The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Boris Johnson ducking the Heathrow vote is yet another instance of him pissing inside the tent as well as outside of it.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/04/boris-johnson-has-achieved-impossible-he-s-been-even-worse-expected

[TightEnd]

Cancelling Brexit might spark a hard right backlash. But delivering Brexit definitely will, says

including the quite memorable sub-headline

"We are so monumentally screwed."

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/06/cancelling-brexit-might-spark-hard-right-backlash-delivering-brexit

[TightEnd]

 on the likely shape of Brexit deal https://www.ft.com/content/f67f71f4-753c-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601 …

[TightEnd]

UBS survey of 600 companies spells out Brexit "dividend":
- 35% of companies plan to reduce UK investment post-Brexit
- 41% plan to move a large amount of capacity out of UK
- 42% plan to shift capacity to euro zone

as one wag put it "Brexit is just so fucking weird. Like a neurosurgeon asking the public to vote, using instinct alone, on whether or not they should operate."

[TightEnd]

"The primary problem with Brexit is that a complex process which needs time has been treated as a simple exercise to be done at speed.

And from that, almost everything follows."

"I’d argue central disaster of Brexit originates in a different form of arrogance. UK gov fundamentally believed it would be granted special favours even if that breached EU rules & lost EU its political advantage. British exceptionalism has brought Britain to its knees."

two Academics today

[nirvana]

UBS survey of 600 companies spells out Brexit "dividend":
- 35% of companies plan to reduce UK investment post-Brexit
- 41% plan to move a large amount of capacity out of UK
- 42% plan to shift capacity to euro zone

as one wag put it "Brexit is just so fucking weird. Like a neurosurgeon asking the public to vote, using instinct alone, on whether or not they should operate."

Ha, we won't be so attractive for Johnny Foreigner to come here nicking our jobs then

[nirvana]

UBS survey of 600 companies spells out Brexit "dividend":
- 35% of companies plan to reduce UK investment post-Brexit
- 41% plan to move a large amount of capacity out of UK
- 42% plan to shift capacity to euro zone

as one wag put it "Brexit is just so fucking weird. Like a neurosurgeon asking the public to vote, using instinct alone, on whether or not they should operate."

It should be said that this was a survey of European companies and that, put another way, 65% of European owned companies do not expect to reduce investment in the UK - perhaps we should focus on their rationale for not taking investment out of the UK and we might find something positive to say about Britain post Brexit. In addition, quite a lot of the investment will be redirected to central and Eastern Europe - something that happens now - but business likes an excuse for shutting a plant even when they can do it with impunity anyway.

On a related note - it's incredible to me that the best argument repeatedly advanced for remaining in the EU is related to economics and what corporations will / won't do.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains at punishing levels in Greece and much of Southern Europe, the EU can't agree a way to handle the humanitarian disaster of migration from North Africa, far right parties are on the rise across Europe and the EU develops no meaningful response to any of these issues. It's pretty limited to ignore these things and just keep beating the apocalyptic drum.

[TightEnd]

UBS survey of 600 companies spells out Brexit "dividend":
- 35% of companies plan to reduce UK investment post-Brexit
- 41% plan to move a large amount of capacity out of UK
- 42% plan to shift capacity to euro zone

as one wag put it "Brexit is just so fucking weird. Like a neurosurgeon asking the public to vote, using instinct alone, on whether or not they should operate."

It should be said that this was a survey of European companies and that, put another way, 65% of European owned companies do not expect to reduce investment in the UK - perhaps we should focus on their rationale for not taking investment out of the UK and we might find something positive to say about Britain post Brexit. In addition, quite a lot of the investment will be redirected to central and Eastern Europe - something that happens now - but business likes an excuse for shutting a plant even when they can do it with impunity anyway.

On a related note - it's incredible to me that the best argument repeatedly advanced for remaining in the EU is related to economics and what corporations will / won't do.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains at punishing levels in Greece and much of Southern Europe, the EU can't agree a way to handle the humanitarian disaster of migration from North Africa, far right parties are on the rise across Europe and the EU develops no meaningful response to any of these issues. It's pretty limited to ignore these things and just keep beating the apocalyptic drum.

because there is no economic solution to brexit that works for the uk. the cost in terms of lost GDP, employment etc often seems to be dismissed as "won't happen to me".meanwhile the government is still busy two years on trying to reconcile competing views in its own party, rather than preparing adequately. most of the people in government who can countenance "no deal" previously did very well out of business and are thus insulated, which would be ironic if it weren't so perplexing that a good number of people who agree with them who care about sovereignty and free movement (or not) much more than they do the economics are so exposed to what is about to happen

they should be stockpiling food, saving every penny for what lies ahead! i mentioned that to someone at the weekend, in the five minutes before we had to change the subject before we fell out, and he looked at me like i was stark raving bonkers ;-)

nor is there a solution to the irish border issue, it seems to me

of course the EU's weaknesses,some of which you list, are very valid but its possible to be a remainer without being blind to those problems

[TightEnd]

Business Secretary Greg Clark went further than I've heard him before at today's Times CEO summit.
Here is the -softest possible- brexit section of his speech
** Castigating brexiteers
** Demanding access for service industries
** "Labour mobility"

how does May reconcile this with boris and davis? answer she can't. something has to give

[MANTIS01]

UBS survey of 600 companies spells out Brexit "dividend":
- 35% of companies plan to reduce UK investment post-Brexit
- 41% plan to move a large amount of capacity out of UK
- 42% plan to shift capacity to euro zone

as one wag put it "Brexit is just so fucking weird. Like a neurosurgeon asking the public to vote, using instinct alone, on whether or not they should operate."

