NFL 2017-18 season

[Doobs]

NFL Research
@NFLResearch
1h

Ben Roethlisberger on 4th-and-1 rush attempts in his career, including playoffs:

19 attempts
18 first downs

Highest success rate (94.7 percent) of any player with over 10 attempts since 2004 (including playoffs)

Steelers on 4th-and-1 today:
0-for-2 (Bell run, Ben pass)

The perils of reading too much into some stats and a good example of how variance works.

[Tal]

NFL Research
@NFLResearch
1h

Ben Roethlisberger on 4th-and-1 rush attempts in his career, including playoffs:

19 attempts
18 first downs

Highest success rate (94.7 percent) of any player with over 10 attempts since 2004 (including playoffs)

Steelers on 4th-and-1 today:
0-for-2 (Bell run, Ben pass)

The perils of reading too much into some stats and a good example of how variance works.

Well yes.

But also bizarre playcalling in not running it once on 4th down.

[Doobs]

NFL Research
@NFLResearch
1h

Ben Roethlisberger on 4th-and-1 rush attempts in his career, including playoffs:

19 attempts
18 first downs

Highest success rate (94.7 percent) of any player with over 10 attempts since 2004 (including playoffs)

Steelers on 4th-and-1 today:
0-for-2 (Bell run, Ben pass)

The perils of reading too much into some stats and a good example of how variance works.

Well yes.

But also bizarre playcalling in not running it once on 4th down.

I am not disputing the playcalling.  Just saying that the statistic is likely bad because he just got a bit lucky over the previous 19.  Now he has had a couple of bits of bad luck and he is 18/21; which I guess is still good, just not freakishly good. 

On the playcalls, they are just part of randomness too.  There are probably several bad playcalls by each coach in every game, but you don't notice them so much because teams will run good on some bad playcalls.  If the first one had come off, he'd be 19/20 and I don't think anyone would be saying, "let's call it 90% rather than 95% because the last playcall was bad".   

[LeKnave]

NFL Research
@NFLResearch
1h

Ben Roethlisberger on 4th-and-1 rush attempts in his career, including playoffs:

19 attempts
18 first downs

Highest success rate (94.7 percent) of any player with over 10 attempts since 2004 (including playoffs)

Steelers on 4th-and-1 today:
0-for-2 (Bell run, Ben pass)

The perils of reading too much into some stats and a good example of how variance works.

Well yes.

But also bizarre playcalling in not running it once on 4th down.

I am not disputing the playcalling.  Just saying that the statistic is likely bad because he just got a bit lucky over the previous 19.  Now he has had a couple of bits of bad luck and he is 18/21; which I guess is still good, just not freakishly good. 

On the playcalls, they are just part of randomness too.  There are probably several bad playcalls by each coach in every game, but you don't notice them so much because teams will run good on some bad playcalls.  If the first one had come off, he'd be 19/20 and I don't think anyone would be saying, "let's call it 90% rather than 95% because the last playcall was bad".   

Tal's point was that they didn't choose that high % option on either play, so his record remains at 18/19.

[Tal]

NFL Research
@NFLResearch
1h

Ben Roethlisberger on 4th-and-1 rush attempts in his career, including playoffs:

19 attempts
18 first downs

Highest success rate (94.7 percent) of any player with over 10 attempts since 2004 (including playoffs)

Steelers on 4th-and-1 today:
0-for-2 (Bell run, Ben pass)

The perils of reading too much into some stats and a good example of how variance works.

Well yes.

But also bizarre playcalling in not running it once on 4th down.

I am not disputing the playcalling.  Just saying that the statistic is likely bad because he just got a bit lucky over the previous 19.  Now he has had a couple of bits of bad luck and he is 18/21; which I guess is still good, just not freakishly good. 

On the playcalls, they are just part of randomness too.  There are probably several bad playcalls by each coach in every game, but you don't notice them so much because teams will run good on some bad playcalls.  If the first one had come off, he'd be 19/20 and I don't think anyone would be saying, "let's call it 90% rather than 95% because the last playcall was bad".   

Oh sure, but it's a comically stark statistic, even if over a tiny sample.

To be clear, Roethlisberger didn't get to add to his 18/19 stat, because, when the situation arose, the demand from the sideline was to throw instead, including one inexplicably sideways. So, his record remains intact.

Big Ben is 6 foot 5 and 240lb. If he and half a dozen burly linemen can't get a yard of momentum, it's probably poor execution.

