so no compulsion to sell that i could tell

Benitez has gone

Ashley hasn't sold, and if he doesn't do so by end of August they can't strengthen to January

New manager? arteta is the favourite https://www.oddschecker.com/football/manager-specials/newcastle-utd/next-permanent-manager

Bottom end of the Premier league looks stronger this year i think. Norwich are a decent side, Villa will spend. Not too many Huddersfields and Cardiff's around. Question marks about Palace post Zaha, Brighton etc for sure, plus Sheff U should struggle

Newcastle 7/2 to go down? yes? too short? anything could happen?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

[Doobs]

thinking out loud

Leicester have signed Ayoze Perez. 12 goals last season. Newcastle's next highest scorer was a centre back. Was on a long term contract, so no compulsion to sell that i could tell

Benitez has gone

Ashley hasn't sold, and if he doesn't do so by end of August they can't strengthen to January

New manager? arteta is the favourite https://www.oddschecker.com/football/manager-specials/newcastle-utd/next-permanent-manager

Bottom end of the Premier league looks stronger this year i think. Norwich are a decent side, Villa will spend. Not too many Huddersfields and Cardiff's around. Question marks about Palace post Zaha, Brighton etc for sure, plus Sheff U should struggle

Newcastle 7/2 to go down? yes? too short? anything could happen?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Peter27 put them up at 5/1 last week, but I don't know if that was a real price or just an oddschecker glitch (oddschecker had others at about 7/2, and I couldn't see betvictor from the States).  I can't be sure now, but weren't Newcastle bad on the stats and Bernitez ran good too?

Bergeroo put up player C at 3/1 in the tennis for highest in end year ATP rankings with BFSB.   I don't know if still available, but player A (1/6) is out at Wimbledon, and player C is looking good (2-0 up in sets and has been well on top, but likely a tiebreak in this one - see BBC2 for player C).

[TightEnd]

In each of the last two seasons i saw them (away games for Newcastle) they set up 4-5-1, very tough to break down,extremely well coached to do that and tried to transition quickly and each time they nicked a goal and they won

Depends what a new manager is going to try to do. Think they'd be more vulnerable with a more expansive approach away from home.

Who is scoring goals for them this season? Almiron is it, a new signing? Paraguayan first season in the PL.

[Doobs]

thinking out loud

Leicester have signed Ayoze Perez. 12 goals last season. Newcastle's next highest scorer was a centre back. Was on a long term contract, so no compulsion to sell that i could tell

Benitez has gone

Ashley hasn't sold, and if he doesn't do so by end of August they can't strengthen to January

New manager? arteta is the favourite https://www.oddschecker.com/football/manager-specials/newcastle-utd/next-permanent-manager

Bottom end of the Premier league looks stronger this year i think. Norwich are a decent side, Villa will spend. Not too many Huddersfields and Cardiff's around. Question marks about Palace post Zaha, Brighton etc for sure, plus Sheff U should struggle

Newcastle 7/2 to go down? yes? too short? anything could happen?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Peter27 put them up at 5/1 last week, but I don't know if that was a real price or just an oddschecker glitch (oddschecker had others at about 7/2, and I couldn't see betvictor from the States).  I can't be sure now, but weren't Newcastle bad on the stats and Bernitez ran good too?

Bergeroo put up player C at 3/1 in the tennis for highest in end year ATP rankings with BFSB.   I don't know if still available, but player A (1/6) is out at Wimbledon, and player C is looking good (2-0 up in sets and has been well on top, but likely a tiebreak in this one - see BBC2 for player C).

Just checked BFSB, and I can't see it on mobile.   Player C wins and is now well ahead of A in the ATP race this year.  If anyone sees the market come back...

[bergeroo]

thinking out loud

Leicester have signed Ayoze Perez. 12 goals last season. Newcastle's next highest scorer was a centre back. Was on a long term contract, so no compulsion to sell that i could tell

Benitez has gone

Ashley hasn't sold, and if he doesn't do so by end of August they can't strengthen to January

New manager? arteta is the favourite https://www.oddschecker.com/football/manager-specials/newcastle-utd/next-permanent-manager

Bottom end of the Premier league looks stronger this year i think. Norwich are a decent side, Villa will spend. Not too many Huddersfields and Cardiff's around. Question marks about Palace post Zaha, Brighton etc for sure, plus Sheff U should struggle

Newcastle 7/2 to go down? yes? too short? anything could happen?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Peter27 put them up at 5/1 last week, but I don't know if that was a real price or just an oddschecker glitch (oddschecker had others at about 7/2, and I couldn't see betvictor from the States).  I can't be sure now, but weren't Newcastle bad on the stats and Bernitez ran good too?

Bergeroo put up player C at 3/1 in the tennis for highest in end year ATP rankings with BFSB.   I don't know if still available, but player A (1/6) is out at Wimbledon, and player C is looking good (2-0 up in sets and has been well on top, but likely a tiebreak in this one - see BBC2 for player C).

Just checked BFSB, and I can't see it on mobile.   Player C wins and is now well ahead of A in the ATP race this year.  If anyone sees the market come back...

I think that market is long gone or the prices drastically different if it comes back. Go go Player C!

[youthnkzR]

I couldn't have written a better 'detailed' summary than that myself.  I certainly couldn't have typed that in ten minutes either.   If ii was going to have 3 bets they would be the three you suggested.   I pretty much agree on everything you have stated on people who can't win as well.  

Anton and Maura somehow get together and have an celtic couple up and win.   The early days run bad endears them to the public.  

Maybe 15 mins then  

Twist I can see coming in the future is Elma getting thrown back in the villa. Anton x Elma couple would romp home imo. She was extremely unfortunate to be eliminated last time but had to go ahead of Anton.

Maura x Jordan couple could potentially work well. Feels like they're well suited. Would have liked to have an interest in Jordan making it deep in the competition as he seems pretty well rounded, but seeing as his only love interest has been Anna I can't see him getting anywhere close unless things change drastically.

On a side note I think theres a lot of value to be found in the 'next elimination' markets. Anna for next female elimination @ 7/1 looks massive. Not a cert by any means as we don't know how people are going to be eliminated but I'd go as far as to say if there was a public vote within the next few days shes verging on being a lock to get the boot seeing as Amy has the sympathy vote atm and Amber still has a big part to play.

Also, Anna getting the boot would completely expose Amber/Amy, which would make for great TV... See how they (especially Amber) handle things on their own without the foghorn backing them up.... I don't really think being single makes you particularly vulnerable at the moment, especially with the Villa / Casa Amor merging. Would make much more sense to boot a couple (Anna/Ovie) over the singles as having single folk in at this stage creates havoc (which is great TV). IMO there are so many arguments for producers pushing for Anna to get the boot. Her race seems ran.

[arbboy]

If you were going to oppose the favs (tommy top boy/Molly top girl) it has to be molly really.  She is 'all in' on Tommy effectively.  Tommy has the 'run it twice' option of the surfer chick should Molly and him not work out.   Of the top favs i would much rather oppose Molly and think Molly should be a bigger price than Tommy for the top sex markets for this reason.  Don't think this has been factored in either.