The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Doobs]

PM accused of cover-up over report on Russian meddling in UK politics
No 10 refuses to clear release of report into Russian political interference before election

complete passivity of the public to this,probably unaware

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/no-10-blocks-russia-eu-referendum-report-until-after-election?CMP=share_btn_tw

Five years for us all to forget it until the next election?  Though given a lot of people weren't interested in the previous that should have excluded Cummings from Downing Street then I am not sure why they don't just release it?  I mean can people think Cummings and Johnson are any more shady than they do now? 

I think Trump has shown you can reach a point where each additional piece of damning evidence doesn't make a jot of difference.

[Sheriff Fatman]

So. I've only recently been able to vote so I want to exercise my right, but I have no idea who to vote for.

I don't want to leave the EU.

I don't want BoJo or Corbyn as PM.

I don't want to abstain or vote for some other party if doing so will work as a tactical vote and inadvertently work against my wishes.

This is pretty much where I am on things.  In my constituency there's a chance that the Lib Dems could win back the seat from Labour, so a Lib Dem vote works for me here, with the fallback that I get a hardworking pro-Remain MP if not.

In another constituency, this option might not fulfil the requirements, so it's very specific to each seat as to what your best option is.

Labour activists are very much pushing the line that only voting for them will keep out BoJo, and enable a 2nd Ref.  Unfortunately, even if I believed that, my red line would be not to endorse an institutionally antisemitic party, which is what I believe the EHRC will conclude early next year.  Others are more easily able to overlook this, so aren't ruling out voting Labour, so it all depends on how you rank these considerations personally.  In this election in particular, one size doesn't fit all in any way.

Like you I don't want BoJo or Corbyn to be PM, but one of them will be under our electoral system.  Personally, I can't choose between them as to who would be worse, but there's no avoiding the outcome that one of them gets in.  If that bothers you as much as it does me, the best hope is to try and determine an outcome where both Labour and the Tories have fewer seats in another hung Parliament, and we maybe get the chance to do it all again in 6 months time with new faces at the helm (at the very least in Labour's case).

[aaron1867]

There's some absolute bloopers from MP's lately

Keir Starmer asked by Piers Morgan if he's a millionaire, says no, then confirms his house is worth over £1m.

Rees Mogg just said Grenfell victims lacked common sense

Dianne Abbott agreeing with closing private schools, but admit her kids went

Raab dreadful handling of the lad who was killed in car accident by US "diplomat"

Swinson shouting victim every day and accusing ITV of sexism

Mark Francois generally

I'm sure we can name more, not sure if Rees Mogg will stay in position?

[AdamM]

Does that necessarily make Keir Starmer a millionaire? presumably he has a mortgage/debts. Living in a house worth £1m+ and having a net worth of £1m+ isn't the same thing.

[Jon MW]

Does that necessarily make Keir Starmer a millionaire? presumably he has a mortgage/debts. Living in a house worth £1m+ and having a net worth of £1m+ isn't the same thing.

Kind of depends on your definition of a millionaire - but I would have thought most people would class it as anyone with assets over a million rather than net worth over a million.

[Doobs]

Does that necessarily make Keir Starmer a millionaire? presumably he has a mortgage/debts. Living in a house worth £1m+ and having a net worth of £1m+ isn't the same thing.

Kind of depends on your definition of a millionaire - but I would have thought most people would class it as anyone with assets over a million rather than net worth over a million.

Would most people iunclude their wife's assets too?  I am a net assets and divide marital assets person, but it seems a bit ambiguous.  I suspect he'd probably still get there with half a house in a nice area of London and pension arrangements.

[Jon MW]

Does that necessarily make Keir Starmer a millionaire? presumably he has a mortgage/debts. Living in a house worth £1m+ and having a net worth of £1m+ isn't the same thing.

Kind of depends on your definition of a millionaire - but I would have thought most people would class it as anyone with assets over a million rather than net worth over a million.

Would most people iunclude their wife's assets too?  I am a net assets and divide marital assets person, but it seems a bit ambiguous.  I suspect he'd probably still get there with half a house in a nice area of London and pension arrangements.

I think a more important question would be - why does anybody care?

A lot of people seem to implicitly or explicitly see wealth as some kind of character flaw.

Politicians on the left wouldn't have to think about hiding, or under stating, how rich they were if it were just seen as a neutral description of them rather than containing the baggage that some people seem to attach to it.

[Doobs]

Does that necessarily make Keir Starmer a millionaire? presumably he has a mortgage/debts. Living in a house worth £1m+ and having a net worth of £1m+ isn't the same thing.

Kind of depends on your definition of a millionaire - but I would have thought most people would class it as anyone with assets over a million rather than net worth over a million.

Would most people iunclude their wife's assets too?  I am a net assets and divide marital assets person, but it seems a bit ambiguous.  I suspect he'd probably still get there with half a house in a nice area of London and pension arrangements.

I think a more important question would be - why does anybody care?

A lot of people seem to implicitly or explicitly see wealth as some kind of character flaw.

Politicians on the left wouldn't have to think about hiding, or under stating, how rich they were if it were just seen as a neutral description of them rather than containing the baggage that some people seem to attach to it.

Yep, I am sure Mr Corbyn has said a couple of times he isn't rich, when he clearly is on any resonable definition. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/jeremy-corbyn-says-not-wealthy-despite-130k-salary-labour-scotland-out-of-touch-a7212811.html

I think he has stopped claiming he isn't rich these days now the PR people have got to him. 

[RED-DOG]

So. I've only recently been able to vote so I want to exercise my right, but I have no idea who to vote for.