[Doobs]

NFL Research
@NFLResearch
1h

Ben Roethlisberger on 4th-and-1 rush attempts in his career, including playoffs:

19 attempts
18 first downs

Highest success rate (94.7 percent) of any player with over 10 attempts since 2004 (including playoffs)

Steelers on 4th-and-1 today:
0-for-2 (Bell run, Ben pass)

The perils of reading too much into some stats and a good example of how variance works.

Well yes.

But also bizarre playcalling in not running it once on 4th down.

I am not disputing the playcalling.  Just saying that the statistic is likely bad because he just got a bit lucky over the previous 19.  Now he has had a couple of bits of bad luck and he is 18/21; which I guess is still good, just not freakishly good. 

On the playcalls, they are just part of randomness too.  There are probably several bad playcalls by each coach in every game, but you don't notice them so much because teams will run good on some bad playcalls.  If the first one had come off, he'd be 19/20 and I don't think anyone would be saying, "let's call it 90% rather than 95% because the last playcall was bad".   

Tal's point was that they didn't choose that high % option on either play, so his record remains at 18/19.

It took me a while...  Got it. 

[Cavey007]

A week to go until Superbowl LII so it's time to have a look around at what's out there. I'm currently halfway through my preview on the big game, 1,500 words on the Eagles at the moment :/ And this is where I'm at so far...

Would you believe that the Pats haven't scored in the first quarter of ANY of their Superbowl wins? And this post-season they've only scored 3 points in the first qtr of the two post-season games this year too. - I think there's two ways to attack this, Eagles +0.5 at 4/5, or if you fancy the Pats to keep it tight... (They've conceded 7 and 0 this post-season, and obviously last SB was 0-0 at the end of the 1st) then u10 points on 365 is at 11/10.

In all of their Tom Brady Superbowl appearances, there has only been one winning margin of more than 4 points, that was last seasons OT win at 6 points. You can get a nice 2/1 on the "Any other result" on the tri-bet market on 365 at the moment (Either team to win by 5 or less, essentially)

Now, I know that, as the away team, the Eagles get to call the toss... I know that the Pats always call Heads and nearly always defer the kick, unfortunately I don't have such knowledge on the Eagles. I would assume they would want to defer as well, most teams these days prefer to receive at the start of the second half.

Obviously there's been a lot of conspiracy theories around the Patriots with regards to the refereeing and lack of penalties against them last week, Paddy seems to be wanting to take advantage of that, there were a few penalty based markets on there - Pats were set at o/u 6.5 penalties against. First team penalised for PI, the Pats were apparently more likely at 8/11, so the 1/1 on the Eagles doesn't seem too bad, I would expect Brady to try a few bombs to Cooks early on and it's usually those types of passes that flags are called on.

Gronk will play, I'd be amazed if he doesn't. You aren't often able to get odds against on him scoring anytime so 11/10 for him on Skybet is probably a decent value.

Think Mack Hollins or Trey Burton will catch a pass? If you do then they'll probably beat their lines of 9.5 and 3.5 respectively, again on PP.

Then, obviously... There's the stupid bets. (Post later in the week about them)

[Cavey007]

It's Brent Celek o3.5 not Trey Burton, he's at 11.5, whoops.

[Cavey007]

My preview is up now at TDTips.com - A lot in there so I'll forgive anyone who doesn't read through it all

[KarmaDope]

Please, anywhere but the Broncos for Kirk Cousins now that Washington traded for Alex Smith to replace him...

[Tal]

Please, anywhere but the Broncos for Kirk Cousins now that Washington traded for Alex Smith to replace him...

Had spent far too long putting together a mock 1st round draft when this broke.

Intention is to start the 18/19 thread with it on Monday, but it needs a major rework now, as I need to decide where Smith ends up.

Best laid plans..!

[Ironside]

BBC or SKY for watching the eagles lift the super bowl tonight?

[tikay]

Current temperature in Minneapolis?

Minus 17C

Sheesh.

[Tal]

BBC or SKY for watching the eagles lift the super bowl tonight?

Sky might be good this year. Neil Reynolds has been an upgrade as host and Jeff Reinebold explains systems well for the audience. They have good guests too.

I probably flick between the two, as the BBC coverage all year has been excellent.

[TightEnd]

Cannot watch Neil Reynolds

BBC for me

in fact, as i don't want either team to win (its like Forest v Derby in the FA Cup final for me,no thanks), it might be the first one i won't stay up for in over 30 years