The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

In seats that Labour hold by over 15%.......Labour are just 4% ahead of the Conservatives (43% to 39%) according to that ICM Research poll

[TightEnd]

same poll UKIP are retaining just 41% of their vote from 2015. Almost half of 2015 Kippers have gone to the Conservatives; 5% to Labour.

[TightEnd]

“She [Theresa May] seems like a Tory politician with some Labour values.” Labour Leave voter switching to Tories,in a focus group

(otherwise known as the position from which a Tory wins elections, you win your own vote and the centre/centre left)

the focus group stuff is interesting

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/leave-voters-must-vote-tory-if-they-believe-in-democracy-says-focus-group_uk_590afe60e4b02655f8448327?ir=UK+Politics&utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&ncid=newsletter-uk

[PokerBroker]

In Scotland there is a sectarian element in play and I am not just talking about the herald's "investigation" that Orange Lodge members gaining council seats with Labour and the Tories. 

Labours vote has disintegrated.  There are still fools. 

Tory first preference vote in Glasgow is down but they picked up seats that were never expected - political sectarianism - Labour Councilors so hostile to the SNP they are urging their supporters to use 2nd/3rd pref to a tory rather than SNP. 

I wasn't impresed with SNP recent part election broadcast. 

[TightEnd]

"Theresa May's Team" is at an Asian community centre in Harrow waiting for the PM to speak

again,it must have tested as a much stronger brand than the conservatives.

Click to see full-size image.

Although it's the logical extreme of where British politics has gone since Blair..I hate this personalising of politics

as to this point yesterday

Theresa May's team: Conservative choice of words doubtless because the Prime Minister is more popular than her party

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/corbyn-favourability-remains-rock-bottom-ahead-gen/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Labour's problem in both 2015 and now according to one pundit

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

How much is the revival of the Scottish Tories down to Ruth Davidson, their leader?

The strange rebirth of Scottish Conservatism

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/the-strange-rebirth-of-scottish-conservatism/

[TightEnd]

Scottish Tory analysis predicts party could claim 13 seats in general election http://dlvr.it/P5PHPy

[TightEnd]

Theresa May's pledge to lower immigration is unachievable and unhinged, this says

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/theresa-mays-pledge-lower-immigration-unachievable-and-unhinged

[TightEnd]

what has been cutting through in this campaign?

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Something happened yesterday. Theresa May's takeover of the UKIP electorate is complete.

 ICM data

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

with apologies to doobs

these graphs again

"Tories targeting Labour seats with 10% majorities & 10%+ UKIP share. Labour sending Corbyn somewhere else."

Click to see full-size image.

an update with more newspaper wrapper ads.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+10)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-9)
GRN: 3% (-1)

(@Survation / phone method)

Chgs. w/ GE

[TightEnd]

On who would you trust to negotiate the best Brexit deal for Britain: T. May: 62% J. Corbyn: 20% (via @Survation)

On who would you trust to protect the NHS: T. May: 42% J. Corbyn: 39% (via @Survation) (editorial comment: !!)

On who would you trust to manage the economy: T. May: 62% J. Corbyn: 21% (via @Survation)

On who would you trust to promote a fairer society: T. May: 46% J. Corbyn: 37% (via @Survation)  (editorial comment: !!)

[TightEnd]

ICM:

Leave Cons 62%, Lab 19%, Ukip 10%, LD 3% SNP 3% G 2%.

Remain: Cons 37%, Lab 35%, LibDem 18%, SNP 5%, Green 3%

http://linkis.com/www.icmunlimited.com/PjPnC