The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[The Camel]

I appreciate a lot of remain guys here who are reasonably shrewd are talking through their wallets right now with some of their statements. My question to them is this: if we fully leave the EU now as we have voted for as a nation what price the UK is better off or worse off as a country in 2030?   Not just financially but across the board as a standard of living index. There is no point looking at this in the short term,  we all know short term we are worse off just like you are when you quit work to set up your own business. The first two years are tough.  This is exactly the same.  By 2030 are we better off all round as a nation or worse off. How likely is each one camel? Kusk? Tighty? Any one else is obviously welcome to get involved as well.

Assuming right wing parties stay in control... (a pretty safe bet, the only question is exactly how right wing they are)

Some people will do very very well out of leaving Europe.

Small business owners who want to trade outside the EU will undoubtedly prosper.

If, as expected, labour laws get relaxed, this will also be good be for businesses with no scruples about exploiting their workforce.

Big businesses who trade mostly with the EU will suffer, although I would expect most to move production and headquaters away from the UK.

And of course the people who suffer the most will be the low waged. Rights eroded, minimum wage, tax credits, maternity and paternity benefits slashed. Inward investment to deprived areas will be a distant memory.

Money saved from membership of the EU will probably be used for tax cuts. So the rich will be fine of course.

[arbboy]

The next 3+ years are going to be very rocky. I strongly believe that there will be a recession and advise people to consider fixing their mortgages for as long as possible as inflation and interest rates will start to rise. My brother recently bought a flat and he is stretched to repay the current mortgage, I have told him to prepare for a worst-case scenario of interest rates rising to 15%. It happened in the 80s and it could happen again.

For anyone worried about job security, now is a good time to take out some 0% no-fee balance transfer credit cards. This is effectively an APR-free two-year loan which you can squirrel away in a cash ISA and withdraw in two years to repay the card before the interest-free period ends. If your mortgage needs to be renewed within this 2 years be careful because they may not look fondly on this large amount sitting on a credit card.

Aren't they more likely to cut the interest rate if we go into recession?

Raising the interest rates would be to curb inflation - imported goods might push inflation up a bit, but wouldn't have thought it would be enough to outweigh the need to get people spending (?)

You think the banks and credit card firms are not already pricing this into their products?   It is built into the price generally,  it like saying lets back Leicester to win the epl next year. Yes fine but they are 20/1 now not 5000/1 like last year.

[Doobs]

I appreciate a lot of remain guys here who are reasonably shrewd are talking through their wallets right now with some of their statements. My question to them is this: if we fully leave the EU now as we have voted for as a nation what price the UK is better off or worse off as a country in 2030?   Not just financially but across the board as a standard of living index. There is no point looking at this in the short term,  we all know short term we are worse off just like you are when you quit work to set up your own business. The first two years are tough.  This is exactly the same.  By 2030 are we better off all round as a nation or worse off. How likely is each one camel? Kusk? Tighty? Any one else is obviously welcome to get involved as well.

I went for a job interview a few weeks ago and was asked to prepare a presentation on the implications of Brexit for a similar company.   I did think about it pretty hard and think all the downside is short term.  Long term we aren't ever going to know, but my view is that it is only ever going to be a few percent on GDP either way.  That sort of thing you won't ever be able to notice above normal variance over 10 or 20 years.  I wouldn't have any idea which would be ahead and don't think anyone could be sure.

Despite this I do think voting for short term huge disruption and a likely recession is a really bad idea.  5 years from now, we are likely living in a fairly stable western democracy.  Hopefully we have a credible left leaning opposition to the Tories for most of that 5 years.

[BigAdz]

Labour have been finished as a serious party for ages now.  As soon as they lost the Scottish vote they were done.  The tories should never have got a majority in the last GE but were gifted it by Labour.  The fact Labour will now lose a monster chunk of votes in their English heartlands and will never be able to win the key swing seats in middle England (maybe not even finish 2nd now in most of these seats never mind win them).

I don't understand why people think leaving the EU is so bad since we voted for it.  Everything we were warned would happen financially short term has happened so far.  There are no surprises.  There will always be short term pain financially just like setting up a new business you don't turn a profit in the first year.  This is no different.

Why wouldn't a Boris or Gove risk their political life/image going for it and making it work?  There is no reason why in 10-20 years this could be looked back on as a great decision by the UK voters to leave the EU when we did (being ahead of the game so to speak) in a results orientated manner if and when the EU collapses.

