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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (34.5%)
Labour - 12 (21.8%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.5%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.9%)
Other - 1 (1.8%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.9%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1026257 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #19965 on: August 22, 2019, 02:37:27 PM »

Tighty

If we get to the 24th October is it possible for someone to enter a motion for a vote on an extension?

Parliament votes to extend by a clear majority.

Does Boris have to request one or can he just ignore this?

Thanks

An initial view. Not necessarily 100% correct, i would need to look into it to be totally sure of the following

Any MP can propose a motion. Typically the government can, the opposition can (they have time allocated for opposition debates) and backbenchers can, plus there are Emergency debates.

Once submitted from a backbencher Bercow has to select the motion for debate. Lets assume he does (There has been an increase in both Emergency Debates and Urgent Questions in recent years (Cooper, Benn, Malthouse, Brady etc), reflecting the emphasis that the current Speaker has placed on them as a way of giving backbench MPs a stronger voice in Parliament, and the political circumstances of Brexit.)

A backbencher or emergency motion passing does not bind the Government legally, (though if a motion is substantive it can be classed as a "meaningful vote" which have historically been considered binding ) but they can impose significant political pressure. In normal circumstances. These I suppose wouldn't be normal circumstances and there may be political pressure that Johnson feels he can withstand because of Oct 31 and people's wishes etc

Same applies to no confidence votes. Historically considered binding. However the recent debate is pertinent. A VONC in late Oct, Boris loses, nothing to mean he has to call an election before Oct 31st so we could leave when technically the House has no confidence in the government then he calls an election when we are out, having no dealt. As of now it looks like he would get back in as Brexit party votes go back Tory, though whether with an overall majority is a moot point.

Hence the chatter last week about the urgency for VONC in early Sept as practically its quite tough for a government that can't pass anything to hang on for up to two months without going to the country. Indeed I think no government having lost a VONC has held on for anything like 2 months ever.

It still doesn't look like the GNU is a runner either.

   
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« Reply #19966 on: August 22, 2019, 02:42:06 PM »

Tighty

If we get to the 24th October is it possible for someone to enter a motion for a vote on an extension?

Parliament votes to extend by a clear majority.

Does Boris have to request one or can he just ignore this?

Thanks

An initial view. Not necessarily 100% correct, i would need to look into it to be totally sure of the following

Any MP can propose a motion. Typically the government can, the opposition can (they have time allocated for opposition debates) and backbenchers can, plus there are Emergency debates.

Once submitted from a backbencher Bercow has to select the motion for debate. Lets assume he does (There has been an increase in both Emergency Debates and Urgent Questions in recent years (Cooper, Benn, Malthouse, Brady etc), reflecting the emphasis that the current Speaker has placed on them as a way of giving backbench MPs a stronger voice in Parliament, and the political circumstances of Brexit.)

A backbencher or emergency motion passing does not bind the Government legally, (though if a motion is substantive it can be classed as a "meaningful vote" which have historically been considered binding ) but they can impose significant political pressure. In normal circumstances. These I suppose wouldn't be normal circumstances and there may be political pressure that Johnson feels he can withstand because of Oct 31 and people's wishes etc

Same applies to no confidence votes. Historically considered binding. However the recent debate is pertinent. A VONC in late Oct, Boris loses, nothing to mean he has to call an election before Oct 31st so we could leave when technically the House has no confidence in the government then he calls an election when we are out, having no dealt. As of now it looks like he would get back in as Brexit party votes go back Tory, though whether with an overall majority is a moot point.

Hence the chatter last week about the urgency for VONC in early Sept as practically its quite tough for a government that can't pass anything to hang on for up to two months without going to the country. Indeed I think no government having lost a VONC has held on for anything like 2 months ever.

It still doesn't look like the GNU is a runner either.


Also this option:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/parliament/taking-control-of-the-order-paper/
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« Reply #19967 on: August 22, 2019, 02:46:17 PM »

Macron meets Johnson in Paris: Macron calls the backstop "not just legal quibbling" but "genuine, indispensable guarantees". Not a great start.

Macron: "I’ve always been presented as the hard boy in the group. But that’s just because I’ve always been clear".

Then goes on to prove it: "We will not find a new solution in the 30 days that will be very different from the existing one”.

--

Probably fair. If a viable technical solution was available, it would have been proposed and accepted by now. Not sure that believing in brexit changes that.

“Rofl it wasn’t a negotiation”

In response, Johnson chides Macron by contrasting his pessimism to Merkel's "can do spirit". Adds: "Where there’s a will there’s a way”.

lol.

and johnson the mug gets played again by insisting he will come up with a solution.



