COVID19

[Cf]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

[nirvana]

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

This is really good, it goes through how Covid spreads.   It isn't political, just good science.

Worth a read if you are planing om going out for a sing song when we reopen or work in a noisy environment. 
 

That's really interesting, I'd been more concerned about surfaces generally than any of the day to day, distanced contacts I have but hadn't really considered the amount of virus in the general airflow of an indoor space of reasonable size

[Jon MW]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Do you think it might be that when they considered what message to give they thought that perhaps people were not incredibly stupid?

Whereas twitter and the media are now overwhelmingly sending the message, "yes we really are that stupid, if you don't tell us exactly what we can or can't do we are definitely going to do the worst and most impractical things possible".

[nirvana]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

[Cf]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Do you think it might be that when they considered what message to give they thought that perhaps people were not incredibly stupid?

Whereas twitter and the media are now overwhelmingly sending the message, "yes we really are that stupid, if you don't tell us exactly what we can or can't do we are definitely going to do the worst and most impractical things possible".

It's not about whether people are stupid or not. The general public are not experts in how pandemics work. All we have heard is the restriction on driving for exercise has been removed and the only rules around it are to stay in the country you're in. So based on that absolutely it's ok to drive to the other side of the country. If it wasn't they'd have told us not to.

You can't just put out some vague guidelines and say "oh but what we actually meant is this which you'd realise if you had some common sense". The Government themselves don't even understand the rules.

[Cf]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

[Jon MW]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

This isn't like telling everyone to work out their own vaccine, it's telling people the importance of social distancing and then expecting them to have some common sense.

It reminds me of the people on twitter who hear, "go to work if you have to but try and avoid public transport if you can", and respond with, "but how can anyone who needs public transport get to work then?"

[Jon MW]

... and it will shape the rest of our lives....

Might be a bit hyperbolic. I expect in 5 years time for this to have had very little impact on day to day life. In 10 years I'd increase that to an almost certainty.

Might bookmark post to compare in 5 and 10 years

[Cf]

... and it will shape the rest of our lives....

Might be a bit hyperbolic. I expect in 5 years time for this to have had very little impact on day to day life. In 10 years I'd increase that to an almost certainty.

Might bookmark post to compare in 5 and 10 years

Maybe it is a bit hyperbolic. Maybe it isn't. But everyone will have their own view on that. So quite how we can look to rely on common sense is beyond me when there's no consensus of what common sense is in this situation.

So when the Government relax restrictions on driving my common sense says don't drive for miles even though it's now allowed (my common sense also says why allow it if I'm not supposed to) but others who don't think this is such a big deal may think that absolutely fine.

[Doobs]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

This isn't like telling everyone to work out their own vaccine, it's telling people the importance of social distancing and then expecting them to have some common sense.

It reminds me of the people on twitter who hear, "go to work if you have to but try and avoid public transport if you can", and respond with, "but how can anyone who needs public transport get to work then?"

I am not an idiot, and that doesn't look that clear to me.  On my reading you should go to work even if you have to use public transport.   But then how do you observe social distancing on the tube in rush hour?  All very good saying use common sense when it really isn't clear what is the common sense option, particularly for those who haven't read a lot about it.  

What happens when you and your employer disagree on the rules?  Someone in my close family was under intense pressure to go to the office before the strict rules came in even though there were 2 clear reasons they shouldn't have gone in.  Both the two people comcerned are degree level educated and can work from home.   Good luck if you are at the bottom and your boss thinks it is only flu.

[Doobs]

... and it will shape the rest of our lives....

Might be a bit hyperbolic. I expect in 5 years time for this to have had very little impact on day to day life. In 10 years I'd increase that to an almost certainty.

Might bookmark post to compare in 5 and 10 years

Maybe it is a bit hyperbolic. Maybe it isn't. But everyone will have their own view on that. So quite how we can look to rely on common sense is beyond me when there's no consensus of what common sense is in this situation.

So when the Government relax restrictions on driving my common sense says don't drive for miles even though it's now allowed (my common sense also says why allow it if I'm not supposed to) but others who don't think this is such a big deal may think that absolutely fine.

My daughter is already pushing to go to the beach.  FWIW I think the issue is where everyone is going to shit and not the distance.

There were some pretty aggressive arguments on the school facebook even when the rules were clear. 

[Pokerpops]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

The message on driving for exercise is pretty clear. If the drive lasts longer than the exercise don’t do it.

[Doobs]

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

Why would R have risen if we had continued with lockdown?

It is the rate of infection per person.  Having less people infected doesn't change that.  Having people wandering round does.  Given more people wandering round by the week means that R was naturally increasing even if number of infected was falling

can't explain more, Sunday big poker night

That makes sense, I suppose if we maintain R at say 0.7, it doesn’t have to fall further for the virus to run out of steam.

So I get that maintaining and not necessarily reducing R further (if it’s under 1) is effective.

It also true to say that lockdown and probably as importantly social distancing measures do reduce R initially.  

And on my 2 week point, if lockdown/distancing/better testing/improving care home conditions etc work then we could theoretically see R fall further.

Yeah, something like that.

I think R in the community is likely above its lows.  Maybe R in hospitals and cars homes might be falling because of better PPE/more people with "immunity" ETC.  It is hard to tell and a very difficult balancing act.  My brother is in New Zealand and contrary to reports they still have some restictions despite very few cases in the whole country.

Just adding to this now I am not playing poker.  I think that R is so close to 1 that even small loosening could push it above 1.  I think the Government have gone too far, but we'll know better in a couple of weeks.  At least we are not living in the States where they don't appear to have gone below 1 in most States but are rushing to reopen.

[Jon MW]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

This isn't like telling everyone to work out their own vaccine, it's telling people the importance of social distancing and then expecting them to have some common sense.

It reminds me of the people on twitter who hear, "go to work if you have to but try and avoid public transport if you can", and respond with, "but how can anyone who needs public transport get to work then?"

I am not an idiot, and that doesn't look that clear to me.  On my reading you should go to work even if you have to use public transport.   But then how do you observe social distancing on the tube in rush hour?  All very good saying use common sense when it really isn't clear what is the common sense option, particularly for those who haven't read a lot about it.  

What happens when you and your employer disagree on the rules?  Someone in my close family was under intense pressure to go to the office before the strict rules came in even though there were 2 clear reasons they shouldn't have gone in.  Both the two people comcerned are degree level educated and can work from home.   Good luck if you are at the bottom and your boss thinks it is only flu.

"On my reading you should go to work even if you have to use public transport."

Yes, because it's clear.

"But then how do you observe social distancing on the tube in rush hour?"

Most people don't commute by tube. Most people don't live in London. The message is still pretty much work from home if you can, along with only use public transport if you have to - so the public transport "shouldn't" be massively crowded. Obviously there are going to be some pictures coming out of overcrowded tubes and buses but this is a national message. Individual areas may have to look at individual solutions.

"What happens when you and your employer disagree on the rules?"

That isn't really much to do with the current announcement. Many people have reported that they were told they couldn't work from home so have to come in anyway. That hasn't changed. Employers have a legal duty of care to their employees - this part of the planning may be the hardest part to police and enforce; but that's the same whether there's an epidemic or not.

[Doobs]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

The message on driving for exercise is pretty clear. If the drive lasts longer than the exercise don’t do it.

Hasn't that changed?  You can sit in a park now, so you can drive an hour to the beach and sit for 2?   Maybe it is clearer now and I just misunderstood what was said early doors last night.