COVID19

[kukushkin88]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

It’s hard to find a way that we’re not top of the European deaths on all known info, with another bad set of data incoming tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1258031311366901761?s=21

The fact that we are behind the other countries means the picture will worsen for us, then factor in that we had more warning than any of them and acted later and it’s hard to say we’re doing ok. We have massively higher rates of new infections (% of all tests that are positive) than anywhere else that has released lockdown, including the crazy US states.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though, let’s wait and see how it plays out, as per my ‘Dipshit Double’ post. If they can be at the top table for both percentage increase in all cause mortality in Europe and percentage contraction of the economy in the G20, that would be extraordinary. For now, all we can say is that they are perfectly placed.

I'm still not sure what he is doing with his numbers.

I had a (quick) look at the ONS figures and just for April I counted 'about' 35,000 excess deaths and 'about' 26,500 have been linked to COVID19. That's already a higher figure than what he states is allocated to COVID19 for the whole of March and April. As said before, the maths he's doing is almost certainly correct - it's a lot less clear what parameters he's using.

I also thought that's not what the question was about.

If you look at the richest earning countries, and countries with the highest number of international travellers - there's a pretty good correlation with how much coronavirus trouble they're having.

They're not causative but they're both linked to the idea of connectivity - the  more connected a country is the worse a pandemic is going to hit it (as always Germany is an outlier in all of this).

The effectiveness of policy shouldn't be based on how many deaths occur compared with other countries, they should be compared with what would have happened with (a) if we'd done nothing and (b) if we'd done the perfect response.

Both of these things are obviously only numbers that can be estimated/guessed at - but that's what you're trying to get close to rather than trying to 'beat' other countries.

The question specifically cites comparisons with other countries.

If you were trying to protect a view that they’re only trying their best, we’ll never know what might have happened, then it would be convenient to try and compare and against ‘do nothing’ and ‘be perfect’ responses, because we will never have any idea what those two things would have looked like. It seems, please correct me if I’m wrong, that you are attached to an idea that there is a big element of luck in how each country is being impacted.

Bad international comparisons are a terrible idea but we can make good international comparisons. It’s an almost unique opportunity to do that.

Firstly, let’s make sure all the countries included are suitably comparable. G20 has obvious benefits, so does all Europe but we can tailor the field as much as anyone likes to ensure the U.K. isn’t treated unfairly. All countries are or certainly should be, trying to achieve the same two things, minimise deaths and protect the economy. The event is, at the outset, equally difficult to predict in each country but we cannot entirely ignore that our epidemic, to this point, has been later than all comparable nations.

We need to make sure that all countries used for the purpose of comparison have the same level of control over high level decision making. The U.K. has no disadvantage on this other than the comms confusion for the devolved administrations, there’s no reason why this would be especially harmful to the economy or result in unnecessary deaths to this point.

If we end up amongst the worst of all comparable nations for both total excess deaths and % economic contraction, it is entirely reasonable to say we did badly and it’s a much better measure than guessing how we did against modelled ‘do nothing’ or ‘be perfect’ scenarios.

[nirvana]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

Haha, harsh. Let's ask another way, what will you actually do as a result of this announcement ?

[StuartHopkin]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

 

Well, I agree with you :-) but I'm quite bias. Out of interest, is your contact an NHS employee or some other civil servant involved in the process ?

We went NHS portal, no response, raised directly with Nicky Morgan, who passed us directly to Matt Hancock or one of his aides, who passed us to a Cabinet Covid Team who got technical approval, who passed us to an MOD closing team.
On Thursday they decided they needed to do more due diligence on our company. This morning they told us this is outsourced and they are still waiting for confirmation it is okay. Everything else is ready for the pack to be passed over to DHAS who make the final decision..
4 weeks and counting.. we still have other items stuck awaiting technical approval.

[Jon MW]

...

 It seems, please correct me if I’m wrong, that you are attached to an idea that there is a big element of luck in how each country is being impacted.
...

Do you really think that there isn't?

The zoonotic jump to start wih comes from a random mutation that enabled the virus to leap species.

In the time before this new disease is identified there could be 0 people from your country in the affected area, or there could be a 1000.
There could be 0 or a 1000 travellers from somewhere else who then travel to your country shortly after.
At one time of the year there could be 0 or a 1000 in these categories so you get luck as to what time of year the virus first infects people; similarly it could change from year to year.