Strange times indeed. Me about to agree again with Arbtwat.

I have been out all day and just read the last 15 pages, and I see plenty congratulating Tighty on unbiased comments. I have felt the last 15 pages( I have yet to read the remaining pages)have been one way Remainsville, and I have seen nothing pro Brexit, or the perceived positives, whether you agree or not. All I see is a whole bunch of people with broadly the same opinion broadly agreeing.

I spent a lot of time with my old man earlier who spoke great sense and pretty much had me thinking we should stay, but, again, I am reminded by Arb that there are still good reasons for giving this at least a chance.

[rfgqqabc]

I appreciate a lot of remain guys here who are reasonably shrewd are talking through their wallets right now with some of their statements. My question to them is this: if we fully leave the EU now as we have voted for as a nation what price the UK is better off or worse off as a country in 2030?   Not just financially but across the board as a standard of living index. There is no point looking at this in the short term,  we all know short term we are worse off just like you are when you quit work to set up your own business. The first two years are tough.  This is exactly the same.  By 2030 are we better off all round as a nation or worse off. How likely is each one camel? Kusk? Tighty? Any one else is obviously welcome to get involved as well.

Assuming right wing parties stay in control... (a pretty safe bet, the only question is exactly how right wing they are)

Some people will do very very well out of leaving Europe.

Small business owners who want to trade outside the EU will undoubtedly prosper.

If, as expected, labour laws get relaxed, this will also be good be for businesses with no scruples about exploiting their workforce.

Big businesses who trade mostly with the EU will suffer, although I would expect most to move production and headquaters away from the UK.

And of course the people who suffer the most will be the low waged. Rights eroded, minimum wage, tax credits, maternity and paternity benefits slashed. Inward investment to deprived areas will be a distant memory.

Money saved from membership of the EU will probably be used for tax cuts. So the rich will be fine of course.

I'd like to echo this. I also think there is a significantly greater probability of a doomsday esque scenario and that has probably increased a lot (to a very low percentage admittedly). We are welcoming significantly greater costs at a time when we need to run a budget surplus and furthermore face uncertainty which may last years. This could have a significant impact in a globalised economy. Would you want to face 5 years of low foreign investment whilst we sort out the requisite trade deals and the like? We may come out of it better overall but I think we picked a particularly poor time to attempt it (imo)

Interesting article on opinion polling methods.

http://qz.com/717016/one-form-of-polling-was-dead-accurate-on-brexit-and-its-changing-how-we-predict-elections/

[JohnCharver]

How big a racism problem are we facing atm, know ppl like to make up stories at times like these or choose to be offended, but know of a couple of incidents I cant really imagine happening very often personally if not brexit related and there seems to be alot of reports about atm. How many people out there really believe we havent just chose to leave, we have chose to deport? Seems brexit has made people change what its acceptable to say/ feel confident to express their real view?

[The Camel]

It's little wonder they Leave people have been quick to try and erase the myth they are going to cut immigration.

They are fierce libertarians.

If a businessman can get a Romanian or a Lithuanian to do a job for £1 per hour, which a Brit wouldn't touch for less than a tenner an hour, then of course they think the foreigner should be allowed to do the job.

If that means mass unemployment for Brits, tough shit, they need to learn the free market rules.

And don't expect the welfare state to help you out you workshy git, there will be none of that in Project Freedom.

[nirvana]

It's little wonder they Leave people have been quick to try and erase the myth they are going to cut immigration.

They are fierce libertarians.

If a businessman can get a Romanian or a Lithuanian to do a job for £1 per hour, which a Brit wouldn't touch for less than a tenner an hour, then of course they think the foreigner should be allowed to do the job.

If that means mass unemployment for Brits, tough shit, they need to learn the free market rules.

And don't expect the welfare state to help you out you workshy git, there will be none of that in Project Freedom.

Some of this is true - but it has absolutely nothing to do with leave or remain

[redsimon]

I appreciate a lot of remain guys here who are reasonably shrewd are talking through their wallets right now with some of their statements. My question to them is this: if we fully leave the EU now as we have voted for as a nation what price the UK is better off or worse off as a country in 2030?   Not just financially but across the board as a standard of living index. There is no point looking at this in the short term,  we all know short term we are worse off just like you are when you quit work to set up your own business. The first two years are tough.  This is exactly the same.  By 2030 are we better off all round as a nation or worse off. How likely is each one camel? Kusk? Tighty? Any one else is obviously welcome to get involved as well.

