The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Latest from No10 on Sky News now:


- No face-to-face talks with EU leaders until they agree to negotiate on Withdrawal Agreement. He will "not sit down and be told EU won't change WA"

- No10 confirm that Boris Johnson has not yet spoke to Leo Varadkar

- Daily committees start now

[Jon MW]

on a similar subject. EU funding gave £3.5m for child poverty causes. We sent it back

Presumably, accepting the cash would have entailed acknowledging child poverty which would itself have made it very hard to deny that austerity policies had helped cause it?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49131685

The gist of it seems to be that the government wanted to spend it on breakfast clubs but when the EU said no then nobody could be bothered to come up with an alternative idea.

The government having a single plan/idea and not knowing what to do when that doesn't work seems to be quite a recurring theme recently.

[Jon MW]

There was some interesting chat on here a while ago about poverty - how it is defined and what the reality is in this country.

"The Social Metrics Commission are an organisation that came together with the intention of developing a new approach to poverty measurement."

They published their report today. The link to the full report is on this page - https://socialmetricscommission.org.uk/new-report-on-poverty-from-independent-commission-highlights-scale-of-challenge-facing-new-prime-minister/

The report is really long, they summarised their key findings:-

Overall poverty: There are 14.3 million people in poverty in the UK. This includes 8.3 million working-age adults; 4.6 million children; and 1.3 million pension-age adults.

Depth of poverty: On average, those in poverty have moved closer to the poverty line now than would have been the case in 2000/01. However, a third (31%) of people in poverty – 4.5 million people – are more than 50% below the poverty line, and this proportion has not changed since the millennium.

Persistent poverty: Just under half (49%) of those in poverty are in persistent poverty, meaning they are in poverty now and have also been in poverty for at least two of the previous three years. This totals 7 million people, including 2.3 million children, 1.2 million people living in lone-parent families, and 1.8 million of those living in workless households.

Depth & persistence of poverty: Poverty persistence is particularly high for those in deep levels of poverty. Three fifths (59%) of those living more than 50% below the poverty line are also in persistent poverty, compared to just over a third (36%) of those living within 5% of the poverty line.

Does anyone know how we can find how this data compares to other European countries + America? I guess it won't be exact as their definition of poverty will not be the same. FYI - the commission talk about how they define poverty on pages 13-17 of the report. Interesting read.

Not commenting on the actual findings but I looked through 3 or 4 of their reports and couldn't find anywhere which actually reported on their methodology. The closest I could find was where they mentioned a couple of tweaks, if they're so proud of their new way of measuring poverty you'd have thought they'd have made it easier to find.


EDIT: okay there's an overview in the commentary of the reports - I might have been a bit focussed on the data

[aaron1867]

Freedland

"Why is it that Boris Johnson thinks he can win a no deal election, even though so few people support no deal?

The answer lies in two facts.

1. The Remain camp is divided

2. The leader of the opposition is so unpopular.

Those who want to stop no deal have to address both"

I don't believe that Corbyn is massively unpopular, he has just made a huge blooper and strategic error. The amount of support he was getting in the General election was huge and the result was pretty good, considering.

If he had played his hand differently, by supporting a referendum clearly and quicker, who knows what position Labour would be in now. I'd imagine they'd be polling much differently. But here we are facing a general election in which we have no idea if it's going to be Leave/Remain focused

[TightEnd]

The pound has dropped to its lowest level against the dollar since March 2017 as UK takes hardline stance on 'no-deal' Brexit

comments from the PM in Scotland:

"We've got to be clear that the backstop is no good. It's dead. It's got to go. The Withdrawal Agreement is dead. It's got to go. But there is scope to do a new deal."


It took May 550 days to negotiate the WA. A new one won't emerge in 90, will it?

[TightEnd]

The "backstop must go" stuff is bad enough from an expectation management and negotiability perspective. But the inference that even without the backstop, the Withdrawal Agreement would be unacceptable is very odd.

What exactly is wrong with the rest of it?

The deal isn't going to get through parliament unchanged but that doesn't mean the entire thing needs to be binned. What's needed are surgical changes.