When it is identified the first thing countries do is test, track and trace arrivals from the affected area. But some will get through - that amount is essentially random. It might be 0% it might be 5% - it all makes a difference.

Outside of that test, track and trace program the virus is spreading anyway. The people infected might have a high number of people with natural immunity, it might have a high number of introverts or a high number of family orientated extroverts, it might have a high number of young fitness fanatics or a high number of obese pensioners (etc.)

There is nothing binary about these numbers it's a matter of weighting and probability - but more than anything else it's about randomness.

There are factors that come into play on top of that - like the size of your population, it's population density and the amount of international travel and entry points your country has - but all the numbers start with randomness.

And with exponential growth - random differences to the seed values make very large differences later.

[nirvana]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

 

Well, I agree with you :-) but I'm quite bias. Out of interest, is your contact an NHS employee or some other civil servant involved in the process ?

We went NHS portal, no response, raised directly with Nicky Morgan, who passed us directly to Matt Hancock or one of his aides, who passed us to a Cabinet Covid Team who got technical approval, who passed us to an MOD closing team.
On Thursday they decided they needed to do more due diligence on our company. This morning they told us this is outsourced and they are still waiting for confirmation it is okay. Everything else is ready for the pack to be passed over to DHAS who make the final decision..
4 weeks and counting.. we still have other items stuck awaiting technical approval.

Incredible really - standard processes for non standard times. Pretty easy to run your own instant diligence checks on companies if you subscribe to the right services, combine that with google searches and you should be able to do this stuff pretty quickly. No rush though :-)

[Cf]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

Haha, harsh. Let's ask another way, what will you actually do as a result of this announcement ?

Nothing will change for me in terms of my actions. I can work from home and will continue to do so. My company have already announced nothing is changing. We're software development so we're lucky.

[Cf]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

The message on driving for exercise is pretty clear. If the drive lasts longer than the exercise don’t do it.

Hasn't that changed?  You can sit in a park now, so you can drive an hour to the beach and sit for 2?   Maybe it is clearer now and I just misunderstood what was said early doors last night. 

Exactly. The messaging is anything but clear.

Every time the Government starts a sentence with "we are clear on this" you know what they mean is "we're not clear on this, because otherwise you wouldn't be asking, but..."

[nirvana]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

Haha, harsh. Let's ask another way, what will you actually do as a result of this announcement ?

Nothing will change for me in terms of my actions. I can work from home and will continue to do so. My company have already announced nothing is changing. We're software development so we're lucky.

No doubt and me too, what about privately though, will you drive to the other side of the country for a walk ?

[Cf]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

Haha, harsh. Let's ask another way, what will you actually do as a result of this announcement ?

Nothing will change for me in terms of my actions. I can work from home and will continue to do so. My company have already announced nothing is changing. We're software development so we're lucky.

No doubt and me too, what about privately though, will you drive to the other side of the country for a walk ?

No. I think that irresponsible. But I'm allowed to if I want to.

[kukushkin88]

...

 It seems, please correct me if I’m wrong, that you are attached to an idea that there is a big element of luck in how each country is being impacted.
...

Do you really think that there isn't?

The zoonotic jump to start wih comes from a random mutation that enabled the virus to leap species.

In the time before this new disease is identified there could be 0 people from your country in the affected area, or there could be a 1000.
There could be 0 or a 1000 travellers from somewhere else who then travel to your country shortly after.
At one time of the year there could be 0 or a 1000 in these categories so you get luck as to what time of year the virus first infects people; similarly it could change from year to year.

When it is identified the first thing countries do is test, track and trace arrivals from the affected area. But some will get through - that amount is essentially random. It might be 0% it might be 5% - it all makes a difference.

Outside of that test, track and trace program the virus is spreading anyway. The people infected might have a high number of people with natural immunity, it might have a high number of introverts or a high number of family orientated extroverts, it might have a high number of young fitness fanatics or a high number of obese pensioners (etc.)

There is nothing binary about these numbers it's a matter of weighting and probability - but more than anything else it's about randomness.

