UK General Election 2015

[ripple11]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

cheers

massive enormous price

next prime minister is 10/11 each of two

for one of those 10/11 shots

Cam is going to need DUP and their 9 MPs

so if you are of the view that Conservative get 280+ and LD get 30ish then the only hope they have is to get DUP's 9 in

the only way Cam wouldn't need DUP is if Conservative got nearly 300 (depending on the final LD number)


for the other 10/11 shot, minority government is obviously far more likely than any coalition, but Lab/SNP could fall short of 323 (270+50, say) and Lab-SDLP might be in a coalition then relying on SNP vote by vote

18-1 now 14-1 staggered me

if i am missing something, please speak up!

Obviously Skybet's definition of "coalition" is the key.  No matter who wins, a NI party will support the government - the sdlp will support labour and the unionists will support the tories.  I imagine the definition will involve being in the government and not simply a declaration of support.

thanks yes

DUP will be formal coalition, i would have thought. 9 seats = a position or two in government too

SDLP might not be

big price (or was)

I would be very surprised if that happened given NI political sensitivities.

well the DUP are going to have to be chucked something right?

any party, even with 1 seat, is going to have to be chucked something starting friday, if you want them onside....

Heard someone fairly senior from the DUP say on the radio they wouldn't enter any formal coalition...so this put me off a week or so ago, ....although of course who knows what Friday brings!

[nirvana]

Trying to equate gambling to the 'real' world doesn't work.

We live in a bubble where we are essentially self employed in a highly niche market.  Obv we get help from mates, contacts but the majority of our success will be down to us.  There is huge survivor bias too.

In the 'real' world everything is far more connected and complicated to compare.

Course it works, running a business and gambling are the same thing, most stsrt up businesses fail the same as most start up lol pro gamblers fail. There is a reason every time, the ones who fail are not focused enough work hard enough or are smart enough. There is no difference.

It's like the phrase 'empty vessels....' was coined for you

[dakky]

Do you regret not working hard enough to have the capital to invest in what you knew would be a superstar business?

I love 365 with a passion...I know most of the senior guys there still...

Can u get my account unrestricted plzthnxs?

[nirvana]

I'm not disputing that it takes balls to take a risk and be  achieve immense financial success. I'm disputing the validity of shining a light on a very extreme case and using it as a metric to determine how hard people should work to be successful.

Then turning around and saying well everyone outside this top few percent didn't work hard enough, so we're going to use this as a pretext to justify huge tax breaks for the wealthiest and to reduce the size of the state which disproportionately affects the bottom 50? 60? 80?%

If the world that we live in was a 100% pure meritocracy where everyone got out what they put in then I would be completely agreeing with you, but we don't live in that world. Its hard to see this from the other side of the fence. The thing that we are all the most blind to is our own privilege. Especially so when very rich and powerful people with huge interests in maintaining the status quo run the majority of the media and broadcast that message every day.

Since we don't live in that pure meritocracy, I believe that its fair and right that the very wealthiest individuals and corporations contribute more and that the most effective way to make that contribution count is to lift everyone from the bottom via education, public services and good universal healthcare. Not by stuffing even more money into the pockets of the super rich because apparently we need them to give us all jobs and they might all leave if they are asked to contribute more.

I'm not arguing for a return to the 83% top rate of tax that existed before Thatcher and I'm not trying to demonise the wealthy and successful. I don't begrudge Denise and other business owners their fortunes, but I do think that by taking an extra few percent from their millions and injecting it into the bottom and the middle of the wealth distribution can make this country a better place for everyone at relatively little cost to those at the top.

Half most of a lot of our ages and such a thoughtful post

[AndrewT]

Arbboy, I'm not quite sure you can use Denise Coates as an example of hard work and talent getting you places on their own when her dad was worth £15m - that's exactly the type of luck I'm talking about. She was the daughter of someone who was already quite successful in the industry. She had a headstart others didn't.

I'm not denying that she also worked very hard and spotted an opportunity that others didn't, and certainly made the most of it. Bet365 have a brilliant product. But so could someone else have spotted internet betting would take off, and have started working really hard at it, but have fallen down on the 'not having £15m lying about' part.

Pokerstars are the biggest and best poker company in the world, full of very smart people who worked very hard. But without the UIGEA, something they had no control over, pure luck, would they have 60% of the market on their own by now? Uncle Sam cleared away their competition - all Stars had to do was not pull out and they used that US revenue to price out the competition in advertising in other markets.

There's luck everywhere that we don't see, and there is an inherent bias in that it is in successful people's best interests to be blind to it, and think their success is all off their own back.

[arbboy]

Arbboy, I'm not quite sure you can use Denise Coates as an example of hard work and talent getting you places on their own when her dad was worth £15m - that's exactly the type of luck I'm talking about. She was the daughter of someone who was already quite successful in the industry. She had a headstart others didn't.

I'm not denying that she also worked very hard and spotted an opportunity that others didn't, and certainly made the most of it. Bet365 have a brilliant product. But so could someone else have spotted internet betting would take off, and have started working really hard at it, but have fallen down on the 'not having £15m lying about' part.

Pokerstars are the biggest and best poker company in the world, full of very smart people who worked very hard. But without the UIGEA, something they had no control over, pure luck, would they have 60% of the market on their own by now? Uncle Sam cleared away their competition - all Stars had to do was not pull out and they used that US revenue to price out the competition in advertising in other markets.

