The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

a round up of journalist comments from across the spectrum leave and remain

-May’s Brexit stance has been incrementally softening for more than a year - it will have to soften further for a deal. Hard Brexit suffering death by a thousand cuts.

- For me big change is Cabinet decided it wants to maintain *frictionless* [not just ‘as possible’] EU trade - ie unwilling to introduce any frictions that imperil car industry/ Airbus jobs etc -so accept logic of total alignment and thus constraints on scope of new FTAs eg with US

- SCOOP: May has promised cabinet allies she’ll sack Boris if he steps out of line again.

- Today’s Brexit deal is 80% of the way towards Norway plus some of the principles of the customs union....

... given the PM will never do CETA because it means a hard border in NI, if the EU say no cherry picking on FM then full single market full customs union much more likely

- Given May’s shift from a clean, “red, white and blue” FTA Brexit to a Norway tribute act Brexit, the EU has reason to believe — and does — that under pressure  she’ll accept the SM in its entirety.

- Whether you voted for or against Brexit, there is one burning question tonight:
How did the people who told us we could have our cake and eat it fail to come up with a workable alternative plan? This is a worse deal than remaining in the EU - and it still has to be negotiated.

- The big unknown is will the EU destroy the Tories by making them accept free movement to get any deal (to dissuade other countries from leaving)? Or does the idea of a Corbyn government rejuvenating the European left worry the EU enough that it'll let the Tories muddle through?

- I naively thought Brexit would be an unfrozen moment, a national renewal, a reconnection. All the smug Corporate-Blairites replaced by more sensible, responsive Government. But let’s be honest they have staged a brilliant counter revolution and the whole thing is a fiasco

- it was an utterly stupid idea from the outset; foolish, irresponsible & completely disconnected from the truths - however regrettable you think them - of how economies work in the era of globalisation.

- Clear that Britain's existing EU deal is better than May's plan, Brextremist fantasies or crashing out with no deal. Chequers meeting is about minimising national self-harm. What a farce

- Hard brexiters lost the argument because they cannot explain how to unwind 40 years of regulatory interdependency without causing unacceptable economic damage.

[TightEnd]

Cabinet back Theresa May’s third way. How will Brussels respond?

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/cabinet-back-theresa-mays-third-way-how-will-brussels-respond/

[TightEnd]

FT

[MANTIS01]

I think the Trump visit is significant and expect to see May laughing and back-slapping at the Chelsea flower show. At least as positive as Kim & Trump I would hope.

With Trump high-fiving us, winning the world cup and a united cabinet the EU position is weaker and Barnier gonna look like ridic bogeyman if he continues tough talking.

If they still no deal then let's go.

We're already battle-hardened after austerity and when their people across multiple countries start feeling the pinch they will think wtf we no deal for? We will be the plucky world cup winners who did soft Brexit to compromise but the wicked witches wouldn't budge. They wanted to teach everybody a lesson and don't we all feel glad about that, to be broke but sticking to the 'principles of a system'. Then referendums in marginal countries followed by Grexit & Italexit etc. Don't think the EU position is as strong as people make out, a couple of old euro fogies hating on Britian will soon get found out.

[TightEnd]

another fantastic column from a fabulous writer

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/06/chequers-summit-jeremy-kyle-real-housewives-cabinet-brexit

[kukushkin88]

Can't underestimate the feel good and unity that winning this world cup is going to achieve.

Conquer the world and we'll see Barnier fold quicker than Tikay in his staking thread.

C'MON ENGLAND!

Surely if we are going to link it to Brexit we should be talking about the Little Englander’s getting their hopes. Then a miracle happens to make it look like it could really happen. Then the cold reality that we are horribly overmatched by say Barnier’s France or just a load of guys from Brussels, then us shitting ourselves. Then a proper humiliating defeat a real ‘one for ages’ job maybe like 6-0 in the final if they go easy on us.

[TightEnd]

new Chequers agreement polling in Mail on Sunday

Updated Westminster voting intention is:

CON 38% (-3)  LAB 40% (+2)  LD 10% (+3)  SNP 3% (-1)  Others 9% (-1)

(Changes since 21st June)

[TightEnd]

Dilemma for Cabinet Brexiteers is: Canada style deal doesn’t match what May committed to on the Irish border in December. But you can’t have everything ready for ‘no deal’ by March 2019 so you can’t scrap joint report & transition. So, what do they do?

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/the-reason-mays-third-way-won-approval-cabinet-brexiteers-have-no-alternative-plan/

[TightEnd]

Boris Johnson’s meeting of the Cabinet Brexiteers only highlighted their problems. They don’t all agree, they aren’t prepared to risk bringing down the government & they don’t have an alternative plan

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6717197/boris-johnson-boxed-in-theresa-may-brexit-plan/

[TightEnd]

How Theresa May trounced the Brexiteers, by Robert Peston

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/how-theresa-may-trounced-the-brexiteers/

[TightEnd]

Tory hard brexiteers circulating an 18 page critique of Theresa May’s cabinet deal which they call a “devastating critique”.

this is the conclusion

[TightEnd]

A view from one observer

There are 2 major faults being found to the chequers deal.

1. The parts of EU law UK stays in (goods) means becoming a rule-taker.

2. The parts of EU law UK leaves (services) means bye-bye to frictionless trade.

[TightEnd]

At the Chequers meeting, Boris Johnson 'declared May's plans "a big turd" and said that anyone defending them would be "polishing a turd" - before backing down and supporting them".

From Tim Shipman's Sunday Times splash.

[TightEnd]

Sunday Telegraph: “millions have been betrayed.” The customs plan amounts to what David Cameron wanted: a renegotiated membership, not full independence.

[TightEnd]

the marr gove interview this morning was good

gove is like may's human shield v the loonies

Gove realistic on the compromise, implied it was the only deal that could ensure no irish hard border