If I knew what the country would be like in 14 years time I wouldn't be posting on a poker fur um

As a remain voter I am genuinely surprised by how it's panning out re article 50 etc, pretty sure it will be invoked though before October and then the 'fun' will really start.

[The Camel]

It's little wonder they Leave people have been quick to try and erase the myth they are going to cut immigration.

They are fierce libertarians.

If a businessman can get a Romanian or a Lithuanian to do a job for £1 per hour, which a Brit wouldn't touch for less than a tenner an hour, then of course they think the foreigner should be allowed to do the job.

If that means mass unemployment for Brits, tough shit, they need to learn the free market rules.

And don't expect the welfare state to help you out you workshy git, there will be none of that in Project Freedom.

Some of this is true - but it has absolutely nothing to do with leave or remain

They've worn the coat of "leave" because they believe in free trade and absence of regulations.

But that wasn't the full extent of their ambitions.

They are revealing their true colours now the power grab is on.

[BigAdz]

How big a racism problem are we facing atm, know ppl like to make up stories at times like these or choose to be offended, but know of a couple of incidents I cant really imagine happening very often personally if not brexit related and there seems to be alot of reports about atm. How many people out there really believe we havent just chose to leave, we have chose to deport? Seems brexit has made people change what its acceptable to say/ feel confident to express their real view?

My wife is a Sister at a large Middle England Hospital and she informs me that many of the nurses, most of whom are foreign are worried about their jobs. I asked why they are here in the first place? She told me that the Spanish and Portuguese and Italians are here because work conditions are so much better. At home they work 5 /6 days weeks/12 hour shifts/no holiday pay. Better pay over here etc.

I asked why so few UK nurses. Oh there are plenty out there, but all work for agencies, and the rates are so much better.

I suspect there are many like me that are concerned about the numbers coming in, its not about racism, certainly for me, but whilst we don't manage things correctly and make our conditions so much more favourable than other EU countries, what do we expect, especially if our home grown can pick and choose.

[arbboy]

I am sitting in my local curry house and spoke to every member of staff tonight about how they voted.  All UK lifers but Asian origin obviously.  They had no idea how I would vote but based on the stat normals of my make up (degree/high earner etc etc) they would assume I was a remain type.  Every one of these UK asians voted leave without exception.  I asked why.  Simple answer from them all.  We can't recruit a highly skilled chef from where we want to with skills we need without big work permit hassles but we can get twenty worthless Eastern European waiters with no such hassles.  What difference does it make to our business whether immigrants come from Eastern Europe or Asia?  The racist angle is comical in this debate.  They said virtually all their friends in the trade in the West Midlands voted the same way.  The EU really isn't the big deal economically people keep making out anymore.  With the UK leaving its relative power falls even more and we could be the trigger to it totally collapsing longer term.  

[Woodsey]

I appreciate a lot of remain guys here who are reasonably shrewd are talking through their wallets right now with some of their statements. My question to them is this: if we fully leave the EU now as we have voted for as a nation what price the UK is better off or worse off as a country in 2030?   Not just financially but across the board as a standard of living index. There is no point looking at this in the short term,  we all know short term we are worse off just like you are when you quit work to set up your own business. The first two years are tough.  This is exactly the same.  By 2030 are we better off all round as a nation or worse off. How likely is each one camel? Kusk?

Interesting question.  As someone who was made redundant earlier this year and who works in financial services this vote is potentially terminal for my current career at my level of seniority if there is a widespread recruitment freeze.  I may need a career change.  Nonetheless I can envisage a scenario where this is a big positive for the UK even if I will need to adapt.  The thing that has really frightened me is having won the vote the Exit camp literally have no plan going forward.  It's like they didn't expect to win and I don't think that bodes well for the future and think we might have many years of foregone growth which we can't get back.  

I'll go 1/2 we are worse off as a nation by 2030 than if we had remained?  The key thing for me is I don't think we have credible people in Government to lead us forward.  They are running round like headless chickens and that is reflected in my price.

Be a shrink for remain crybabies, youll clean up

 

[RED-DOG]

Is there a finite period for implementing A50?

[DaveShoelace]

Is there a finite period for implementing A50?

If so then maybe the +EV move is to get Lord Chilcott to preside over it.