There are factors that come into play on top of that - like the size of your population, it's population density and the amount of international travel and entry points your country has - but all the numbers start with randomness.

And with exponential growth - random differences to the seed values make very large differences later.

Lots of randomness for sure. It would be difficult for a country that had no lockdown in place until there were 335 (the number was massively higher of course, on the lag) fatalities to cite the randomness and the unknown nature of early spread in its defence. The overwhelming correlations across all nations that are handling this well are comprehensive contact tracing (impossible for us) or comprehensive early lockdown, we are an international outlier amongst all comparable nations (US/Sweden/Belarus are obv a stretch in terms of being comparable) for choosing against the lockdown option.

[Jon MW]

...

 It seems, please correct me if I’m wrong, that you are attached to an idea that there is a big element of luck in how each country is being impacted.
...

Do you really think that there isn't?

The zoonotic jump to start wih comes from a random mutation that enabled the virus to leap species.

In the time before this new disease is identified there could be 0 people from your country in the affected area, or there could be a 1000.
There could be 0 or a 1000 travellers from somewhere else who then travel to your country shortly after.
At one time of the year there could be 0 or a 1000 in these categories so you get luck as to what time of year the virus first infects people; similarly it could change from year to year.

When it is identified the first thing countries do is test, track and trace arrivals from the affected area. But some will get through - that amount is essentially random. It might be 0% it might be 5% - it all makes a difference.

Outside of that test, track and trace program the virus is spreading anyway. The people infected might have a high number of people with natural immunity, it might have a high number of introverts or a high number of family orientated extroverts, it might have a high number of young fitness fanatics or a high number of obese pensioners (etc.)

There is nothing binary about these numbers it's a matter of weighting and probability - but more than anything else it's about randomness.

There are factors that come into play on top of that - like the size of your population, it's population density and the amount of international travel and entry points your country has - but all the numbers start with randomness.

And with exponential growth - random differences to the seed values make very large differences later.

Lots of randomness for sure. It would be difficult for a country that had no lockdown in place until there were 335 (the number was massively higher of course, on the lag) fatalities to cite the randomness and the unknown nature of early spread in its defence. The overwhelming correlations across all nations that are handling this well are comprehensive contact tracing (impossible for us) or comprehensive early lockdown, we are an international outlier amongst all comparable nations (US/Sweden/Belarus are obv a stretch in terms of being comparable) for choosing against the lockdown option.

How are we an outlier compared to France, Italy and Spain?

[nirvana]

I mean even something as simple as driving is clearly shambolic? We can now drive to take our exercise. Fine. But why isn't this limited to something like "you can drive up to 5 miles". Instead I now have permission to drive to the other side of the country. How's that responsible in a pandemic?

Government already back tracking on things Raab is clarifying. They don't even know the new measures themselves. How are we supposed to?

Yep, should definitely wait, proof read, make sure there is absolutely no ambiguity, delay and then blame someone if it causes an issue. This is the approach that leads to the NHS being unable to source PPE fast enough.

Just figure it out for yourself and do what is sensible for you and the community - why do people need a precise instruction - seems to be a badge of honour to not be able to think for oneself.

I'm sorry that's just nonsense. For many of this is going to be the biggest global disaster we live through and it will shape the rest of our lives. I expect competent leadership to manage the situation not just let everyone to work it out for themselves and hope it will be fine.

Haha, harsh. Let's ask another way, what will you actually do as a result of this announcement ?

Nothing will change for me in terms of my actions. I can work from home and will continue to do so. My company have already announced nothing is changing. We're software development so we're lucky.

No doubt and me too, what about privately though, will you drive to the other side of the country for a walk ?

No. I think that irresponsible. But I'm allowed to if I want to.

Yes, but you're quite capable of making the decision in the circumstances so the changes to the guidelines are not confusing per se. It's a personal choice to be confused or not and our only point of difference is that you'd prefer that other people don't get options to choose their approach and I'd prefer they did.

[nirvana]

...

 It seems, please correct me if I’m wrong, that you are attached to an idea that there is a big element of luck in how each country is being impacted.
...

Do you really think that there isn't?

The zoonotic jump to start wih comes from a random mutation that enabled the virus to leap species.

