The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Sheriff Fatman]

My current prediction, and hoped for outcome, would be another hung Parliament with a reduced number of both Tory and Labour MP's in the mix, which will hopefully force us down the route of a 2nd Referendum to resolve Brexit.  People are going to try to put all sorts of interpretation on the outcome, which will be a crude exercise at best, and an election with BoJo and Corbyn as the two PM candidates is pretty much the worst-case scenario to resolve anything right now.

I was thinking about the outcome yesterday and trying to assign probabilities to likely outcomes, with a view to seeing how these change over the campaign.  It might be an interesting exercise for people to participate in on the thread, as a gauge to see how the campaign cuts through to people with different viewpoints.  This is my current guess, prior to any official campaigning.  Basically, all of these outcomes are shit, but 1 or 3 would be slightly less shit than either of 2 or 4, but this is a prediction of the likelihood of events, not a ranking of preferences.

I'd be intrigued to see other people's predictions, particularly from a perspective of how blinkered we are based on our views, and whether or not this changes over time during the campaigning.

1) Hung Parliament - Conservatives most seats - 50%
2) Tory Majority - 30%
3) Hung Parliament - Labour most seats - 20%
4) Labour Majority - 0%

[ripple11]

My current prediction, and hoped for outcome, would be another hung Parliament with a reduced number of both Tory and Labour MP's in the mix, which will hopefully force us down the route of a 2nd Referendum to resolve Brexit.  People are going to try to put all sorts of interpretation on the outcome, which will be a crude exercise at best, and an election with BoJo and Corbyn as the two PM candidates is pretty much the worst-case scenario to resolve anything right now.

I was thinking about the outcome yesterday and trying to assign probabilities to likely outcomes, with a view to seeing how these change over the campaign.  It might be an interesting exercise for people to participate in on the thread, as a gauge to see how the campaign cuts through to people with different viewpoints.  This is my current guess, prior to any official campaigning.  Basically, all of these outcomes are shit, but 1 or 3 would be slightly less shit than either of 2 or 4, but this is a prediction of the likelihood of events, not a ranking of preferences.

I'd be intrigued to see other people's predictions, particularly from a perspective of how blinkered we are based on our views, and whether or not this changes over time during the campaigning.

1) Hung Parliament - Conservatives most seats - 50%
2) Tory Majority - 30%
3) Hung Parliament - Labour most seats - 20%
4) Labour Majority - 0%

As we start the campaign I think it would be remarkable for Labour to get most seats.
However I think a Tory majority is less likely than the slightly odds on shot the bookies are offering.


I would go....

 Hung Parliament - Conservatives most seats - 70%
2) Tory Majority - 25%
3) Hung Parliament - Labour most seats - 5%
4) Labour Majority - 0%

[nirvana]

My current prediction, and hoped for outcome, would be another hung Parliament with a reduced number of both Tory and Labour MP's in the mix, which will hopefully force us down the route of a 2nd Referendum to resolve Brexit.  People are going to try to put all sorts of interpretation on the outcome, which will be a crude exercise at best, and an election with BoJo and Corbyn as the two PM candidates is pretty much the worst-case scenario to resolve anything right now.

I was thinking about the outcome yesterday and trying to assign probabilities to likely outcomes, with a view to seeing how these change over the campaign.  It might be an interesting exercise for people to participate in on the thread, as a gauge to see how the campaign cuts through to people with different viewpoints.  This is my current guess, prior to any official campaigning.  Basically, all of these outcomes are shit, but 1 or 3 would be slightly less shit than either of 2 or 4, but this is a prediction of the likelihood of events, not a ranking of preferences.

I'd be intrigued to see other people's predictions, particularly from a perspective of how blinkered we are based on our views, and whether or not this changes over time during the campaigning.

1) Hung Parliament - Conservatives most seats - 50%
2) Tory Majority - 30%
3) Hung Parliament - Labour most seats - 20%
4) Labour Majority - 0%

Since it's just for fun

Tory maj - 65%
Tory most seats - 35%

[aaron1867]

Twitter reporting political arrests at rallies

Brexit supporters: 247 (139 at Tommy Robinson rally, I suspect)

Remain supporters: 9

[bobAlike]

Surely a hung parliament will just be as bad for the country as the last couple of years have been with the non-majority Tory government. This country would surely just suffer more of the same arguments and delay and no-decision making.

[DaveShoelace]

Lib Dems 50 or more seats is the market I am looking for. Betfred have it so far, not seen it elsewhere

[nirvana]

Surely a hung parliament will just be as bad for the country as the last couple of years have been with the non-majority Tory government. This country would surely just suffer more of the same arguments and delay and no-decision making.

It would be more dither and delay - only wrote that so I could say what a poor attack line this is. At least use a phrase which includes dithering and delaying - sounds more musical

[bobAlike]

Surely a hung parliament will just be as bad for the country as the last couple of years have been with the non-majority Tory government. This country would surely just suffer more of the same arguments and delay and no-decision making.

It would be more dither and delay - only wrote that so I could say what a poor attack line this is. At least use a phrase which includes dithering and delaying - sounds more musical

Funnily enough I did include this phrase originally but thought better of it.

[Pokerpops]

Twitter reporting political arrests at rallies

Brexit supporters: 247 (139 at Tommy Robinson rally, I suspect)

Remain supporters: 9

Got any actual evidence to support this?

[Marky147]

Twitter reporting political arrests at rallies

Brexit supporters: 247 (139 at Tommy Robinson rally, I suspect)

Remain supporters: 9

Got any actual evidence to support this?

Roving reporter twitter.com/aaron1867

[aaron1867]

Twitter reporting political arrests at rallies

Brexit supporters: 247 (139 at Tommy Robinson rally, I suspect)

Remain supporters: 9

Got any actual evidence to support this?

If blonde was simple to post pics, I’d post the pictures and tweets

[TightEnd]

both are easy.

just copy a link to the tweet and post it on here

lets see if the source is neutral

[Longines]

Posting pics is simple.

Posting tweets is even easier - https://twitter.com/808sage/status/1188832423334662144

[arbboy]

It's very difficult to post bullshit though. 

[atdc21]

Although.........