blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
March 28, 2024, 10:22:49 AM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2272476 Posts in 66752 Topics by 16944 Members
Latest Member: Blader
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Community Forums
| |-+  The Lounge
| | |-+  UK General Election 2015
0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Poll
Question: I will be voting for the following in the General election  (Voting closed: May 10, 2015, 02:10:42 PM)
Conservative - 41 (40.6%)
Labour - 20 (19.8%)
Liberal Democrat - 6 (5.9%)
SNP - 9 (8.9%)
UKIP - 3 (3%)
Green - 7 (6.9%)
Other - 3 (3%)
I will not be voting - 12 (11.9%)
Total Voters: 100

Pages: 1 ... 34 35 36 37 [38] 39 40 41 42 ... 155 Go Down Print
Author Topic: UK General Election 2015  (Read 252494 times)
DungBeetle
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4925


View Profile
« Reply #555 on: April 13, 2015, 10:32:33 PM »

Miliband has done alright.  He's made an effort to point out how his expenditure will be funded.  Pretty credible campaign so far.
Logged
George2Loose
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15214



View Profile
« Reply #556 on: April 14, 2015, 12:11:07 AM »

Can't help but feel if David Milliband was leader that labour would be looking at trouncing the Conservatives however the more I see of Ed the more he impresses me. Cameron looks quite weary and stressed
Logged

Ole Ole Ole Ole!
Rexas
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 1963


View Profile
« Reply #557 on: April 14, 2015, 01:42:16 AM »

My perspective on all this bollocks, it might turn into an essay but whatever...

I basically have no idea who to vote for, because it seems like trying to choose the least bad out of a bad bunch. I have no ties to any of the parties and frankly I think the best thing would be for a coalition that does nothing for a few years until one of the parties decides it actually wants to lead the country. Also I don't know a great deal about each parties manifesto, this is just what has reached me from reading the news and watching the debate without going any further into it, so a lot of focus will be on the leaders themselves. But I think they are what people see most often and it's their faces that we think of when we think of each individual party, so I think it's important they come across well. Just my two cents Smiley

I take issue with the conservatives for a few reasons. Since I'm a student I'm obviously not happy about the tuition fees thing, but the road the conservatives seem to want to go down with regards to censorship bothers me a little. It feels like a very slippery slope when they start censoring religious extremist websites etc to censoring political websites who oppose them, and the whole thing about wanting to ban whatsapp because they couldn't police it properly is a further sign that they want to move towards a more heavily censored environment, which in my opinion is very bad indeed. Also Cameron comes across as a bit of a douche, but whatever. In their defence though, the help to buy scheme for housing seems pretty good and the economy does seem to be getting itself sorted.

Labour... I mean, I just can't get past Milliband. I know it's not just about the leader, it's about the entire party, but the man is a joke. Someone who is as posh and awkward as he is talking about representing the working class is absurd, his monologues to the camera were on the patronising side, and of the main party leaders he seems to come pretty firmly in to last place. I mean, whichever leader it is who gets into power will be the face of this country and should be a person we are proud to look at and say "this man represents what is good about our country, and he inspires confidence in me that he will do what's best for us". The guy stabbed his own brother in the back to get to his position, and he looks and sounds like a gimp. More than that, his own party thought he best embodied their ethos, and that's seems a little daming of their IQ or of their lack of real candidates. I will never be able to look at Milliband and/or Balls and be proud to say they are the figurehead of my nation.

As for the lib dems, Clegg spent most of him time over the last few years apologising for being forced to go back on his plans. I thought he came across very well in the debate, and he does seem to talk a lot of sense with regards to the party policies, and I guess if I had to choose one then I'd choose them. But they still seem to be too obscure to be real contenders compared to labour and the tories. The last few years seemed like their opportunity to step up and present themselves as a real force in government, and to me they seem to have stayed small. Also he needs to grow a backbone off camera to force his party into the forefront.

UKIP obviously talk a load of bollocks, it's a shame Farage is so mental since he was a very noticeable and enthusiastic presence on the tv debate. I really have so little time for what is basically impractical racism used to form policies, and it seems too many facts conveniently wash over him when they threaten his point of view. I feel like the fact that UKIP are appealing to more people now is not because they are that much stronger than before, but because the others are that much weaker.

Green I just have to lol at, she got ripped apart in that radio interview a few weeks back and her performance at the debate was dire. She spent more time talking about the rest of the world and to be honest, when considering who is going to run the country, I want someone who is going to focus first on us. It's all well and good policing the world, but right now we've got our own problems, and she didn't seem to have anything worth hearing to say about them.

The SNP came across very well, although admittedly I know little about them and can't remember their leader's name. Still, she made a good impression, was suitably hostile towards the others and as this is the first time I was properly introduced to the SNP as a party I'd say it looks pretty good. Of all of the leaders, I felt like she took advantage of the situation to further her party more than any of the others. Got negative connotations around them because of the BNP though, idk if they're justified. What happened to the BNP anyway? They were always so moderate.