In the time before this new disease is identified there could be 0 people from your country in the affected area, or there could be a 1000.
There could be 0 or a 1000 travellers from somewhere else who then travel to your country shortly after.
At one time of the year there could be 0 or a 1000 in these categories so you get luck as to what time of year the virus first infects people; similarly it could change from year to year.

When it is identified the first thing countries do is test, track and trace arrivals from the affected area. But some will get through - that amount is essentially random. It might be 0% it might be 5% - it all makes a difference.

Outside of that test, track and trace program the virus is spreading anyway. The people infected might have a high number of people with natural immunity, it might have a high number of introverts or a high number of family orientated extroverts, it might have a high number of young fitness fanatics or a high number of obese pensioners (etc.)

There is nothing binary about these numbers it's a matter of weighting and probability - but more than anything else it's about randomness.

There are factors that come into play on top of that - like the size of your population, it's population density and the amount of international travel and entry points your country has - but all the numbers start with randomness.

And with exponential growth - random differences to the seed values make very large differences later.

Lots of randomness for sure. It would be difficult for a country that had no lockdown in place until there were 335 (the number was massively higher of course, on the lag) fatalities to cite the randomness and the unknown nature of early spread in its defence. The overwhelming correlations across all nations that are handling this well are comprehensive contact tracing (impossible for us) or comprehensive early lockdown, we are an international outlier amongst all comparable nations (US/Sweden/Belarus are obv a stretch in terms of being comparable) for choosing against the lockdown option.

How are we an outlier compared to France, Italy and Spain?

Awaits contortions of every possible fact and piece of data to show that the UK is the worst country in the world except the US of course

[Cf]

This is completely anecdotal but I've just been to the supermarket. Same time, same day that I do every week. It was much busier. No queue outside everyone just allowed in. Social distancing out of the window.

One point there was a group of 8 people (2 to a trolley so only 1 allowed in seems to be gone) stood at the edges of 4 aisles talking to each other about how hard it is to social distance in a supermarket whilst people are having to walk past them. No awareness whatsoever.

What with the magic Monday headlines, the Government's lack of talking back hard against them before the bank holiday, the Government's new confused messaging, it's hard to see how this doesn't explode again. So lockdown for longer, more deaths, and more long term damage to the economy.

[kukushkin88]

...

 It seems, please correct me if I’m wrong, that you are attached to an idea that there is a big element of luck in how each country is being impacted.
...

Do you really think that there isn't?

The zoonotic jump to start wih comes from a random mutation that enabled the virus to leap species.

In the time before this new disease is identified there could be 0 people from your country in the affected area, or there could be a 1000.
There could be 0 or a 1000 travellers from somewhere else who then travel to your country shortly after.
At one time of the year there could be 0 or a 1000 in these categories so you get luck as to what time of year the virus first infects people; similarly it could change from year to year.

When it is identified the first thing countries do is test, track and trace arrivals from the affected area. But some will get through - that amount is essentially random. It might be 0% it might be 5% - it all makes a difference.

Outside of that test, track and trace program the virus is spreading anyway. The people infected might have a high number of people with natural immunity, it might have a high number of introverts or a high number of family orientated extroverts, it might have a high number of young fitness fanatics or a high number of obese pensioners (etc.)

There is nothing binary about these numbers it's a matter of weighting and probability - but more than anything else it's about randomness.

There are factors that come into play on top of that - like the size of your population, it's population density and the amount of international travel and entry points your country has - but all the numbers start with randomness.

And with exponential growth - random differences to the seed values make very large differences later.

Lots of randomness for sure. It would be difficult for a country that had no lockdown in place until there were 335 (the number was massively higher of course, on the lag) fatalities to cite the randomness and the unknown nature of early spread in its defence. The overwhelming correlations across all nations that are handling this well are comprehensive contact tracing (impossible for us) or comprehensive early lockdown, we are an international outlier amongst all comparable nations (US/Sweden/Belarus are obv a stretch in terms of being comparable) for choosing against the lockdown option.

How are we an outlier compared to France, Italy and Spain?

Awaits contortions of every possible fact and piece of data to show that the UK is the worst country in the world except the US of course

Or this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52103747

This still does the job, opportunity to act far earlier, acted significantly later, I think meets the criteria for 'outlier'. I'm happy to involve The Donald if we think comparisons are valid and reasonable.