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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180556 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #7650 on: March 30, 2017, 10:57:25 AM »

for the hard core readers

READ IN FULL: Theresa May's letter triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty http://bit.ly/2nzApAS
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« Reply #7651 on: March 30, 2017, 10:57:43 AM »

At a time when the Labour Party is imploding and more moderate Labour votes will be looking for a home, you would expect the Lib Dems to be picking up significant support. After all, where else could this group of voters go?

I watched Tim Farron last night and saw why that's not going to happen.

Don't think he could answer the question when it was put to him that his call for another referendum at the end of negotiations would mean the EU would just be incentivised to give us a poor deal.

Bit of a joke.
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« Reply #7652 on: March 30, 2017, 10:58:19 AM »

useful

" We Annotated Theresa May’s Article 50 Letter To Explain What She Really Means

What the prime minister's letter triggering Brexit tells us about how we're going to leave the EU. "

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/theresa-mays-article-50-letter-annotated?utm_term=.txZR7waqn#.vxj5JE78m
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« Reply #7653 on: March 30, 2017, 10:59:43 AM »

i thought this was interesting.social media v the real world

 Click to see full-size image.


Twitter users: CON 30 LAB 39 LD 7 UKIP 10 GRN 8 All likely voters: CON 41 LAB 28 LD 7 UKIP 12 GRN 6
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« Reply #7654 on: March 30, 2017, 11:02:36 AM »

At a time when the Labour Party is imploding and more moderate Labour votes will be looking for a home, you would expect the Lib Dems to be picking up significant support. After all, where else could this group of voters go?

I watched Tim Farron last night and saw why that's not going to happen.

Don't think he could answer the question when it was put to him that his call for another referendum at the end of negotiations would mean the EU would just be incentivised to give us a poor deal.

Bit of a joke.


oh i completely disagree (well almost completely, farron clearly isn't a clegg)

LD membership is through the roof (87000 now), local results showing a lot of gains

think the next few years are very interesting for them especially if a) no brexit deal and b) corbyn stays to 2020

(full disclosure, i joined the lib dems a few months ago, natural home for a "leftish/wet" conservative remainer)
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« Reply #7655 on: March 30, 2017, 11:03:15 AM »

May has got the tone right: The more constructive the UK is in these talks, the more likely it is the EU will be too

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/theresa-mays-article-50-letter-strikes-right-tone/
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« Reply #7656 on: March 30, 2017, 11:03:52 AM »

Tough EU plan for Brexit negotiations laid bare in leaked document http://bit.ly/2oagb2f
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« Reply #7657 on: March 30, 2017, 11:06:10 AM »

these are interesting

overall attitudes to leaving may not have changed but economic pessimism has risen



"Project Fear may not have worked but Project Reality is catching on. Now *every* age group thinks Brexit will hurt our future"



source of graphs https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c36c1ddf4ece4b8a858d741f1df5174d
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« Reply #7658 on: March 30, 2017, 11:06:46 AM »

NYT view

What happens next for "Brexit"? http://nyti.ms/2nA4Qah
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« Reply #7659 on: March 30, 2017, 11:07:23 AM »

more on this one

The Brexit select committee walkout is an ominous sign of things to come

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/brexit-select-committee-walkout-ominous-sign-things-come
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« Reply #7660 on: March 30, 2017, 11:08:13 AM »

another "reading between the lines" piece

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39438982
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« Reply #7661 on: March 30, 2017, 11:10:22 AM »

Article 50 letter: pain and puzzlement among European newspapers

From Le Monde to El País, EU papers predict difficult talks ahead, especially if Britain resorts to security ‘blackmail’

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/30/article-50-letter-pain-and-puzzlement-among-european-newspapers?CMP=twt_gu
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« Reply #7662 on: March 30, 2017, 11:24:25 AM »

At a time when the Labour Party is imploding and more moderate Labour votes will be looking for a home, you would expect the Lib Dems to be picking up significant support. After all, where else could this group of voters go?

