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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2167978 times)
Marky_Crash
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« Reply #3645 on: June 25, 2016, 07:22:13 PM »



I find Nicola Sturgeon has pounced on this turn of events to put her agenda back on the table.

it was clearly in her party's manifesto in the May elections, so hardly unexpected, in fact, the complete opposite.

The longer she leaves it the clearer the picture, the more variables the Scottish people have to work with. Calling for it on Day 1 is a different matter. Let's get the vote through while we're in a haze of confusion. I would expect a good leader to put leadership first.

wat?

It was in her manifesto, The UK as a whole voted to exit, Scotland didn't, where is the "haze of confusion"?



Lol wat? There wasn't a question about 'Scotland' in this referendum.

In fact if we analyse the data regarding the UK question put to the UK people we find there were MORE Scottish people who voted OUT or didn't vote at all than those who voted remain.

Yet in this new democracy that translates to Scotland voted to remain...even though that wasn't the question...and 33% chose not to answer the actual question. But meh let's just say Scotland voted to remain in the UK as an independent country. Democracy has been rinsed throughout this campaign and even more so now the result is in.

I know you are prob just trolling as usual but I'll say it again:

In the Scottish elections in May, the SNP said in their manifesto that if Scotland significantly voted to stay in the EU and the rUK voted out, they would ask for a second independence referendum.  I really don't see what you don't understand - she has to stand by the manifesto and has absolutely no choice other than raise the issue of another referendum.



Quick questions. Even though it is in the SNP manifesto, Scotland are still part of the UK. I guess the UK has no obligation to offer another referendum, even if Jimmy Krankie screams from the rooftops? Especially as the last vote was so recent?

Yes def agree with that.  My only point is that it is completely reasonable for Sturgeon to make the SNP intentions quite clear  (in accordance with SNP election pledges).



Its going to be fascinating.

You would think that the new PM will have bigger fish to fry than trying to appease her or the SNP. Nothing to lose for the Government (given the historic strength of SNP and lack of any loss of votes/seats for the Tories) for them to say you have had your referendum, your people voted to stay in UK, we aint offering you a new referendum. Tough. Come back in 15 years.

As someone who wants Scottish Independence I sincerely hope that Westminster takes that exact stance. It would be one of the quickest ways to transfer supporters from 'No' to 'Yes' IMO. Cameron et al dangled the threat of Scotland ending up outside the EU if they voted for independence and rammed this point home for months. They saw this as such an important issue that they continually underlined the risk of being outside the EU if we voted 'Yes'. When it turns out they were talking complete cobblers how could you possibly argue against it being reasonable for there being another Scottish vote? If the EU exit vote had taken place before the Scottish referendum there would only have been one result.

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RED-DOG
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« Reply #3646 on: June 25, 2016, 07:24:04 PM »

If there were to be a 'Second bite of the cherry' referendum tomorrow, what do you think the result would be, and by what margin?
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teddybloat
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« Reply #3647 on: June 25, 2016, 07:29:52 PM »

Let's say Lammy et  al stall on leaving as the vote was too close to mandate such change.

Let's say Scotland leave the UK.

England and Wales are now overhelmjngly pro brexit.

If a snap referendum was held tomorrow I imagjne violence would ensue. The result would stillt be close. Would scots in favour of leaving the UK now vote brexit to force a second referendum on independence?
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 07:31:36 PM by teddybloat » Logged
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« Reply #3648 on: June 25, 2016, 07:31:02 PM »

I'd guess the turnout would be a lot higher and Remain would then win.

If the same group of people voted again, Remain would just about shade it perhaps? 500k swing needed, maybe not.
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arbboy
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« Reply #3649 on: June 25, 2016, 07:32:00 PM »

How was it too close?  Over 1million more people voted leave than remain.  4% more voted to leave than remain.  How big does the gap have to be to be considered significant? 
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TightEnd
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« Reply #3650 on: June 25, 2016, 07:32:26 PM »

If there were to be a 'Second bite of the cherry' referendum tomorrow, what do you think the result would be, and by what margin?
remain by about 55-45. Young would turn out, no complacency and a few scared changed minds.....I don't think it should happen by the way
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DaveShoelace
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« Reply #3651 on: June 25, 2016, 07:33:12 PM »

If there were to be a 'Second bite of the cherry' referendum tomorrow, what do you think the result would be, and by what margin?

