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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 354183 times)
EvilPie
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« Reply #2115 on: May 10, 2020, 08:46:21 PM »

Can someone explain why you are fine to go back to work tomorrow but you have to wait until Wednesday to exercise in unlimited doses?   Why wasn't that made immediate?  Why Weds?

Just because you can doesn't mean you will. All they've done is announce that that they want people to start going back to work and now the employers have to figure out how.

For my Company nothing will change tomorrow. We are entirely dependent on a few customers most of which have stopped contractors working on site. Those customers now have a bit more rope to let out and look at getting things moving again.

Once we're allowed back on site I'll have to look at how to manage it properly but the chance of any of my guys being back next week is pretty much zero.

This has given businesses a chance to look at things a bit more practically and now that they have the backing of Government they can do so without being chastised for being irresponsible.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #2116 on: May 10, 2020, 08:49:34 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.
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Doobs
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« Reply #2117 on: May 10, 2020, 09:02:00 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.
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RED-DOG
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« Reply #2118 on: May 10, 2020, 09:10:19 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.


Why would R have risen if we had continued with lockdown?
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2119 on: May 10, 2020, 09:10:26 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

Of course he will get criticised. Most excess deaths, measured as a percentage increase of all mortality of any nation in Europe, is in ‘take it to the bank territory’ and we’re well placed now to be amongst the leaders in the G20 for economic contraction in 2020. It should be near impossible to top both of those tables but the Dipshit Double is well and truly on (the e/w part, a near formality).

I’m happy to take advice on whether those are the two best/fairest measures, I think they probably are.
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youthnkzR
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« Reply #2120 on: May 10, 2020, 09:23:29 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

Why would R have increased with a 2 week extension on lockdown? Surely R continues to fall whilst people are staying home.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #2121 on: May 10, 2020, 09:31:21 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.
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nirvana
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« Reply #2122 on: May 10, 2020, 09:34:38 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

Of course he will get criticised. Most excess deaths, measured as a percentage increase of all mortality of any nation in Europe, is in ‘take it to the bank territory’ and we’re well placed now to be amongst the leaders in the G20 for economic contraction in 2020. It should be near impossible to top both of those tables but the Dipshit Double is well and truly on (the e/w part, a near formality).

I’m happy to take advice on whether those are the two best/fairest measures, I think they probably are.

Cold comfort I guess that Corbyn could have achieved one of those without a pandemic,
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2123 on: May 10, 2020, 09:46:06 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.

Professor John Edmunds indicated in his evidence to the Select Committee that it was already on the way back up, this was mainly due to care homes and hospitals, they are also a source of continued community spread. Then we had what Boris said at PMQs and the press being briefed about today, leading to the ‘Freedom’ headlines. There’s no doubt the lockdown has been less stringent since. There’s a chance the community R0 was pretty much as low as it was going to get on lockdown lite.

https://twitter.com/commonsstc/status/1258441468110270464?s=21

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/dont-buy-the-lockdown-lie-this-is-a-government-of-business-as-usual/
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 09:54:18 PM by kukushkin88 » Logged
RickBFA
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« Reply #2124 on: May 10, 2020, 09:56:39 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.

Professor John Edmunds indicated in his evidence to the Select Committee that it was already on the way back up, this was mainly due to care homes and hospitals, they are also a source of continued community spread (care homes are 0.75% of the population, so they couldn’t influence the overall R0 substantially). Then we had what Boris said at PMQs and the press being briefed about today, leading to the ‘Freedom’ headlines. There’s no doubt the lockdown has been less stringent since. There’s a chance the community R0 was pretty much as low as it was going to get on lockdown lite.

https://twitter.com/commonsstc/status/1258441468110270464?s=21

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/dont-buy-the-lockdown-lie-this-is-a-government-of-business-as-usual/

I get the point about care homes adding to the R but surely as testing etc improves, the rate of infection starts to drop. Maybe that would take longer than 2 weeks.

One other quick point, if as you say community R was pretty much as low as it is going to get, then there is no ideal time to start reducing lockdown. By that logic, now is as good a time as any to start loosening it or do we wait another week, month, year whilst the economy gets trashed even more?
(It’s a question not a statement).
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 10:03:11 PM by RickBFA » Logged
kukushkin88
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« Reply #2125 on: May 10, 2020, 10:01:10 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.

Professor John Edmunds indicated in his evidence to the Select Committee that it was already on the way back up, this was mainly due to care homes and hospitals, they are also a source of continued community spread (care homes are 0.75% of the population, so they couldn’t influence the overall R0 substantially). Then we had what Boris said at PMQs and the press being briefed about today, leading to the ‘Freedom’ headlines. There’s no doubt the lockdown has been less stringent since. There’s a chance the community R0 was pretty much as low as it was going to get on lockdown lite.

https://twitter.com/commonsstc/status/1258441468110270464?s=21

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/dont-buy-the-lockdown-lie-this-is-a-government-of-business-as-usual/

I get the point about care homes adding to the R but surely as testing etc improves, the rate of infection starts to drop. Maybe that would take longer than 2 weeks.