By extending the attack on it so broadly, the Government is making the space for a compromise all but impossible.

[Mark_Porter]

There was some interesting chat on here a while ago about poverty - how it is defined and what the reality is in this country.

"The Social Metrics Commission are an organisation that came together with the intention of developing a new approach to poverty measurement."

They published their report today. The link to the full report is on this page - https://socialmetricscommission.org.uk/new-report-on-poverty-from-independent-commission-highlights-scale-of-challenge-facing-new-prime-minister/

The report is really long, they summarised their key findings:-

Overall poverty: There are 14.3 million people in poverty in the UK. This includes 8.3 million working-age adults; 4.6 million children; and 1.3 million pension-age adults.

Depth of poverty: On average, those in poverty have moved closer to the poverty line now than would have been the case in 2000/01. However, a third (31%) of people in poverty – 4.5 million people – are more than 50% below the poverty line, and this proportion has not changed since the millennium.

Persistent poverty: Just under half (49%) of those in poverty are in persistent poverty, meaning they are in poverty now and have also been in poverty for at least two of the previous three years. This totals 7 million people, including 2.3 million children, 1.2 million people living in lone-parent families, and 1.8 million of those living in workless households.

Depth & persistence of poverty: Poverty persistence is particularly high for those in deep levels of poverty. Three fifths (59%) of those living more than 50% below the poverty line are also in persistent poverty, compared to just over a third (36%) of those living within 5% of the poverty line.

Does anyone know how we can find how this data compares to other European countries + America? I guess it won't be exact as their definition of poverty will not be the same. FYI - the commission talk about how they define poverty on pages 13-17 of the report. Interesting read.

Not commenting on the actual findings but I looked through 3 or 4 of their reports and couldn't find anywhere which actually reported on their methodology. The closest I could find was where they mentioned a couple of tweaks, if they're so proud of their new way of measuring poverty you'd have thought they'd have made it easier to find.


EDIT: okay there's an overview in the commentary of the reports - I might have been a bit focussed on the data

For anyone who wants to dig into this a bit more, this is a good summary of how poverty is measured and the issues with defining what poverty actually means in this country:-

https://fullfact.org/economy/poverty-uk-guide-facts-and-figures/

A useful overview rather than just taking data at face value.

[MANTIS01]

"During his leadership campaign, Boris Johnson said the chances of No-Deal Brexit were “a million to one”, but now his government assumes a No-Deal outcome. A week is a long time in British politics."

the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49141375

So really, which is it? "Million to one" or "the now assumed outcome"? Because if you really want businesses to prepare for no-deal you'd better decide.

This is very positive imo. Our negotiating position moves from very weak to as strong as possible in the blink of an eye.

Sure it’s important for business to prepare but delivering the most favourable conditions for business to flourish into the future is more important.

Looks very likely Boris isn’t going to blink.

[aaron1867]

"During his leadership campaign, Boris Johnson said the chances of No-Deal Brexit were “a million to one”, but now his government assumes a No-Deal outcome. A week is a long time in British politics."

the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49141375

So really, which is it? "Million to one" or "the now assumed outcome"? Because if you really want businesses to prepare for no-deal you'd better decide.

Mants. You know chuff all mate.

kuku told me

This is very positive imo. Our negotiating position moves from very weak to as strong as possible in the blink of an eye.

Sure it’s important for business to prepare but delivering the most favourable conditions for business to flourish into the future is more important.

Looks very likely Boris isn’t going to blink.

[MANTIS01]

"During his leadership campaign, Boris Johnson said the chances of No-Deal Brexit were “a million to one”, but now his government assumes a No-Deal outcome. A week is a long time in British politics."

the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49141375

So really, which is it? "Million to one" or "the now assumed outcome"? Because if you really want businesses to prepare for no-deal you'd better decide.

Mants. You know chuff all mate.

kuku told me

This is very positive imo. Our negotiating position moves from very weak to as strong as possible in the blink of an eye.

Sure it’s important for business to prepare but delivering the most favourable conditions for business to flourish into the future is more important.

