The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Interesting

Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

(Fieldwork 17-28 Oct)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/01/how-will-eu-referendum-and-2017-voters-cast-their-

[Pokerpops]

Interesting

Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

(Fieldwork 17-28 Oct)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/01/how-will-eu-referendum-and-2017-voters-cast-their-

The tiny strand of pink indicating Remain Voters who now intend to vote for The Brexit Party deserves more love. Maybe even a Louis Theroux interview.

[nirvana]

I can't work out the logic of it

No parliament elected is going to accept no deal, even without a ot of the moderates who are standing down the majority of the Conservative MPs maybe leavers but they are not "no deal" advocates. a minority clearly are

by standing in every seat he takes a few percent off the tory vote. In some cases this will swing marginals

So by doing so he at best reduces the size of a Tory majority (and some of that majority won't support no deal) and at worst (for Brexit) produces a hung parliament

If we get another hung parliament Brexit actually happening is less likely, delays inevitable.

A compromise/pact would have given him a seat at the table, but instead once more there is no compromise that leads the risk of losing the ultimate prize?

Do you think it's comparable with remainers planning to vote LD - the best chance of avoiding Brexit is to vote Labour and take the chances on a decent campaign being run to remain.

Voting LD has never been a more wasted vote imo

[Doobs]

Interesting

Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

(Fieldwork 17-28 Oct)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/01/how-will-eu-referendum-and-2017-voters-cast-their-

The tiny strand of pink indicating Remain Voters who now intend to vote for The Brexit Party deserves more love. Maybe even a Louis Theroux interview.

Didn't Aaron say he was going to do just this at one stage?  Someone on my facebook claims to have voted remain and moonlights as propaganda chief for Farage.  Guess people change their minds both ways and not just make stuff up?

[Doobs]

I can't work out the logic of it

No parliament elected is going to accept no deal, even without a ot of the moderates who are standing down the majority of the Conservative MPs maybe leavers but they are not "no deal" advocates. a minority clearly are

by standing in every seat he takes a few percent off the tory vote. In some cases this will swing marginals

So by doing so he at best reduces the size of a Tory majority (and some of that majority won't support no deal) and at worst (for Brexit) produces a hung parliament

If we get another hung parliament Brexit actually happening is less likely, delays inevitable.

A compromise/pact would have given him a seat at the table, but instead once more there is no compromise that leads the risk of losing the ultimate prize?

Do you think it's comparable with remainers planning to vote LD - the best chance of avoiding Brexit is to vote Labour and take the chances on a decent campaign being run to remain.

Voting LD has never been a more wasted vote imo

Surely it depends on your constituency?   There are several Lib Dem/Conservative marginals about, and others where Corbyn's Labour won't ever get in, and others where the Lib Dems are the no-hopers. 

I am sure there are lots of places where it would be a "wasted vote", but in most consituencies that is true of all parties?  A lot of these constuencies with big majorities can become ones with small majorities over time, so is any vote truly wasted?   Maybe if you are somewhere with a 10k majority, then if all those who thought my vote is wasted rocked up, it may well be a natural 4k majority.  At the next election, many people wouldn't view it as a wasted vote anymore and get off their arses and vote, or demographics may swing it even closer?   

I do think this election is a bit different, because there are Tory seats that voted remain, and Labour seats that voted leave, so the swings should be amplified too?

[TightEnd]

I can't work out the logic of it

No parliament elected is going to accept no deal, even without a ot of the moderates who are standing down the majority of the Conservative MPs maybe leavers but they are not "no deal" advocates. a minority clearly are

by standing in every seat he takes a few percent off the tory vote. In some cases this will swing marginals

So by doing so he at best reduces the size of a Tory majority (and some of that majority won't support no deal) and at worst (for Brexit) produces a hung parliament

If we get another hung parliament Brexit actually happening is less likely, delays inevitable.

A compromise/pact would have given him a seat at the table, but instead once more there is no compromise that leads the risk of losing the ultimate prize?

Do you think it's comparable with remainers planning to vote LD - the best chance of avoiding Brexit is to vote Labour and take the chances on a decent campaign being run to remain.