My understanding is that with the level of lockdown we have, the community spread R0 has pretty much bottomed out. It will be contract tracing that is needed to drive it down further.

Slightly off on a tangent, this thread is pretty incredible:

https://twitter.com/michaelvkim/status/1258987354934538248?s=21

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RickBFA
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« Reply #2126 on: May 10, 2020, 10:04:12 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.

Professor John Edmunds indicated in his evidence to the Select Committee that it was already on the way back up, this was mainly due to care homes and hospitals, they are also a source of continued community spread (care homes are 0.75% of the population, so they couldn’t influence the overall R0 substantially). Then we had what Boris said at PMQs and the press being briefed about today, leading to the ‘Freedom’ headlines. There’s no doubt the lockdown has been less stringent since. There’s a chance the community R0 was pretty much as low as it was going to get on lockdown lite.

https://twitter.com/commonsstc/status/1258441468110270464?s=21

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/dont-buy-the-lockdown-lie-this-is-a-government-of-business-as-usual/

I get the point about care homes adding to the R but surely as testing etc improves, the rate of infection starts to drop. Maybe that would take longer than 2 weeks.

My understanding is that with the level of lockdown we have, the community spread R0 has pretty much bottomed out. It will be contract tracing that is needed to drive it down further.

Slightly off on a tangent, this thread is pretty incredible:

https://twitter.com/michaelvkim/status/1258987354934538248?s=21



See my edit on my last post on that issue.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2127 on: May 10, 2020, 10:17:27 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.

Professor John Edmunds indicated in his evidence to the Select Committee that it was already on the way back up, this was mainly due to care homes and hospitals, they are also a source of continued community spread (care homes are 0.75% of the population, so they couldn’t influence the overall R0 substantially). Then we had what Boris said at PMQs and the press being briefed about today, leading to the ‘Freedom’ headlines. There’s no doubt the lockdown has been less stringent since. There’s a chance the community R0 was pretty much as low as it was going to get on lockdown lite.

https://twitter.com/commonsstc/status/1258441468110270464?s=21

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/dont-buy-the-lockdown-lie-this-is-a-government-of-business-as-usual/

I get the point about care homes adding to the R but surely as testing etc improves, the rate of infection starts to drop. Maybe that would take longer than 2 weeks.

One other quick point, if as you say community R was pretty much as low as it is going to get, then there is no ideal time to start reducing lockdown. By that logic, now is as good a time as any to start loosening it or do we wait another week, month, year whilst the economy gets trashed even more?
(It’s a question not a statement).

The argument would be for a far more comprehensive lockdown but that won’t happen, so what we need is a very effective contact tracing programme. I can’t see a sensible way out in the near future without a huge spike in deaths/illness/lifelong illness.
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Doobs
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« Reply #2128 on: May 10, 2020, 10:27:20 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.


Why would R have risen if we had continued with lockdown?

It is the rate of infection per person.  Having less people infected doesn't change that.  Having people wandering round does.  Given more people wandering round by the week means that R was naturally increasing even if number of infected was falling

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RickBFA
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« Reply #2129 on: May 10, 2020, 10:27:54 PM »

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.

Professor John Edmunds indicated in his evidence to the Select Committee that it was already on the way back up, this was mainly due to care homes and hospitals, they are also a source of continued community spread (care homes are 0.75% of the population, so they couldn’t influence the overall R0 substantially). Then we had what Boris said at PMQs and the press being briefed about today, leading to the ‘Freedom’ headlines. There’s no doubt the lockdown has been less stringent since. There’s a chance the community R0 was pretty much as low as it was going to get on lockdown lite.

https://twitter.com/commonsstc/status/1258441468110270464?s=21

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/dont-buy-the-lockdown-lie-this-is-a-government-of-business-as-usual/

I get the point about care homes adding to the R but surely as testing etc improves, the rate of infection starts to drop. Maybe that would take longer than 2 weeks.

One other quick point, if as you say community R was pretty much as low as it is going to get, then there is no ideal time to start reducing lockdown. By that logic, now is as good a time as any to start loosening it or do we wait another week, month, year whilst the economy gets trashed even more?
(It’s a question not a statement).

The argument would be for a far more comprehensive lockdown but that won’t happen, so what we need is a very effective contact tracing programme. I can’t see a sensible way out in the near future without a huge spike in deaths/illness/lifelong illness.

It appears therefore that any Government would be between a rock and a hard place.

Whether it’s someone you consider smart, like Sturgeon, who you have praised or your pal “Dipshit”.

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