Looks very likely Boris isn’t going to blink.

I know how to quote bruv

[aaron1867]

"During his leadership campaign, Boris Johnson said the chances of No-Deal Brexit were “a million to one”, but now his government assumes a No-Deal outcome. A week is a long time in British politics."

the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49141375

So really, which is it? "Million to one" or "the now assumed outcome"? Because if you really want businesses to prepare for no-deal you'd better decide.

Mants. You know chuff all mate.

kuku told me

This is very positive imo. Our negotiating position moves from very weak to as strong as possible in the blink of an eye.

Sure it’s important for business to prepare but delivering the most favourable conditions for business to flourish into the future is more important.

Looks very likely Boris isn’t going to blink.

I know how to quote bruv

Obviously Blonde needs a total update as that was from desktop - don’t even have the old iPhone excuse

[nirvana]

The "backstop must go" stuff is bad enough from an expectation management and negotiability perspective. But the inference that even without the backstop, the Withdrawal Agreement would be unacceptable is very odd.

What exactly is wrong with the rest of it?

The deal isn't going to get through parliament unchanged but that doesn't mean the entire thing needs to be binned. What's needed are surgical changes.

By extending the attack on it so broadly, the Government is making the space for a compromise all but impossible.

Isn't the problem more along the lines that an attempt was made to appease all sides - the ERG nutters say no, no, no to anything short of WTO. The Labour nutters (250 or so of them) wouldn't vote it through based on vague constructs that boil down to a sizable lump of them just not being able to vote with the Tories and expect their local memberships to keep selecting them.

Based on this I think it's appropriate to stop trying to compromise with people who won't compromise at all - ie our parliament, and as a result, the EU.

It's hard to think of surgical changes that would bring a decent number of Labour MPs across and we know it definitely won't bring any Libs or SNP over - most Labour MPs will never vote any deal through, their aim is to disrupt and/or void the result, not make it happen.

To me, it's boiling down to very few possibilities

a) Brinkmanship and tough talk till very close to the deadline and a deal is done
(i) hope the EU blink  - still no guarantee that a deal without the backstop would get through so not sure it makes sense for them to give ground
(ii)or better, hope that Parliament blinks and clamours for a deal (more or less May's deal) to be brought back for a vote

or

b) GE whether by VONC or the Tories taking the lead and going for a GE

At the moment it feels like a) is very unlikely and so a GE is on the cards but things change rapidly.

I think if a) doesn't work, I hope it does but I don't think it will, then c) Extension and a second referendum is becoming a stronger likelihood the more it seems to recede as a possibility.

[Pokerpops]

Alastair Campbell’s view of Corbyn, the Labour Party and Boris’s strategy.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-brexit

Cliffs: he’s not a Corbyn fan.

[kukushkin88]

Alastair Campbell’s view of Corbyn, the Labour Party and Boris’s strategy.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-brexit

Cliffs: he’s not a Corbyn fan.

Good morning

If we’re going to value his thoughts on Corbyn (I think we should), I think we should also value his view on Boris.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alistair-campbell-on-an-evening-with-boris-johnson-and-miley-cyrus-1-6180111

https://alastaircampbell.org/2019/07/how-the-seeds-of-fascism-are-being-sown-by-trump-and-his-fellow-populists/

[Pokerpops]

Alastair Campbell’s view of Corbyn, the Labour Party and Boris’s strategy.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-brexit

Cliffs: he’s not a Corbyn fan.

Good morning

If we’re going to value his thoughts on Corbyn (I think we should), I think we should also value his view on Boris.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alistair-campbell-on-an-evening-with-boris-johnson-and-miley-cyrus-1-6180111

https://alastaircampbell.org/2019/07/how-the-seeds-of-fascism-are-being-sown-by-trump-and-his-fellow-populists/

I love the Miley Cyrus story.

The blog post is too wordy, always an indication that the argument is a little contrived, the linkages being suggested a little less connected.
I’m not saying Trump is anything other than dangerous for the world, nor that Boris is going to go down in history as a great PM, just that AC is working his point too hard.