The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Mark_Porter]

..

And why is no deal off the table? (Rhetorical question) It's because parliament dont want out because they 'know' what's best. Is that representing the people?
...

No Deal is off the table because it's a terrible thing to do; doing what is best for the country is what Parliament is meant to be doing.

I can't think of a better way of representing the people then doing things that make the country stronger, and not doing things that actively harm us.

But it is not everyones opinion that its the best thing to do. There are so called experts from both camps. Who knows for sure what will happen? The remain campaign stated many things during the campaign that simply have not happened such as we would be in a recession to mane one.


The point i am really trying to make is that the negotiations have not been strong.

May went with strong red lines. brexit means brexit, and especially no freedom of movement. This actually was quite confrontational (from the viewpoint of a wide range of views in parliament) and wasn't very remainer friendly to build a consensus

we hear this "they predicted recession on day one and it never happened" a lot. But never the context.

1 we have the lowest growth rate of any of the G10

2 this despite the BOE propping up the economy with £70bn of Quantitative easing day 1 (pumping money into circulation to boost activity) after the leave vote. This prevented a nasty exogenous shock, which the leave vote might have been

3 The pound has fallen from €1.3 to €1.1 since 2016

4 We have seen lots of signs of corporate distress. Yes some of that is structural changes in places like the high street so you can't say its leave vote related, but for the multinationals all have quoted Brexit and the prospect of it to some extent

and the worst is yet to come ie leaving, yet alone what admittedly may be a slim prospect of no deal.

Its case unproven

Some more context and playing devils advocate:-

1. We are still the fifth largest economy in the world

2. We currently have the lowest levels of unemployment in 40 years

3. There are some corporate good news stories. Both Google and Amazon have committed to the UK with more investment and new office plans. BMW picked the Oxford plant to build it's electric Mini rather than alternatives in Germany/Netherlands.

I don't think it is untrue to say that an apocalyptic picture was painted by certain politicians and economists and some of that picture was exaggerated or has just not come to pass. I'm sure a big majority would be happy to revoke Brexit if everything had collapsed.

Until we are actually out, it's case unproven

[TightEnd]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

[nirvana]

..

And why is no deal off the table? (Rhetorical question) It's because parliament dont want out because they 'know' what's best. Is that representing the people?
...

No Deal is off the table because it's a terrible thing to do; doing what is best for the country is what Parliament is meant to be doing.

I can't think of a better way of representing the people then doing things that make the country stronger, and not doing things that actively harm us.

But it is not everyones opinion that its the best thing to do. There are so called experts from both camps. Who knows for sure what will happen? The remain campaign stated many things during the campaign that simply have not happened such as we would be in a recession to mane one.


The point i am really trying to make is that the negotiations have not been strong.

May went with strong red lines. brexit means brexit, and especially no freedom of movement. This actually was quite confrontational (from the viewpoint of a wide range of views in parliament) and wasn't very remainer friendly to build a consensus

we hear this "they predicted recession on day one and it never happened" a lot. But never the context.

1 we have the lowest growth rate of any of the G10

2 this despite the BOE propping up the economy with £70bn of Quantitative easing day 1 (pumping money into circulation to boost activity) after the leave vote. This prevented a nasty exogenous shock, which the leave vote might have been

3 The pound has fallen from €1.3 to €1.1 since 2016

4 We have seen lots of signs of corporate distress. Yes some of that is structural changes in places like the high street so you can't say its leave vote related, but for the multinationals all have quoted Brexit and the prospect of it to some extent

and the worst is yet to come ie leaving, yet alone what admittedly may be a slim prospect of no deal.

Its case unproven

Point one doesn't look correct

[MANTIS01]

Maybot’s negotiating has been worse than her dancing from the get go

Whatever her intimated red lines and tough rhetoric it was all for the cameras. This whole gig has been about deceiving people so desired minority outcomes are delivered instead. When it’s all revoked and the minority of wizards have turned over the British people I hope they feel hugely satisfied with their logical achievement. Will be so brilliantly logical for them and they should feel so proud to have protected the majority from our own self harm. Heroes one and all, we would shed a tear & thank you (but that’s an emotional reaction and unwelcome in ur world)

[Jon MW]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

There are very, very few people on zero hours contracts.