I watched Tim Farron last night and saw why that's not going to happen.

Don't think he could answer the question when it was put to him that his call for another referendum at the end of negotiations would mean the EU would just be incentivised to give us a poor deal.

Bit of a joke.


oh i completely disagree (well almost completely, farron clearly isn't a clegg)

LD membership is through the roof (87000 now), local results showing a lot of gains

think the next few years are very interesting for them especially if a) no brexit deal and b) corbyn stays to 2020

(full disclosure, i joined the lib dems a few months ago, natural home for a "leftish/wet" conservative remainer)

In the 2015 General Election, the Lib Dems polled 7.9% of the vote.

Here is the latest polling you posted in last couple of days :


GfK:

CON 41
LAB 28
LD 7
UKIP 12
GRN 6
SNP 5

1st-15th March
N=1,938

Even taking UK Polling Report stats, you see Lib Dems flat lining at around 10%.

Hardly a big upswing in national support, when you would expect the combination of Labour imploding and pro-EU voters should be flocking to them.
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« Reply #7663 on: March 30, 2017, 11:26:39 AM »

At a time when the Labour Party is imploding and more moderate Labour votes will be looking for a home, you would expect the Lib Dems to be picking up significant support. After all, where else could this group of voters go?

I watched Tim Farron last night and saw why that's not going to happen.

Don't think he could answer the question when it was put to him that his call for another referendum at the end of negotiations would mean the EU would just be incentivised to give us a poor deal.

Bit of a joke.


oh i completely disagree (well almost completely, farron clearly isn't a clegg)

LD membership is through the roof (87000 now), local results showing a lot of gains

think the next few years are very interesting for them especially if a) no brexit deal and b) corbyn stays to 2020

(full disclosure, i joined the lib dems a few months ago, natural home for a "leftish/wet" conservative remainer)

In the 2015 General Election, the Lib Dems polled 7.9% of the vote.

Here is the latest polling you posted in last couple of days :


GfK:

CON 41
LAB 28
LD 7
UKIP 12
GRN 6
SNP 5

1st-15th March
N=1,938

Even taking UK Polling Report stats, you see Lib Dems flat lining at around 10%.

Hardly a big upswing in national support, when you would expect the combination of Labour imploding and pro-EU voters should be flocking to them.


yes we have discussed this before on here. the national polling: dial barely moving. local elections: big gains since Brexit (and in 4 out of 5 by elections for westminster reasonable increases in vote shares)

no easy answer from me,i have to say!



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« Reply #7664 on: March 30, 2017, 11:28:15 AM »

At a time when the Labour Party is imploding and more moderate Labour votes will be looking for a home, you would expect the Lib Dems to be picking up significant support. After all, where else could this group of voters go?

I watched Tim Farron last night and saw why that's not going to happen.

Don't think he could answer the question when it was put to him that his call for another referendum at the end of negotiations would mean the EU would just be incentivised to give us a poor deal.

Bit of a joke.


oh i completely disagree (well almost completely, farron clearly isn't a clegg)

LD membership is through the roof (87000 now), local results showing a lot of gains

think the next few years are very interesting for them especially if a) no brexit deal and b) corbyn stays to 2020

(full disclosure, i joined the lib dems a few months ago, natural home for a "leftish/wet" conservative remainer)

In the 2015 General Election, the Lib Dems polled 7.9% of the vote.

Here is the latest polling you posted in last couple of days :


GfK:

CON 41
LAB 28
LD 7
UKIP 12
GRN 6
SNP 5

1st-15th March
N=1,938

Even taking UK Polling Report stats, you see Lib Dems flat lining at around 10%.

Hardly a big upswing in national support, when you would expect the combination of Labour imploding and pro-EU voters should be flocking to them.


Imagine most Lib Dem gains in next GE will be in those marginal seats where they run close behind Cons and/or Labour in 2015, i.e don't need a massive uptick nationally to double their presence in HoC?
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