It should be said that this was a survey of European companies and that, put another way, 65% of European owned companies do not expect to reduce investment in the UK - perhaps we should focus on their rationale for not taking investment out of the UK and we might find something positive to say about Britain post Brexit. In addition, quite a lot of the investment will be redirected to central and Eastern Europe - something that happens now - but business likes an excuse for shutting a plant even when they can do it with impunity anyway.

On a related note - it's incredible to me that the best argument repeatedly advanced for remaining in the EU is related to economics and what corporations will / won't do.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains at punishing levels in Greece and much of Southern Europe, the EU can't agree a way to handle the humanitarian disaster of migration from North Africa, far right parties are on the rise across Europe and the EU develops no meaningful response to any of these issues. It's pretty limited to ignore these things and just keep beating the apocalyptic drum.

because there is no economic solution to brexit that works for the uk. the cost in terms of lost GDP, employment etc often seems to be dismissed as "won't happen to me".meanwhile the government is still busy two years on trying to reconcile competing views in its own party, rather than preparing adequately. most of the people in government who can countenance "no deal" previously did very well out of business and are thus insulated, which would be ironic if it weren't so perplexing that a good number of people who agree with them who care about sovereignty and free movement (or not) much more than they do the economics are so exposed to what is about to happen

they should be stockpiling food, saving every penny for what lies ahead! i mentioned that to someone at the weekend, in the five minutes before we had to change the subject before we fell out, and he looked at me like i was stark raving bonkers ;-)

nor is there a solution to the irish border issue, it seems to me

of course the EU's weaknesses,some of which you list, are very valid but its possible to be a remainer without being blind to those problems

Yea but it’s like always complaining about the weather, which is ironically very British of you Tighty.

Agree with nirvantz, Europe is tez and the leaders are all remarkably grumpy

[RickBFA]

It’s been my opinion for a while now that the EU project will end in tears.

The constant drive to expand membership into a rigid “one size fits all” policy is fundamentally flawed in my view.

Trying to get a basket case economy like Greece or even the likes of Italy/Spain to fulfil the same economic criteria and laws as a power house like Germany makes no sense.

Their obsession with the EU as a political and ideological project will be it’s downfall.

The Euro was only last month under threat from the Italian crisis. Some financial crisis will de-rail it at some point.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the whole EU unravel in 10-15 years. Things are cyclical and people have a habit of doing the unexpected when it comes to Government and powerful institutions.

Just my opinion. I’m sure the smarter people on here will think it’s delusional 

[TightEnd]

THE most brutal assessment of Brexit by the US embassy in London on "Inside the US Embassy" on channel 4

anyone see it?

- the economy is gonna tank
- the British Government isn't interested in telling people they got it wrong
- worst kind of inflation (from an outside shock)
- Brexit ends up not helping people
- leavers are absolutely terrified

[TightEnd]

just found this summary from skynews

- occurs when a very worried head of the Federal Aviation Agency Michael Huerta arrives worried about plane tickets not being valid when UK EU air safety status “evaporates”

AA’s Huerta points out to the US ambassador that schedules need to be set six months out “If they don’t know what future state is, its very hard for them to sell tickets... concern this is not high enough up the agenda at DEXEU” - Ambassador then talks about how to elevate it

when FAA’s Huerta gets a briefed by US embassy political/economic staff - opens up by asking:

“Does the public have an notion of what the conditions of exit actually are?”

US embassy analysts then variously discuss with visiting top Trump official

- how UK public hasn’t yet internalised: “the economy is going to tank I better sit on my cash”

- “Government not done a lot of for macro analysis almost deliberately” so as not to upset Brexit voters

Embassy economists then tell Huerta that

- UK growth slowing down “longer term slower slide” including “inflation from an outside shock - worst kind of inflation”
- People tired of austerity .. If Brexit ends up not obviously helping them could have political knock on effects..

Perhaps the US embassy political analyst’s assessment to Huerta is most acute though:

“British Government isn’t interested in telling the British people - this thing that 52% of you said you wanted - here are the range of options: there’s less good & then there’s very very bad”

“The EU27 say: ‘we are a club here are the rules, you tell us how many of the rules you are prepared to accept - and we will tell you where in the clubhouse you can go’... that is not the British conception of what this is - they see it as a negotiation between two equal parties”

[TightEnd]

Spain, Germany and France would block a single market for goods Brexit deal, says Spain’s foreign minister. “Fits with mood here,” Brussels source tells guardian

 Increasingly likely UK will face choice: free movement of people or the Brexit business is dreading

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/26/france-and-germany-will-block-mays-single-market-plan-says-spain

[TightEnd]

Preparations for post-Brexit Irish border in chaos with 'no one in charge', reveals Northern Ireland police chief

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-irish-border-northern-ireland-police-george-hamilton-eu-immigration-customs-a8418966.html