I don't want to leave the EU.

I don't want BoJo or Corbyn as PM.

I don't want to abstain or vote for some other party if doing so will work as a tactical vote and inadvertently work against my wishes.

What is your postcode Tom? If you don't mind me asking? You need to have a look at the likely voting in your area.

But to be fair, your combination of desires is probably impossible to satisfy.

I won't put my postcode but I fall under South Leicestershire Stu.

[StuartHopkin]

So. I've only recently been able to vote so I want to exercise my right, but I have no idea who to vote for.

I don't want to leave the EU.

I don't want BoJo or Corbyn as PM.

I don't want to abstain or vote for some other party if doing so will work as a tactical vote and inadvertently work against my wishes.

What is your postcode Tom? If you don't mind me asking? You need to have a look at the likely voting in your area.

But to be fair, your combination of desires is probably impossible to satisfy.

I won't put my postcode but I fall under South Leicestershire Stu.

No probs.

I'm by no means an expert but looking on electoralcalculus.co.uk I would suggest it doesnt really matter who you vote for as it has a huge Tory majority.

Click to see full-size image.

And that runs through nearly each and every ward.

Click to see full-size image.

That isnt to say that you shouldnt vote, I think everyone should vote.

Lib Dems seem most aligned with your points so I would suggest you vote for them, but ultimately, due to how it works, it is unlikely to make a difference to this election.

Long term maybe it will?

 

[mulhuzz]

yeah seems like it's a Tory lock.

You basically have a choice between Labour and Lib Dems if you hope that Brexit Party steals a bunch of points from Conservatives.

Lib Dems are probably more aligned (Remain + not Corbyn) but Labour had 8x as many votes in 2017 than Lib Dem.

So it's a flip. Vote based on your principles imo because I don't think you live in a constituency where tactical voting is likely to make a difference.

edit:
based on 2017 if the swing away from UKIP (vs 2015) goes back to Brexit Party, and Conservatives lose more to pro-remain Libs then maybe it might be close enough to vote for LDs...

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

The EU elections were heavily Brexit Party, so if they stand it could easily split the Conservative vote.

https://www.harborough.gov.uk/directory_record/3494/european_parliamentary_elections_23_may_2019

The Labour Party reached their nadir in the 2019 EU elections and the Lib Dems in the 2017 General Election.  Who knows where it goes from there.  I suspect they'll split the remain vote, and Brexit Party may even be 2nd..

[nirvana]

Even though it's not obvious that the Tories are running much of a decent campaign at the moment I believe they will eventually cut through with a limited number of simple messages when people stop resigning, apologising and being booted out.

I feel the Brexit party vote will fall away to a fairly large degree as Farage is sounding ever more swivel eyed - 'this isn't Brexit' is unikely to cut through with very many people imo.

LDs probably attract more of the marching Waitrosians (former Labour and Tory voters) than Farage attracts of jackbooted brexiters.

Can't see anything other than a 50 seat Tory Majority however well Labour continues to campaign with strong NHS and socially oriented messages

[horseplayer]

Geoff Norcott
@GeoffNorcott
·
22m
Fair play to the Tories.
Everyone said they couldn't have a worse campaign than 2017.
They are currently proving the doubters wrong.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Even though it's not obvious that the Tories are running much of a decent campaign at the moment I believe they will eventually cut through with a limited number of simple messages when people stop resigning, apologising and being booted out.

I feel the Brexit party vote will fall away to a fairly large degree as Farage is sounding ever more swivel eyed - 'this isn't Brexit' is unikely to cut through with very many people imo.

LDs probably attract more of the marching Waitrosians (former Labour and Tory voters) than Farage attracts of jackbooted brexiters.

Can't see anything other than a 50 seat Tory Majority however well Labour continues to campaign with strong NHS and socially oriented messages

The prediction is similar to that which many expected last time around, but I'm struggling to see where they will make the gains to achieve this.  Polling and vote share leads are one thing, but the distribution of those votes are important under our voting system.

From the current starting point, the Tories are likely to lose the seats they picked up in Scotland in 2017 to the SNP/Lib Dems.  They will probably also have more seat losses than Labour arising from the expected Lib Dem gains.  There's a very big question mark on how many seats the Lib Dems will gain, but I don't think any reasonably expects them to stand still or get fewer seats.

That pretty much boils down the election to the Tory/Labour marginals and it's hard to see how either of them currently make the gains they need here to secure a majority.  For me personally, this is the one crumb of comfort I'm clinging on to with regard to the election taking place.

For the Tories to achieve it, they need to eliminate the Brexit Party threat to their vote share and get people to buy-in to their campaign of 'Get Brexit Done' which seems too divisive a message in a country which is pretty much 50:50 split on Brexit.  Yes, they have more effective campaigners than the 2017 Maybot campaign, but if we see too many of the Rees-Mogg, Bridgen, Cleverly type interventions, then the whole 'nasty party' image starts to cut through.

For Labour, they are very much attacking the Lib Dems currently and it was very obvious yesterday that there had been a co-ordinated "Vote Lib Dem, get Tories" social media campaign.  Their success relies on getting enough Remain votes from their 'neutral on Brexit' strategy, and avoiding any 'Toxic Corbyn' collateral damage.  Weirdly, their most effective campaigning tool may well be jumping on the Tory mis-steps, than it will be on getting their own arguments to resonate with the non-converted.

Things may change, but right now, I'm struggling to see how either of them achieve a majority.  The only thing I can predict with a reasonable degree of confidence is that the new Parliament will have more SNP and Lib Dem MP's than before.