There are abuses of it for sure, but the 'dramatic' growth in them is pretty much all down to the fact that they went from almost none to very few.

[BigAdz]

..

And why is no deal off the table? (Rhetorical question) It's because parliament dont want out because they 'know' what's best. Is that representing the people?
...

No Deal is off the table because it's a terrible thing to do; doing what is best for the country is what Parliament is meant to be doing.

I can't think of a better way of representing the people then doing things that make the country stronger, and not doing things that actively harm us.

But it is not everyones opinion that its the best thing to do. There are so called experts from both camps. Who knows for sure what will happen? The remain campaign stated many things during the campaign that simply have not happened such as we would be in a recession to mane one.


The point i am really trying to make is that the negotiations have not been strong.

May went with strong red lines. brexit means brexit, and especially no freedom of movement. This actually was quite confrontational (from the viewpoint of a wide range of views in parliament) and wasn't very remainer friendly to build a consensus

we hear this "they predicted recession on day one and it never happened" a lot. But never the context.

1 we have the lowest growth rate of any of the G10

2 this despite the BOE propping up the economy with £70bn of Quantitative easing day 1 (pumping money into circulation to boost activity) after the leave vote. This prevented a nasty exogenous shock, which the leave vote might have been

3 The pound has fallen from €1.3 to €1.1 since 2016

4 We have seen lots of signs of corporate distress. Yes some of that is structural changes in places like the high street so you can't say its leave vote related, but for the multinationals all have quoted Brexit and the prospect of it to some extent

and the worst is yet to come ie leaving, yet alone what admittedly may be a slim prospect of no deal.

Its case unproven

Some more context and playing devils advocate:-

1. We are still the fifth largest economy in the world

2. We currently have the lowest levels of unemployment in 40 years

3. There are some corporate good news stories. Both Google and Amazon have committed to the UK with more investment and new office plans. BMW picked the Oxford plant to build it's electric Mini rather than alternatives in Germany/Netherlands.

I don't think it is untrue to say that an apocalyptic picture was painted by certain politicians and economists and some of that picture was exaggerated or has just not come to pass. I'm sure a big majority would be happy to revoke Brexit if everything had collapsed.

Until we are actually out, it's case unproven

Amazing how things can be spun eh..........some people just like to be more half full than half empty....

[BigAdz]

No, a complete misrepresentation

How have remainers been blocking anything?

a deal came back, the hard line brexiters voted against it too. vote in favour (accepting its a staging post), we are out now, all that was required was some compromise and pragmatism (on all sides to be fair)

what do you expect a "leader with bottle" to do to stand up to the EU and realistically succeed? No deal is effectively off the table, WU won't re-open the withdrawal agreement or sell Ireland down the river?

In another case of different perspectives....

How can we really believe that a true Remainer(more than enough conclusive footage out there to prove which way she wanted things to go) was pushing a true Brexiteers deal? No one I know, or you, I suspect witnessed what happened in negotiations, but David Davies walked out, Dominic Raab walked out. I suggest that tells a story of its own.

The meateaters  put the vegan in charge of the buffet and hoped to see a meat only offering.....yeah, thats gonna happen, innit?

[nirvana]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

We're supposed to go from leftish to right wing as we age, not Tory boy to SJW

[nirvana]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

There are very, very few people on zero hours contracts.

There are abuses of it for sure, but the 'dramatic' growth in them is pretty much all down to the fact that they went from almost none to very few.

Oh, and you with your facts facts facts, wtf. :-)

[Pokerpops]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

There are very, very few people on zero hours contracts.

There are abuses of it for sure, but the 'dramatic' growth in them is pretty much all down to the fact that they went from almost none to very few.

Oh, and you with your facts facts facts, wtf. :-)

1,800,000 on contracts with no minimum number of hours according to the Guardian’s reporting of ONS figures for 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/23/number-of-zero-hours-contracts-in-uk-rose-by-100000-in-2017-ons

About half that number, 883,000 according to statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/414896/employees-with-zero-hours-contracts-number/

[Jon MW]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

There are very, very few people on zero hours contracts.