There's luck everywhere that we don't see, and there is an inherent bias in that it is in successful people's best interests to be blind to it, and think their success is all off their own back.

She didn't have £15m lying around.  She had to sell it to her mum and dad that the family silver was going on the line if she fucked up.  The risk in 2001 on what she did was insane.  It is easy looking back in 2015 and saying 'it is easy with £15m behind her' but the reality is the family put the life savings from 30 years of grinding small businesses when they could have just lived a comfy life in stoke on the £15m and never worked again.  She has created 3500 direct jobs and probably 10000 indirect jobs in stoke in the last 15 years.

As for poker stars they knew they were trading illegally for years before they got busto'd.  They took the chance as a private company and paid the price.  Numerous friends i know lost fortunes in share value from share options with 'legal' ftse floated betting companies when the legal company's who didn't break the law pulled out of the illegal areas when stars and tilt kept rolling with the illegal money and profits until they run into uncle sam.  Poker stars were trading illegally for 3 or 4 years and that is the only reason they are where they are now.  All the plc poker firms had to pull the plug on their poker product for legal reasons which gifted stars their 'edge'.  Don't buy the hype that stars were world class at running an online poker firm.  They were the only one willing to or  'allowed' to do what they did because they were privately owned.

[TightEnd]

this made me chuckle

"Labour just need to take Brent Central and hold Hampstead & Kilburn and that's Blockbusters"

[DMorgan]

Arbboy, I'm not quite sure you can use Denise Coates as an example of hard work and talent getting you places on their own when her dad was worth £15m - that's exactly the type of luck I'm talking about. She was the daughter of someone who was already quite successful in the industry. She had a headstart others didn't.

I'm not denying that she also worked very hard and spotted an opportunity that others didn't, and certainly made the most of it. Bet365 have a brilliant product. But so could someone else have spotted internet betting would take off, and have started working really hard at it, but have fallen down on the 'not having £15m lying about' part.

Pokerstars are the biggest and best poker company in the world, full of very smart people who worked very hard. But without the UIGEA, something they had no control over, pure luck, would they have 60% of the market on their own by now? Uncle Sam cleared away their competition - all Stars had to do was not pull out and they used that US revenue to price out the competition in advertising in other markets.

There's luck everywhere that we don't see, and there is an inherent bias in that it is in successful people's best interests to be blind to it, and think their success is all off their own back.

She didn't have £15m lying around.  She had to sell it to her mum and dad that the family silver was going on the line if she fucked up.  The risk in 2001 on what she did was insane.  It is easy looking back in 2015 and saying 'it is easy with £15m behind her' but the reality is the family put the life savings from 30 years of grinding small businesses when they could have just lived a comfy life in stoke on the £15m and never worked again.  She has created 3500 direct jobs and probably 10000 indirect jobs in stoke in the last 15 years.

As for poker stars they knew they were trading illegally for years before they got busto'd.  They took the chance as a private company and paid the price.  Numerous friends i know lost fortunes in share value from share options with 'legal' ftse floated betting companies when the legal company's who didn't break the law pulled out of the illegal areas when stars and tilt kept rolling with the illegal money and profits until they run into uncle sam.  Poker stars were trading illegally for 3 or 4 years and that is the only reason they are where they are now.  All the plc poker firms had to pull the plug on their poker product for legal reasons which gifted stars their 'edge'.  Don't buy the hype that stars were world class at running an online poker firm.  They were the only one willing to or  'allowed' to do what they did because they were privately owned.

Horse confirmed dead

[Whollyflush]

"Fooled by Randomness" might be a book worth reading, if you underestimate the aspects of hidden luck in all walks of life.

[Woodsey]

"Fooled by Randomness" might be a book worth reading, if you underestimate the aspects of hidden luck in all walks of life.

Equally a book like this and many others are useful if anyone wants to know how to pull their finger out and change their life for the good.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_7_Habits_of_Highly_Effective_People

[TightEnd]

Former Cabinet Secretary Lord O'Donnell explains possible scenarios for coalition negotiations http://bbc.in/1PoBVtB 

[doubleup]

 Numerous friends i know lost fortunes in share value from share options with 'legal' ftse floated betting companies when the legal company's who didn't break the law pulled out of the illegal areas when stars and tilt kept rolling with the illegal money and profits until they run into uncle sam.  

Sorry were they trading illegally or not in the USA?  If they were, then your friends were making money from criminal activities, if they weren't why did the companies pull out?

(To forestall any derail, UIGEA didn't make any gambling illegal, it just made the funding of illegal gambling an offence.)

[The Camel]

Click to see full-size image.

[Kmac84]

Arbboy you are such a condescending nob. 

You seriously can't believe the utter bollocks you type. 

[arbboy]

Arbboy you are such a condescending nob.  

You seriously can't believe the utter bollocks you type.  

I don't expect people like you to agree with me.  Equally i don't expect to be called a nob.  I appreciate you have different views to me.  I don't call you a nob because of that.

I don't think anything i have said today is anything other than factual.  You might not agree with it but that is your choice.  Hard working people who are willing to bet their entire net worth deserve everything they get when they make great investment decisions and create thousands of jobs in areas which are full of unemployment.  It is very easy to sit on your arse all your life and take no risks and moan.  I prefer to celebrate people who take huge risks and are huge exporters to this country like bet365 are and pay huge amounts of tax towards the nhs.  It doesn't fund itself.