Independence Referendum

[Kmac84]

I think the rest of us should have an option to vote Scotland out, seems fair 

Will be great news for the Tories if Scotland go, labour won't have a look in for a generation at least.

I'd give you the vote if you promised to vote us out.  But you do know that in only 2 elections since 1945 have the Scottish votes actually mattered.

[RED-DOG]

How come there is no 'NO, because it would be better for the Scots' option?

I'm not saying that is the case, I'm just saying that when a person with a bias sets the questions the poll is usually flawed.

[nirvana]

Anyone with a good insight in Scotland know the likely outcome of this ?

I can't say it matters to me but from a typical human perspective always think vast tracts of people will get cold feet at the last minute and vote to stay with the status quo. I mean, if you vote to divorce, after you've all sung Flower of Scotland a couple of times..what then ?

[Kmac84]

How come there is no 'NO, because it would be better for the Scots' option?

I'm not saying that is the case, I'm just saying that when a person with a bias sets the questions the poll is usually flawed.

The same way the question isn't phased should there be a yes vote bcecause it would be better for the Scots.  

The option is "Should Scotland be an independent country"

It is then upto both sides to argue that.  I have already nailed my colours to the mast I think Scotland should be independent I have always thought that.  But the NO campaign are playing on fears and the campaign is based on mis-truths.  IMO, its part of the issue with politics on these islands and by that I really mean Westminister.  Its always very negative, and the blam game is always played nobody takes responsibility for their actions.  When the Tories were in power through the 80's and early 90's they blamed the Labour Government of the 70''s when Tony Bair swept to power in 1997 his party crippled the country but in doing so blamed the Tory Government of the 80's and 90's and then when Cameron & Co followed guess what . . . . . .

I was a Labour voter, I come from a family who have always votes Labour but looking at what they have done both at Westmnister level and at Holyrood I won't ever vote for them again whilst they are like a diet version of the tories.  I have no faith that even if and its a big if in my book manage to win an election in 2015 that the material lives of people will change.  

The decisions on Scotland should be taken by the people who live and work here, the same waythe people of England should run their own affairs and so too the people or Ireland and Wales.  We can still be neighbours and co-operate on shared issues.  

[Woodsey]

I think the rest of us should have an option to vote Scotland out, seems fair 

Will be great news for the Tories if Scotland go, labour won't have a look in for a generation at least.

I'd give you the vote if you promised to vote us out.  But you do know that in only 2 elections since 1945 have the Scottish votes actually mattered.

I promise mate, now where's that vote 

[celtic]

Anyone with a good insight in Scotland know the likely outcome of this ?

I can't say it matters to me but from a typical human perspective always think vast tracts of people will get cold feet at the last minute and vote to stay with the status quo. I mean, if you vote to divorce, after you've all sung Flower of Scotland a couple of times..what then ?

It's never gonna happen, unless there is a massive swing of opinion.

[Woodsey]

Anyone with a good insight in Scotland know the likely outcome of this ?

I can't say it matters to me but from a typical human perspective always think vast tracts of people will get cold feet at the last minute and vote to stay with the status quo. I mean, if you vote to divorce, after you've all sung Flower of Scotland a couple of times..what then ?

i think you are right mate, some are getting swept away with the nationalistic stuff, but when push comes to shove they know deep down what's really best for them.

[Kmac84]

Anyone with a good insight in Scotland know the likely outcome of this ?

I can't say it matters to me but from a typical human perspective always think vast tracts of people will get cold feet at the last minute and vote to stay with the status quo. I mean, if you vote to divorce, after you've all sung Flower of Scotland a couple of times..what then ?

It's closer than what many first though.  I have been involved in a lot of campaign work on the ground and I think we will vote yes.  I hope so.  

It's not about singing Flower of Scotland but then you know that.

What happens is we set about electing a government, new lines with be drawn no doubt new parties, alliances and groupings will be set.  But when talking about Ireland Connolly said "If you remove the English army tomorrow and hoist the green flag over Dublin Castle, unless you set about the organization of the Socialist Republic your efforts would be in vain. England would still rule you. She would rule you through her capitalists, through her landlords, through her financiers, through the whole array of commercial and individualist institutions she has planted in this country and watered with the tears of our mothers and the blood of our martyrs."

First thing is we get a written constitution, we then design a political system that suits the needs and wants of the Scottish people and we chose a govenment from the many different options that we will have.  Independence won't make everything rosie, but at least it gives us a chance to determine our own future.  