There are abuses of it for sure, but the 'dramatic' growth in them is pretty much all down to the fact that they went from almost none to very few.

Oh, and you with your facts facts facts, wtf. :-)

1,800,000 on contracts with no minimum number of hours according to the Guardian’s reporting of ONS figures for 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/23/number-of-zero-hours-contracts-in-uk-rose-by-100000-in-2017-ons

About half that number, 883,000 according to statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/414896/employees-with-zero-hours-contracts-number/

Which is around 2% to 6% of the working population - i.e. very few.

In the context of this discussion the relevance would be about the change in the number of zero hours contracts as well; even though this has increased that still means we'd be talking about some proportion of what was a small amount to start with -i.e. it doesn't seem like the effect of zero hours contracts on the whole economy is ever going to be particularly relevant.

EDIT: btw both figures are in the ONS report - there aren't official figures for this, they extrapolate it from workforce surveys and those figures are the two surveys that are most used.

[nirvana]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

There are very, very few people on zero hours contracts.

There are abuses of it for sure, but the 'dramatic' growth in them is pretty much all down to the fact that they went from almost none to very few.

Oh, and you with your facts facts facts, wtf. :-)

1,800,000 on contracts with no minimum number of hours according to the Guardian’s reporting of ONS figures for 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/23/number-of-zero-hours-contracts-in-uk-rose-by-100000-in-2017-ons

About half that number, 883,000 according to statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/414896/employees-with-zero-hours-contracts-number/

Really unsure as to why people treat zero hours contracts as a negative, the majority of tradesman have worked like this for centuries, obvs

[kukushkin88]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

There are very, very few people on zero hours contracts.

There are abuses of it for sure, but the 'dramatic' growth in them is pretty much all down to the fact that they went from almost none to very few.

Oh, and you with your facts facts facts, wtf. :-)

1,800,000 on contracts with no minimum number of hours according to the Guardian’s reporting of ONS figures for 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/23/number-of-zero-hours-contracts-in-uk-rose-by-100000-in-2017-ons

About half that number, 883,000 according to statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/414896/employees-with-zero-hours-contracts-number/

Really unsure as to why people treat zero hours contracts as a negative, the majority of tradesman have worked like this for centuries, obvs

One of the reasons why they’re viewed negatively is because when there’s no work because of our massively underperforming economy, it allows our government to paint a less than realistic and rosy picture when it come to employment figures. Loads of them will be in relative poverty and plenty in absolute.

[MANTIS01]

Most of them are actually students who come and go as suits.

Which usually means ruling themselves out for Saturday night shifts, so they can hit town and presumably debate their abject poverty between jäger bombs

[BigAdz]

^ Fair enough.

point 2 i think a valid counter-point is zero hours contracts etc depress the recorded stats but don't lead to job security etc and (i think) wage growth is lagging inflation so living standards are squeezed y-o-y.

There are very, very few people on zero hours contracts.

There are abuses of it for sure, but the 'dramatic' growth in them is pretty much all down to the fact that they went from almost none to very few.

Oh, and you with your facts facts facts, wtf. :-)

1,800,000 on contracts with no minimum number of hours according to the Guardian’s reporting of ONS figures for 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/23/number-of-zero-hours-contracts-in-uk-rose-by-100000-in-2017-ons

About half that number, 883,000 according to statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/414896/employees-with-zero-hours-contracts-number/

Really unsure as to why people treat zero hours contracts as a negative, the majority of tradesman have worked like this for centuries, obvs

One of the reasons why they’re viewed negatively is because when there’s no work because of our massively underperforming economy, it allows our government to paint a less than realistic and rosy picture when it come to employment figures. Loads of them will be in relative poverty and plenty in absolute.

Another person that goes way over the top with his language to make his argument more believable.
Since when was our economy massively under performing? Compared to what? The rest of Europe? because I assure you(and I think you know), we are not. The vast majority of the EU would love to have the bouyancy of our economy. It might not be where we want it to be, but we don't operate in a vacuum.