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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180785 times)
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« Reply #7890 on: April 23, 2017, 10:05:10 AM »

Worth reflecting that the last time LAB won a working majority without Blair as leader was in 1966 - 51 years ago
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« Reply #7891 on: April 23, 2017, 10:05:48 AM »

Sunday Times Scotland/Panelbase poll

John Curtice analysis of our poll shows Tories on course for 12 seats in Scotland.

Labour wiped out

here is that poll

ST/Panelbase Scotland poll Change from 2015

SNP 44% (-6)
Con 33% (+18)
Lab 13% (-11)
Lib Dems 5% (-2)
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« Reply #7892 on: April 23, 2017, 10:06:18 AM »

ST/Panelbase Scotland poll Seat projections by John Curtice

SNP 45 (-11)
Con 12 (+11)
Lib Dem 2 (+1)
Lab 0 (-1)
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« Reply #7893 on: April 23, 2017, 10:06:36 AM »

Tories' best Scottish poll since May 1983. They haven't polled 33% in GE in Scotland since 1970

The Nationalist realignment between SNP/Labour is now being followed by a Unionist/Tory realignment of almost equally dramatic proportions, said one commentator
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« Reply #7894 on: April 23, 2017, 10:09:21 AM »

an interesting thought from one politicial editor on a left leaning paper

"If voting Ukip in locals, and Leave in Brexit, was the gateway drug for ex-Lab voters to voting Tory, this spells trouble. With a capital T."

A UKIP-->Tory squeeze is interesting for Labour-Tory frontier. A lot of Labour seats whose margins < UKIP vote share.

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #7895 on: April 23, 2017, 10:11:40 AM »

Public Approval / Disapproval ratings:

T. May: 49 / 28
J. Corbyn: 18 / 53
T. Farron: 17 / 35
P. Nuttall: 11 / 42

(via Opinium)
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« Reply #7896 on: April 23, 2017, 10:57:05 AM »

and this morning

ICM/ITV:

CON 48 (+2)
LAB 26 (+1)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 8 (=)
GRN 3 (-1)
SNP 4 (=)
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« Reply #7897 on: April 23, 2017, 10:58:46 AM »

look at the final line

amazing really

Vote Tory for a fairer society: Survation for Mail on Sunday

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« Reply #7898 on: April 23, 2017, 01:23:10 PM »

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 43% (+1)
No: 52% (-1)

(via Panelbase / ended 21 Apr)
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« Reply #7899 on: April 23, 2017, 01:24:15 PM »

Cheers for keeping up with all these posts, Rich.

I can't offer any insight, as an ignorant rofler. However, I do enjoy catching up while knocking the top off my first espresso  Cool
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« Reply #7900 on: April 23, 2017, 02:49:00 PM »

this is an interesting thesis.

i wonder if you agree with it?

Election Data‏ @election_data

As I've said all along, unwinding the instinctive negative emotional judgement on Corbyn (which is by now hard-wired) is implausible

I've tested it. The negativity towards Corbyn is of an emotional scale and intensity which is unprecedented in such research.

Corbyn loyalists regularly express intense, emotive, barely rational hostility about Conservatives. The prob is that's what many voters feel re: Jez.

So any policy stuff fails to cut through, they dislike the man



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« Reply #7901 on: April 23, 2017, 03:11:18 PM »

this is an interesting thesis.

i wonder if you agree with it?

Election Data‏ @election_data

As I've said all along, unwinding the instinctive negative emotional judgement on Corbyn (which is by now hard-wired) is implausible

I've tested it. The negativity towards Corbyn is of an emotional scale and intensity which is unprecedented in such research.

Corbyn loyalists regularly express intense, emotive, barely rational hostility about other labour voters. The prob is that's what many voters feel re: Jez.

So any policy stuff fails to cut through, they dislike the man





FYP
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« Reply #7902 on: April 23, 2017, 04:48:27 PM »

this is an interesting thesis.

i wonder if you agree with it?

Election Data‏ @election_data

As I've said all along, unwinding the instinctive negative emotional judgement on Corbyn (which is by now hard-wired) is implausible

I've tested it. The negativity towards Corbyn is of an emotional scale and intensity which is unprecedented in such research.

Corbyn loyalists regularly express intense, emotive, barely rational hostility about Conservatives. The prob is that's what many voters feel re: Jez.

So any policy stuff fails to cut through, they dislike the man




Absolutely, my political leanings have always been slightly left of centre and my social media bubble reflects this. So I see quite a lot from Corbyn loyalists and when one of the problems is the contempt that some to seem to hold towards anyone who doesn't believe the same.

I am exactly the type of voter they need, I like a lot of the policies about a fairer society but have issues with Corbyn's ability to enforce comptently. Also as a remainer I feel that Corbyn was next to useless in the referendum and a clearer pro remain campaign from Labour could have changed the result. I move next month to the Croydon central constituency, conservative majority less than 200 over labour in 2015, my vote in most elections would be a big one to get.
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« Reply #7903 on: April 23, 2017, 05:27:04 PM »

The hardcore Corbyn supporters are some of the nastiest people in politics, and right now they seem to be attacking the centre left voters who are trying to decide between Lib Dem and Labour. I think they actually hate those they deem 'traitors' or 'scabs' (or Blairites) more than they do right wingers. Everyone seems to be going after JK Rowling right now in this manner.

There are so many ways that this film was prophetic, but in particular this scene feels fitting:



« Last Edit: April 23, 2017, 05:28:45 PM by DaveShoelace » Logged
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« Reply #7904 on: April 23, 2017, 05:35:19 PM »

Those wankers exist in various forms from issue to issue. Its was prevalent during brexit, although a much bigger group of people, I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm convinced it was those clowns belittling others that tipped the vote away from them, what goes round comes around......maybe they will learn maybe they wont.

They talk about tolerance, but actually when it comes to it they are some of the least tolerant people around when it comes to accepting views that arent aligned with theirs.
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