Plaid Cymru... Yh, she needs to stop saying that so much. But at least I know how to pronounce it now.
Logged

humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
I disrepectfully agree with Matt Smiley
maccol
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 930



View Profile
« Reply #558 on: April 14, 2015, 11:25:24 AM »

There is no connection whatsoever between SNP and BNP.
Logged

Embracing the variance.
DungBeetle
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4925


View Profile
« Reply #559 on: April 14, 2015, 11:41:21 AM »

It's like connecting the KKK with the Kolkata Knight Riders Smiley
Logged
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #560 on: April 14, 2015, 11:45:19 AM »

There is no connection whatsoever between SNP and BNP.

oh don't spoil it. I've been smiling all morning about it!
Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #561 on: April 14, 2015, 11:47:13 AM »

leaving all personal preferences aside, and just concentrating on the spreads/value/your expectations

buy or sell any of these (notionally)?

 Click to see full-size image.
Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
DungBeetle
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4925


View Profile
« Reply #562 on: April 14, 2015, 11:51:28 AM »

I've been checking these trends - Tories have been dropping steadily the last 2 weeks.  Spin had them 16 seats ahead at one point.

Would probably buy Labour the way the campaign is going - but feel like I've missed the boat so won't be doing so.
Logged
DungBeetle
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4925


View Profile
« Reply #563 on: April 14, 2015, 11:53:10 AM »

Worth noting that just this morning the Tory lead was only 8 seats, so something has happned the last couple of hours (either big bet on Tories or some policy announcement).
Logged
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #564 on: April 14, 2015, 12:01:06 PM »

Worth noting that just this morning the Tory lead was only 8 seats, so something has happned the last couple of hours (either big bet on Tories or some policy announcement).

manifesto launch




just out of interest, does anyone ever read the election manifesto of any party?
Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
StuartHopkin
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 8163


Ocho cinco


View Profile
« Reply #565 on: April 14, 2015, 01:49:53 PM »

Looking at the Poll of Polls http://may2015.com/

Can some explain why 283 of 650 seats = 34% conservatives not 43%

Also where do the SNP seats disappear to on the table that shows

34.0% Conservative
33.4% Labour
12.8% UKIP
8.2% Lib Dem
5.6% Green

Finally what is an Ashcroft seat?
Logged

Only 23 days to go until the Berlin Marathon! Please sponsor me at www.virginmoneygiving.com/StuartHopkin
DungBeetle
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4925


View Profile
« Reply #566 on: April 14, 2015, 01:54:40 PM »

Is it not that they are anticipated to get 34% of the vote which they estimate translates to 283 seats?

For example if UKIP get 13% of the vote, they won't get anywhere near 13% of the seats.
Logged
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #567 on: April 14, 2015, 01:58:25 PM »

Looking at the Poll of Polls http://may2015.com/

Can some explain why 283 of 650 seats = 34% conservatives not 43%

Also where do the SNP seats disappear to on the table that shows

34.0% Conservative
33.4% Labour
12.8% UKIP
8.2% Lib Dem
5.6% Green

Finally what is an Ashcroft seat?

Lord Ashcroft, billionaire tory peer. operates a polling company that is quite unique in that it surveys marginals in seats and reports on them weekly. an aschcroft seat is a marginal that he regularly polls and reports on

there were 10 this morning for example


basically the con-lab vote shares on poll of polls are currently tied. but the election is 650 constituencies of different sizes (con constituencies tend to be bigger, more votes needed to win them) so the national vote share does not correspond to number of seats won. it depends where the seats are

labour needs to win 24 english tory seats to be largest party if all other things are equal compared to 2010

but all other things aren't equal

a) LD seats going from 57 to 25-30, and how those seats are lost to con-lab is one thing
b) labour is set to lose 30+ in scotland to snp

The figure of Conservative seats that Labour needs to win to become the largest party rises to around 50 if they lose 30+ to snp

rough rule of thumb is

each Labour gain from Conservative in England offsets two SNP gains from Labour.
The Conservatives need to be 3% clear across range of pollsters to get the most seats

0n current estimates con +ld =270/280+30=310 so not a majority

lab+snp= 270/280+45/50=possible majority

which is why the electoral maths this time round makes it much more likely that miliband is prime minister in june than cameron
Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
redsimon
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 8706



View Profile
« Reply #568 on: April 14, 2015, 02:01:27 PM »

Is Ashcroft polling in individual Scottish Constituencies? I was wondering what % of Scottish Labour held seats are being defended by a sitting MP and whether they are harder to fall to SNP because of "incumbency" factor?

Logged

Success has many parents but failure is an orphan

http://www.organdonation.nhs.uk
AndrewT
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15493



View Profile WWW
« Reply #569 on: April 14, 2015, 02:07:44 PM »

leaving all personal preferences aside, and just concentrating on the spreads/value/your expectations

buy or sell any of these (notionally)?

 Click to see full-size image.


UKIP is a sell - that bandwagon is running out of steam fast. Even if they hold the 2 they have (marginal), Farage wins (in the balance) they'd still have to pick another up from somewhere for the bet to lose. It is, of course, a skewed market as the potential high side is so much bigger than the low (which is why the spread is so wide compared to Plaid) but I just think UKIP is a dead duck now.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 34 35 36 37 [38] 39 40 41 42 ... 155 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.237 seconds with 23 queries.