Independence Referendum

[Kmac84]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

It's only 'likely' because you're looking at the betting odds made up from all bets in the UK. Given the standard of the coverage I've seen from outside Scotland I can totally understand the feeling that No is highly likely to win, but Hills published their bets taken in Scotland.... 79% of bets by 11th Aug were for Yes at which points their odds were 1/8 no and 9/2 yes. The weighting of the 75% f bets on No from England is having an effect, as well as hte one punter who put £800,000 on No, an inspired idea which got more column inches than the bet would have paid for.

But if it does happen I can't see the SNP not winning the next election (Labour have murdered the party in Scotland IMO) & if they are elected the mandate is there again. I personally think they'd give it a few years to see what happens with the promises, then attack again when we're let down.

Very much this.

[Kmac84]

Have 4/11 shots never been beaten on Betfair before?

It doesn't really matter what the betting says, the betting market gets it wrong a helluva lot.  The only poll that matters on the 18th of September when we win by 56 to 44. 

[Rod Paradise]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

It's only 'likely' because you're looking at the betting odds made up from all bets in the UK. Given the standard of the coverage I've seen from outside Scotland I can totally understand the feeling that No is highly likely to win, but Hills published their bets taken in Scotland.... 79% of bets by 11th Aug were for Yes at which points their odds were 1/8 no and 9/2 yes. The weighting of the 75% f bets on No from England is having an effect, as well as hte one punter who put £800,000 on No, an inspired idea which got more column inches than the bet would have paid for.

But if it does happen I can't see the SNP not winning the next election (Labour have murdered the party in Scotland IMO) & if they are elected the mandate is there again. I personally think they'd give it a few years to see what happens with the promises, then attack again when we're let down.

I am looking at the most liquid market with £4m in real cash bet on it on betfair.  It's easily the best guide of any out there to the likelihood of the yes/not outcome imo as anyone can bet unlimited amounts of money into it at the prices (no restrictions unlike most bookies if you win).  If the prices were 'wrong' they would soon correct believe me.  People who are emotionally attached to the outcome via their campaigning might disagree but in the cold light of day this is the best poll of any out there.  Hard money talks over people telling people in polls who they will vote for but might not every day of the week.  Yes can obviously still win but, currently its 28% likely in the strongest market guide out there.

Using the number of bets placed on each outcome is a pointless stat as one pro punter having a lump on no counts as one bet but 10000 mugs having £5/£10 'interest' bets on yes because its a two horse race blah blah blah and yes is value etc etc shows a 1/10000 bet ratio

If that's the way you want to look at it go ahead. Since the only people with an actual influence are those in Scotland I'd have thought that was something to take into consideration, unless you think lots of people bet against what they believe, and do so while in the firm belief (as No were at the time) that they'd win the vote...

I answered your question anyway.

Over the Border - none of the players were betting though. Daft comparison (unless you take German bets into consideration). Or do you honestly believe the people putting on the patriotic money aren't voting Yes? And if the patriotic market is skewing the betting in Scotland, while the anglo market is skewing the odds in the UK then I know which one I reckon to pay attention to, since they actually have a vote.

What percentage of the electorate bet. Why would people lump on no at odds on. People will bet yes for a bit of fun and as they support it. Punters like arrboy may lump on as a value spot but most of the money is just novelty tenners I would guess. Nobody is going to have a novelty bet on no as it is not worth it.

To say betfair is not the best judge of the price is just wrong. It is nationwide and fully liquid, if there is more chance yes than no then lump on as you are getting 2/1 about an odds on shot

Hang on - what you're saying is that 'those bets don't count' but the betting market is the best judge? The betting market is the best judge of what the betting population thinks the result is going to be, on an issue that is UKwide, where everyone has the same understanding I'd go along with that. BUT where the result is dependant on a  small subset of the UK, and that small subset is faced with a lot more information and a vested interest in understanding the issues then I think your reliance on the UKwide market is foolhardy.

If I find out a load of people with connections to a racehorse are lumping bets on it I pay attention, whether the odds are long or not.

In the end it makes not a jot of difference to the result, if you wish to go by the oracle of Betfair then fire away.

[arbboy]

Crucial thing about betfair is that it doesn't suffer from bias or blind support like most of the punters on here show!

[DungBeetle]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

[arbboy]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

[Woodsey]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

[OverTheBorder]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

[Rod Paradise]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

Fine we're the outside bet. Just a thought if all those who voted in the original poll on here bet £10 what would the odds be? And if we looked at how many were Scottish with a vote what would the result be?

The idea of market intelligence is valid, but it's not at it's best unless the whole market is informed and if the whole market has the same influence on the result...

The whole betting tips thread is about finding where the market has missed a trick and exploiting it, I gather you don't go into betting threads arguing that the Market is infallible?

[Woodsey]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

You might need visas soon mate too 

[Rod Paradise]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

If only Osborne would heed the advice of Mark Carney and stop ruling out a currency union. the over-leveraged pound can't afford to lose 10% of GDP....

[OverTheBorder]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

You might need visas soon mate too 

I told the mrs we are moving to London if it's a yes vote thinking it may influence her. I think she voted yes cause she wants to live in London....I should campaign for KMAC

[Rod Paradise]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

You might need visas soon mate too 

Don't be mean to him, the UK passports stay valid even after Independence Day. Dual passports - handy.

[Woodsey]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

You might need visas soon mate too 

I told the mrs we are moving to London if it's a yes vote thinking it may influence her. I think she voted yes cause she wants to live in London....I should campaign for KMAC

My Scottish colleague has told me she might well move to England also, I thought she was joking at first but no she is serious.

[arbboy]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

Fine we're the outside bet. Just a thought if all those who voted in the original poll on here bet £10 what would the odds be? And if we looked at how many were Scottish with a vote what would the result be?

The idea of market intelligence is valid, but it's not at it's best when the whole market is informed and if the whole market has the same influence on the result...

The whole betting tips thread is about finding where the market has missed a trick and exploiting it, I gather you don't go into betting threads arguing that the Market is infallible?

I assume you mean its not at it's best when the market is UNINFORMED as it is perfectly at it's best when the market is completely informed.