Voting LD has never been a more wasted vote imo

I disagree

Vote Labour and Corbyn probably tries to deliver Brexit (his party may be remainers in the majority but the hard left aren't and they lead it) and you get Corbyn/McDonnell and Abbott for up to 5 years, even if you don't mind their policies (I do in some cases, don't in others)

What I do accept is that Swinson has to be less dogmatic too. She isn't going to lead the largest party, and if it is hung again and lets say she has 50 seats and the SNP have another 50  then both have to row in with the Tories, but thats unlikely with a more right wing version of that party or Corbyn, both of which have already ruled it out. That leads to more paralysis

All sides, three years into this mess, in refusing to compromise much still are doing their profession down imo and none acting in the national interest

[Doobs]

Just looking at my constituency.   

General Election was:
Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem.   
European Election was:
Brexit Party, Lib Dem, Conservatives, Green, Labour

Labour got less than a fifth of the votes of the Lib Dems in the European elections.

I have been reading that the tactical vote website is biassed as it suggests Lib Dems, but you wouldn't vote labour here, would you?

I am kind of hoping the Brexit Party comes along and does for the Tory vote.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I disagree

Vote Labour and Corbyn probably tries to deliver Brexit (his party may be remainers in the majority but the hard left aren't and they lead it) and you get Corbyn/McDonnell and Abbott for up to 5 years, even if you don't mind their policies (I do in some cases, don't in others)

What I do accept is that Swinson has to be less dogmatic too. She isn't going to lead the largest party, and if it is hung again and lets say she has 50 seats and the SNP have another 50  then both have to row in with the Tories, but thats unlikely with a more right wing version of that party or Corbyn, both of which have already ruled it out. That leads to more paralysis

All sides, three years into this mess, in refusing to compromise much still are doing their profession down imo and none acting in the national interest

It could be my particular Twitter bubble, but there are plenty of others who are drawing the line at considering Labour due to the antisemitism issues.  I have plenty of reasons for not wanting to vote for them but this has become the one at the top of my list.

Plenty seem able to overlook this, which is a shame, but I think its 99.9% certain that the EHRC investigation will find institutional antisemitism when it reports, which wouldn't be a good look for a newly elected government led by the person who has enabled it.

[TightEnd]

Interesting thread

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1190240697376526336?s=20

"here are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain)"

[TightEnd]

another from the best Brexit blog going

"looking at how Johnson's gamble has created a last chance for remainers (and Brexiters), with remainer single-mindedness and the stance of the BXP being crucial. Plus a plea to focus on Brexit!"

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-coming-election.html

[TightEnd]

Current voting intention for 2017 Conservatives:

71% Con
15% Brexit Party
10% Lib Dem

For 2017 Labour:

50% Lab
22% #LibDem
9% Conservative
9% #Brexit Party
7% Green

Labour vote much more split

Yougov 29-30 Oct

[TightEnd]

 Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s most senior adviser, is facing questions over his past activities in Russia after a whistleblower came forward to raise “serious concerns” about the 3 years Cummings spent there after graduating from Oxford. See the Sunday Times

Dominic Grieve, chair of cross-party intelligence and security committee (ISC), asks whether it is a nervous Cummings who is currently blocking the publication of ISC report into alleged Russian interference in 2016 Brexit referendum

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-asks-about-dominic-cummings-years-working-in-russia-vl6d0w62z


Mean while VoteLeave referred to the CPS over suggested spending breaches in the referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50276673

[TightEnd]

Buckle up, Britain, it will be a rocky and twisting road to polling day | Andrew Rawnsley

The range of plausible results is wide and the old blue-red swingometer is a near-useless instrument of prediction

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/03/buckle-up-britain-it-will-be-a-rocky-and-twisting-road-to-polling-day

[aaron1867]

Is it just me that has got really bored and fed up with Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems? They are literally playing the victim card at every opportunity. Today they'e moaned about being involved in TV debates, even calling it sexist.

I am all for these TV debates and I am completely happy with different formats with different parties being involved. We can't simply have a TV debate with 6/7/8 different parties everytime. I just can't bring myself to vote Lib Dem.

Jo Swinson = dreadful.

[Woodsey]

Is it just me that has got really bored and fed up with Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems? They are literally playing the victim card at every opportunity. Today they'e moaned about being involved in TV debates, even calling it sexist.

I am all for these TV debates and I am completely happy with different formats with different parties being involved. We can't simply have a TV debate with 6/7/8 different parties everytime. I just can't bring myself to vote Lib Dem.

Jo Swinson = dreadful.

I’m sure you have tickets for the debate the lib Dems will be included in