Tomorrow? Probably would be to remain, as everyone is in shock at the immediate short term impact on the pound etc.

if it was, say, a month from now or longer, I would hope and think that it would be a stronger victory for leave, not because leave is better, but I would hope the country recognised that democracy, that many before us have died for, is much more important, and the implications of a vocal minority bullying their way to a second referendum are much more worrying than the uncertainty we now face.

I voted remain, I'd prefer Brexit not to happen, but I would vote for leave because I believe in democracy.

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Marky_Crash
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« Reply #3652 on: June 25, 2016, 07:36:43 PM »

Let's say Lammy et  al stall on leaving as the vote was too close to mandate such change.

Let's say Scotland leave the UK.

England and Wales are now overhelmjngly pro brexit.

If a snap referendum was held tomorrow I imagjne violence would ensue. The result would stillt be close. Would scots in favour of leaving the UK now vote brexit to force a second referendum on independence?


I suspect some would, I personally would not. I seen the second referendum on Scottish independence arising in these circumstances but I still did not vote leave. While I want Scottish independence I wouldn't shaft the rest of the UK to get it.
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redsimon
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« Reply #3653 on: June 25, 2016, 07:39:30 PM »

There won't be a second eu referendum surely?

I voted remain, but we lost , should get on with negotiations,  presumably when new leader elected?

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arbboy
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« Reply #3654 on: June 25, 2016, 07:40:25 PM »

Scots having a 2nd ref now is totally acceptable.  Something hugely significant and material has changed for the country since the last vote.   If the Scots knew at the first ref they wouldn't be in the EU they would have left the UK quite clearly given how they voted this week.  The fact this huge issue has changed means they should get another vote asap imo.

Nothing has changed in the last 2 days to mean leave ref should be not adhered to.  Why is this even being discussed?  It wasn't even a close result over a sample of 30m votes.  Realistically it was never going to be outside of 55-45 either way over 30m votes so this is a relatively resounding result and not remotely close.
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teddybloat
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« Reply #3655 on: June 25, 2016, 07:42:07 PM »

How was it too close?  Over 1million more people voted leave than remain.  4% more voted to leave than remain.  How big does the gap have to be to be considered significant? 

The vote has to be > 50 remain to be statistically significant for the establishment.

Anything else is simply advisory and too close to be actionable, innit
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taximan007
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« Reply #3656 on: June 25, 2016, 07:47:47 PM »

Why can't the Remain voters just accept the result?

IF they had won Cameron would have been gloating about how fantastic he had been (I am a Comservative voter) and there would been none of this talk of 2nd referendum.

Accept the fact and do what Britain does best, unite and get on with it and show what a GREAT country we are.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #3657 on: June 25, 2016, 07:57:38 PM »

Why can't the Remain voters just accept the result?
T
IF they had won Cameron would have been gloating about how fantastic he had been (I am a Comservative voter) and there would been none of this talk of 2nd referendum.

Accept the fact and do what Britain does best, unite and get on with it and show what a GREAT country we are.
I do personally. The petitition is over 2m now. A Amor beef appears to be the farage nhs u turn and the hannan "immigration isn't going to fall" newsnight appearance so the argument goes the vote was taken on the basis of a fraudulent campaign
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JohnCharver
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« Reply #3658 on: June 25, 2016, 08:00:39 PM »

Why can't the Remain voters just accept the result?
T
IF they had won Cameron would have been gloating about how fantastic he had been (I am a Comservative voter) and there would been none of this talk of 2nd referendum.

Accept the fact and do what Britain does best, unite and get on with it and show what a GREAT country we are.
I do personally. The petitition is over 2m now. A Amor beef appears to be the farage nhs u turn and the hannan "immigration isn't going to fall" newsnight appearance so the argument goes the vote was taken on the basis of a fraudulent campaign

Whens osbornes emergency budget?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #3659 on: June 25, 2016, 08:03:02 PM »

Why can't the Remain voters just accept the result?
T
IF they had won Cameron would have been gloating about how fantastic he had been (I am a Comservative voter) and there would been none of this talk of 2nd referendum.

Accept the fact and do what Britain does best, unite and get on with it and show what a GREAT country we are.
I do personally. The petitition is over 2m now. A Amor beef appears to be the farage nhs u turn and the hannan "immigration isn't going to fall" newsnight appearance so the argument goes the vote was taken on the basis of a fraudulent campaign

Whens osbornes emergency budget?
well that was floated and quite clearly a non runner. Pretty terrible idea to suggest it, people didn't care about the economics and hated the implied threat.
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