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Author Topic: Sunday Storm 22 left  (Read 4190 times)
TL900
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« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2013, 03:13:00 PM »

I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
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« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2013, 04:44:26 PM »

I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.

Disagree about peels with 20 left. I watched some of this and don't think I can find a fold.
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TL900
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« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2013, 05:16:53 PM »

I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.

Disagree about peels with 20 left. I watched some of this and don't think I can find a fold.

why will the fact that 20 people are left make whales not want to peel? Its the sunday storm lol.
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
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« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2013, 05:28:44 PM »

I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.


cant really see a super tuesday and all the high stuff reg not trying to exploit everyone in the storm. or for that matter worry about being peeled by storm level goons.
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pleno1
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« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2013, 05:39:41 PM »

with these stack sizes and vs villain and the rest of the field i think its the second best option after folding.
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Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of  fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
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« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2013, 05:52:46 PM »

Perhaps I'm looking at it wrong somehow, but it looks like a rather standard fold to me.
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« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2013, 07:17:17 PM »

Perhaps I'm looking at it wrong somehow, but it looks like a rather standard fold to me.


we are not shoving jj-aa here are we???
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Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of  fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
TL900
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« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2013, 07:44:17 PM »

Perhaps I'm looking at it wrong somehow, but it looks like a rather standard fold to me.


we are not shoving jj-aa here are we???

if he has any hands on me previous then definitely shove. Also if he is 1 tabling i would shove should snap OPR/sharkscope someone if they flat here on 15bb
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
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« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2013, 12:40:34 AM »

Thought this would be spilt opinions lol. The two main reasons why I shoved were the fact he was playing pretty agg, opened UTG several times ! wish I used poker tracker and had the stats to show. I had been playing with him for about 150 hands and he was using his stack quite wel from what i could gather and for me his range deffo included 99/88/77/ and may be 66. also KQ/KJs/A9s. This was confirmed even more so after watching it to a conclusion!  I also 3 bet all in twice and got called twice why he was at the table and had AA and QQ. Just for the record, peeling here is an absolute no go for me in this spot against such a big stack and plus a good spot for a squeeze from SB/BB. Folding is deffo an option but given the circumstances and after 24 hrs to think about it i would ship again here.
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« Reply #24 on: April 02, 2013, 08:40:21 PM »

I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.

Disagree about peels with 20 left. I watched some of this and don't think I can find a fold.

why will the fact that 20 people are left make whales not want to peel? Its the sunday storm lol.

Most "whales" know that 35k is up top or whatever. I think you'd be surprised just how nitty they can get when there is this sort of money on the line.
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« Reply #25 on: April 05, 2013, 07:44:05 AM »

jamming here vs anyone whos shown signs of being aggro/opening wide

This^^^
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« Reply #26 on: April 05, 2013, 07:45:40 AM »

Is a small 3b-fold really bad?

Think that's gonna be my line..

Unless I've misread it, it look like we have less than 20bb so 3 bet fold is kinda out of the question.

Making the 3bet here with 20bb also looks super strong and looks like your trying to sneak some value. YOu can make these moves work. Just finding the right spot.
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The only difference between praying in a Church and praying at the poker table is that when you pray at the poker table you really mean it.
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Is this some kind of hilarious practical joke?


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« Reply #27 on: April 05, 2013, 02:21:47 PM »

OK where to start.

Point A) I think there are quite a few good spots to 3bet out of less then 20BBs, but I do not think this is one of them. Our hand has a lot of AIPF equity, so I think we're burning money by 3bet/folding it this shallow vs an UTG opening range which contains a lot of hands which can jam on us. We can't just assume that this guy is going to have such an easily manipulated range, in my experience MTT regs have a very "oh wtf, if he's got it, he's got it, I 'aint foldin'!" kind of attitude when they are faced with these decisions with the bottom of their raise/call range (ie 77-99, AJss) If you are going to play the hand to an open playing 6M at 20k/40k you must shove IMHO.

Point 2) Peeling is not an option. We are too shallow with a hand that doesn't flop very well vs an UTG opening rage. We just get into too many "fml" spots where we have second pair or a bad draw or something and not enough maneuverability due to the shallow pot to stack ratio. The only hands I'd peel here are AA/KK.

Point III) Folding is definitely a legit option, but it completely depends on game flow. Just because he's a HS reg doesn't mean he's going to be opening really wide utg into loads of cheese cakes who are likely to put up resistance. That being said, these cheese cakes do lock up a lot once you get down to the last 2/3 tables because they are so scare-scare of busting. In my experience these opponents do generally try not to risk their tournament lives until they absolutely have to (obviously this rule has exceptions, this is just what I've noticed over the last 3/4 years of playing mtts). A lot of regs (inc. myself) however, will just relentlessly open into these guys no matter how shallow they are because of waht I just said, they really don't reshove on you enough to NOT make a profit opening. Also, stealing the blinds and keeping these guys handcuffed by their stacks vastly improves your equity and reduces your variance because you earn yourself a lovely little cushion so when you do have to get it in vs one of the shorties it doesn't cripple you if you lose.
So, it completely depends on which type of reg you think he is, and only you can know whether it was a good shove or not really because you were the only one at the table. It's that close imo.

I think I end up shoving, but not loving it at all.  If he opens a few spots over I'm LOVING it.

Oh and just as a footnote:

Quote
I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.

ATo has much better AIPF equity than T9ss, you should use Pokerstove or similar before making comments like this, because they're not opinion, they can be solved mathematically.
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Is this some kind of hilarious practical joke?
TL900
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« Reply #28 on: April 05, 2013, 02:31:20 PM »


Oh and just as a footnote:

Quote
I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.

ATo has much better AIPF equity than T9ss, you should use Pokerstove or similar before making comments like this, because they're not opinion, they can be solved mathematically.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,417,787,712  games     0.000 secs   283,557,542,400  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    68.919%     67.68%    01.24%         959603280     17518698.00   { 77+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1:    31.081%     29.85%    01.24%         423147036     17518698.00   { ATo }


---

 534,238,848  games     0.000 secs   106,847,769,600  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    65.725%     65.43%    00.30%         349540644      1586226.00   { 77+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1:    34.275%     33.98%    00.30%         181525752      1586226.00   { T9s }


Maybe you should use pokerstove before talking to me like a idiot.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2013, 02:37:22 PM by TL900 » Logged

@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
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« Reply #29 on: April 05, 2013, 02:36:27 PM »

if you think 77+, AJs+ and AQo+ is his calling range (against which we have 33%..) when we shove, you realise we need a shit tonne of fold equity/him to be opening really rather super duper wide to make either hand a shove? since you don't think he's opening JTo where everyone loves a peel, what do you think he's opening?
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