Also its not all political, its a class issue.  Part of the the problem with the pro-independence debate, it is often down to 'hopes' and 'wishes' rather than hard policies. While Scotland may have different voting patterns to that of England, its capitalist class is not known to behave any more democratically than that of other nations. The level of debate is so low that hope takes the place of substance. More heartening is that there are some on the left who recognise this weakness and have tried to impact upon the debate with a dose of reality. The STUC's Stephen Boyd, Prof Mike Danson and Robin McAlpine of the Jimmy Reid Foundation addressed a Scottish Parliamentary committee last week and tried to put forward a case for different economic approaches post-independence.

[Kmac84]

I think the rest of us should have an option to vote Scotland out, seems fair 

Will be great news for the Tories if Scotland go, labour won't have a look in for a generation at least.

I'd give you the vote if you promised to vote us out.  But you do know that in only 2 elections since 1945 have the Scottish votes actually mattered.

I promise mate, now where's that vote 

All you need to do is move up here and register to vote.  :-) You can even rent my shed out!

[TightEnd]

this is the most recent market expectation on betfair

about a 23% shot, but rising in expectation

 

[Kmac84]

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/scotland/

[mulhuzz]

Scotland won't vote yes en masse.

The undecided always vote for the status quo (a cognitive bias).

In general independence would be terrible for Scotland as you don't have real solutions to any of the problems that would be faced:

* eu membership not guaranteed but crucial to economy
* don't even have a currency, a currency union between uk and an independent Scotland has close to no upside for uk.
* regulation of big business: in an independent Scotland you'll see large companies like RBS leave Edinburgh.
* division of national debt and assets: Scotland seem to want all the assets and none of the debt. Since they can't agree a method for proportioning then it's likely that Scotland will end up with nothing.

[Kmac84]

Scotland won't vote yes en masse.

The undecided always vote for the status quo (a cognitive bias).

In general independence would be terrible for Scotland as you don't have real solutions to any of the problems that would be faced:

* eu membership not guaranteed but crucial to economy - MYTH - The UK Government could have that question answered tomorrow but they refuse to do so why?  There is a greater chance of Scotland not being in EU by staying with Status Quo.
* don't even have a currency, a currency union between uk and an independent Scotland has close to no upside for uk. MYTH - We have sterling.  A UK Government Minister has recently said the threat not to enter a currency union was a tactic.  Have you read the Sunday Herald today?
* regulation of big business: in an independent Scotland you'll see large companies like RBS leave Edinburgh. Good - I would be happy to see RBS leave and for us to nationalise our banking or at least have some sort of mutual rather than RBS. 
* division of national debt and assets: Scotland seem to want all the assets and none of the debt. Since they can't agree a method for proportioning then it's likely that Scotland will end up with nothing. - LIE - the Scottish Government has committed to taking its share of the debt for a fair split of the assetts.  But the threat not to take a share of the debt was in response to the Westminister bullying saying we couldn't have sterling - which as we now know is also a lie. 

[Doobs]

Scotland won't vote yes en masse.

The undecided always vote for the status quo (a cognitive bias).

In general independence would be terrible for Scotland as you don't have real solutions to any of the problems that would be faced:

* eu membership not guaranteed but crucial to economy - MYTH - The UK Government could have that question answered tomorrow but they refuse to do so why?  There is a greater chance of Scotland not being in EU by staying with Status Quo.
* don't even have a currency, a currency union between uk and an independent Scotland has close to no upside for uk. MYTH - We have sterling.  A UK Government Minister has recently said the threat not to enter a currency union was a tactic.  Have you read the Sunday Herald today?
* regulation of big business: in an independent Scotland you'll see large companies like RBS leave Edinburgh. Good - I would be happy to see RBS leave and for us to nationalise our banking or at least have some sort of mutual rather than RBS. 
* division of national debt and assets: Scotland seem to want all the assets and none of the debt. Since they can't agree a method for proportioning then it's likely that Scotland will end up with nothing. - LIE - the Scottish Government has committed to taking its share of the debt for a fair split of the assetts.  But the threat not to take a share of the debt was in response to the Westminister bullying saying we couldn't have sterling - which as we now know is also a lie. 

As you are of confident on the currency union with the UK, what price would you lay me it won't happen?  Of course no independence is a push. 

I assume this will be a decent price given you confident assert it is a lie. 

[Woodsey]

I admire your optimism