Not quite sure how else he should try and act?

Maybe you could make a contribution of a thought process, as to how we go about this, rather than just slag things off?

the thought process?  johnson has no thought process other than defending the tory party from massive losses at the next election. 

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« Reply #19968 on: August 22, 2019, 04:00:07 PM »

Is it just me or has anybody else noticed Remain are a rather cynical bunch..
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« Reply #19969 on: August 22, 2019, 04:48:08 PM »


I guess this one was kind of obvious but still amazing that they don’t even seem to care how quickly the b/s can be laid bare. Also kind of indicates that they know they can’t let no deal happen, this promise would insta crash with quite a high profile.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49433027
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« Reply #19970 on: August 22, 2019, 04:59:25 PM »

I know everyone loves the Daily Mail.....

Emmanuel Macron says 'Oui!': French president backs Angela Merkel's plan to give Boris Johnson 30 days to come up with an alternative to the backstop - but suggests he doesn't think the UK WILL find a solution 

Pound has surged a smidge also.
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« Reply #19971 on: August 22, 2019, 05:11:57 PM »

I know everyone loves the Daily Mail.....

Emmanuel Macron says 'Oui!': French president backs Angela Merkel's plan to give Boris Johnson 30 days to come up with an alternative to the backstop - but suggests he doesn't think the UK WILL find a solution 

Pound has surged a smidge also.

Merkel has confirmed that people have completely the wrong idea about her “30 days”.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-germany-merkel-idUSKCN1VC1IB
(just the stuff in direct quotes is enough)
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« Reply #19972 on: August 22, 2019, 05:22:52 PM »

I know everyone loves the Daily Mail.....

Emmanuel Macron says 'Oui!': French president backs Angela Merkel's plan to give Boris Johnson 30 days to come up with an alternative to the backstop - but suggests he doesn't think the UK WILL find a solution 

Pound has surged a smidge also.

You can't surge a smidge, it's a contradiction in terms.
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« Reply #19973 on: August 22, 2019, 06:10:52 PM »


An important point:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49432821
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« Reply #19974 on: August 22, 2019, 07:13:38 PM »

I know everyone loves the Daily Mail.....

Emmanuel Macron says 'Oui!': French president backs Angela Merkel's plan to give Boris Johnson 30 days to come up with an alternative to the backstop - but suggests he doesn't think the UK WILL find a solution 

Pound has surged a smidge also.

Merkel has confirmed that people have completely the wrong idea about her “30 days”.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-germany-merkel-idUSKCN1VC1IB
(just the stuff in direct quotes is enough)

What ‘people’ have completely the wrong idea?

Boris is not meeting with the EU...

...but if he wants a deal a solution must be found within his self imposed deadline

tbf not certain what idea these ‘people’ have. But those are the obv FACTS.
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« Reply #19975 on: August 22, 2019, 07:25:07 PM »

On the subject of misrepresentation of the Bojo/Merkel press conference and the fact Merkel “gave Boris 30 days” etc

Just interesting to point out Merkel is not the EU negotiator. Speaking for the 27 probably not in her remit like and highlights the George Orwell all equals quote. If leader of minor member steps up with this rhetoric it’d be wtf??

This is the point though, Merkel didn’t suggest anything had changed at all (unless there’s a mistranslation). We can listen to every word:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BqxVl-KjZi4

Re: The previous Mantis post.

This:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/the_papers

Listen to the press conference, read the headlines. It’s clearly a problem.

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« Reply #19976 on: August 22, 2019, 07:59:20 PM »

Is it a problem?

He has 30 days to provide a solution.

Doesn’t matter what anybody says.
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« Reply #19977 on: August 22, 2019, 08:03:29 PM »

If we leave without a deal, what happens with the Irish border?
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« Reply #19978 on: August 22, 2019, 08:06:27 PM »

If we leave without a deal, what happens with the Irish border?

Potentially a hard border ie checkpoints, barriers, customs officials. This violates the GFA. Whilst Boris says he would not do it, the ROI probably would as part of the EU to protect the integrity of the single market.
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« Reply #19979 on: August 22, 2019, 08:08:08 PM »

If we leave without a deal, what happens with the Irish border?

Potentially a hard border ie checkpoints, barriers, customs officials. This violates the GFA. Whilst Boris says he would not do it, the ROI probably would as part of the EU to protect the integrity of the single market.

This is a good summary:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-47786455
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