The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Tal]

Am I right on saying this result makes a quick General Election just about a 0% chance until the deal/no deal is sorted and, therefore, the only vote available to (the currently Brexit Party-free) Parliament is a - now much more likely - second referendum?

Does 31% voting for the Brexit Party mean 20% of people have changed their mind in the last three years? Single point manifesto party with the clearest of messages didn't draw their vote. Again, might give come form of confidence to the second referendum advocates.

It doesn’t automatically follow that voters that voted for Brexit would vote for the Brexit Party does it?

There will be plenty of Tory and Labour voters that will have stayed loyal to their party even if they voted for Brexit in the referendum.

Looking at the numbers those two parties got, not that many! Taking my tongue away from the cheek for a moment...it could also have been apathy from those who don't think we will ever leave and they couldn't bother to vote. Lib Dems got the Tory remain votes, so it's possible the Tory parliamentary party goes more Brexit, in order to save itself. Clock is ticking to the next GE, after all. 

How many of the 120,000 Tory members who decide the next Prime Minister voted Tory last week? This strengthens the hand of Boris and Raab in particular, you'd think.

[nirvana]

I think your probably right that a snap GE after the leadership election is a lowish probability but that doesn't completely reckon with the hubris of some of the candidates that could win, like Johnson and Raab for example.

More generally, I think the result fairly accurately reflects the situation before the referendum especially as those voting are likely to be those most interested in the European issue. Around a third are died in the wool leavers (inclusive of all racists etc), around a third are die hard remainers (inclusive of all corporate and globalist shills) and around a third are pragmatists/not bothered.

I imagine most people who voted Tory are of a remain tendency and a good chance that those who voted labour are a mix of leavers and remainers who couldn't go the way of voting for anything other than Labour . On balance, I think it probably shows that there is more momentum for remain than leave.

Both sides will claim victory, both will do nothing to soften their views and the issue will continue to look intractable right up until:

a) We ask for another extension or
b) Tories try to leave with no deal which is blocked and leads to
(i) another refererendum
(ii) a GE

My money would be on us posturing and farking around spouting all the same May lines about no deal better than a bad deal, re-stating the default position etc and then asking for an extension.

[TightEnd]

Top EU election fact: the country remains as divided as ever.

The *unambiguously* pro-Remain parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, SNP and Plaid) got 40.3%.

The pro-Brexit parties – Brexit party and Ukip – got 34.9% of vote.

You can squabble over Labour (majority remain but corbyn etc )and the Tories (majority leave but ken clarke etc)

[TightEnd]

In the most strongly Leave Conservative-held area, Boston and Skegness, the Brexit Party finished 42 points ahead of the Tories

While in the most strongly Remain Conservative-held area, Putney, the Tories finished 5th, some 27 points behind the Lib Dems 

No easy answers.

[TightEnd]

so The Brexit Party did very well, Lib Dems and Greens did well and the two established parties are did terribly.

Putting this result into a First Past The Post election would not produce a strong or stable government.

The irony being of course that leaving, or voting to, is going to produce much more European style coalition politicsunder FPTP as the two party system fragments

[TightEnd]

and this is clever, but needs several reads

Bush

"There are too many people who vote on Remain/Leave lines to win a majority on left/right lines. There aren't enough people who vote on Remain/Leave lines to win a majority on Remain/Leave lines."

[TightEnd]

sky's new political editor said

" I don’t know how our politicians sort this out. Leave & Remain sides in echo chambers; result will only reinforce hard Brexiteer Tory side & 2nd ref on Lab side
- General election likely to return a hung parl
- Brace for a rolling crisis for months to come"

[TightEnd]

Payne meanwhile

" Britain is nigh ungovernable. Voters are trapped in Remain/Leave silos. Neither side has anything like a clear majority. If these results were reflected in a general election, it'd be a hung parliament."

[TightEnd]

same theme

Goodwin

"No easy answers for Labour & Conservatives

If Labour put pedal down on Remain their Welsh & northern heartlands open up to a major Brexit Party incursion

But if Conservatives put pedal down on No Deal then their 50-ish majority Remain seats fall vulnerable to challengers"

[TightEnd]

Collins

"Politics is moving to a new state of opinion. The two main parties are primed to gather coalitions that no longer exist. They need to split and regroup but the history and the system makes that so difficult."

[TightEnd]

Owen Smith

"So in Wales 352k people voted for unambiguously pro-Remain parties and 352k voted for unambiguously pro-Brexit parties. 127k others voted for Labour."

[TightEnd]

Thornberry, the star of the BBC coverage took no shit

"We were not clear on the one single thing people wanted to hear. We shdve said quite simply that any deal that comes out of this govt should be put to a confirmatory referendum + that Remain should be on the ballot paper + that Labour would campaign to Remain.”

[TightEnd]

so how does Labour solve this?

[TightEnd]

Fab line in the guardian about spoilt ballots in Leicester:

“Williams...found one ballot which had ‘wank’ written in every single box apart from that of the Green party. The voter left a note saying ‘not wank’ for the environmentalist party which was deemed acceptable as a vote.”

[TightEnd]

Collins again


The affiliations which upheld the two main parties are breaking.