COVID19

[kukushkin88]

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

My understanding is r is the rate the virus is passed to others.

Logically, if we had maintained tight lockdown conditions the known rate of infection could have dropped further over say an additional 2 week period?
Isn’t that the point of lockdown to reduce the rate of infection?

As we loosen lockdown the rate of infection may well rise. As an example, they reckon opening all schools would add 0.2 to R.

I may be misunderstanding the whole basis of lockdown.

Professor John Edmunds indicated in his evidence to the Select Committee that it was already on the way back up, this was mainly due to care homes and hospitals, they are also a source of continued community spread (care homes are 0.75% of the population, so they couldn’t influence the overall R0 substantially). Then we had what Boris said at PMQs and the press being briefed about today, leading to the ‘Freedom’ headlines. There’s no doubt the lockdown has been less stringent since. There’s a chance the community R0 was pretty much as low as it was going to get on lockdown lite.

https://twitter.com/commonsstc/status/1258441468110270464?s=21

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/dont-buy-the-lockdown-lie-this-is-a-government-of-business-as-usual/

I get the point about care homes adding to the R but surely as testing etc improves, the rate of infection starts to drop. Maybe that would take longer than 2 weeks.

One other quick point, if as you say community R was pretty much as low as it is going to get, then there is no ideal time to start reducing lockdown. By that logic, now is as good a time as any to start loosening it or do we wait another week, month, year whilst the economy gets trashed even more?
(It’s a question not a statement).

The argument would be for a far more comprehensive lockdown but that won’t happen, so what we need is a very effective contact tracing programme. I can’t see a sensible way out in the near future without a huge spike in deaths/illness/lifelong illness.

It appears therefore that any Government would be between a rock and a hard place.

Whether it’s someone you consider smart, like Sturgeon, who you have praised or your pal “Dipshit”.

I’ve only praised Sturgeon for the clarity and honesty of her comms.

[arbboy]

When's Woodsey back anyway?   Let's get onto the more important stuff in the world.

[RickBFA]

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

Why would R have risen if we had continued with lockdown?

It is the rate of infection per person.  Having less people infected doesn't change that.  Having people wandering round does.  Given more people wandering round by the week means that R was naturally increasing even if number of infected was falling

can't explain more, Sunday big poker night

That makes sense, I suppose if we maintain R at say 0.7, it doesn’t have to fall further for the virus to run out of steam.

So I get that maintaining and not necessarily reducing R further (if it’s under 1) is effective.

It also true to say that lockdown and probably as importantly social distancing measures do reduce R initially.  

And on my 2 week point, if lockdown/distancing/better testing/improving care home conditions etc work then we could theoretically see R fall further.

[Doobs]

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

Why would R have risen if we had continued with lockdown?

It is the rate of infection per person.  Having less people infected doesn't change that.  Having people wandering round does.  Given more people wandering round by the week means that R was naturally increasing even if number of infected was falling

can't explain more, Sunday big poker night

That makes sense, I suppose if we maintain R at say 0.7, it doesn’t have to fall further for the virus to run out of steam.

So I get that maintaining and not necessarily reducing R further (if it’s under 1) is effective.

It also true to say that lockdown and probably as importantly social distancing measures do reduce R initially.  

And on my 2 week point, if lockdown/distancing/better testing/improving care home conditions etc work then we could theoretically see R fall further.

Yeah, something like that.

I think R in the community is likely above its lows.  Maybe R in hospitals and cars homes might be falling because of better PPE/more people with "immunity" ETC.  It is hard to tell and a very difficult balancing act.  My brother is in New Zealand and contrary to reports they still have some restictions despite very few cases in the whole country.

[Marky147]

When's Woodsey back anyway?   Let's get onto the more important stuff in the world.

Probably picking up and moving to SEA

[StuartHopkin]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

 

[kukushkin88]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

It’s hard to find a way that we’re not top of the European deaths on all known info, with another bad set of data incoming tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1258031311366901761?s=21

The fact that we are behind the other countries means the picture will worsen for us, then factor in that we had more warning than any of them and acted later and it’s hard to say we’re doing ok. We have massively higher rates of new infections (% of all tests that are positive) than anywhere else that has released lockdown, including the crazy US states.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though, let’s wait and see how it plays out, as per my ‘Dipshit Double’ post. If they can be at the top table for both percentage increase in all cause mortality in Europe and percentage contraction of the economy in the G20, that would be extraordinary. For now, all we can say is that they are perfectly placed.

[kukushkin88]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

Once we consider the enormity of the numbers who have died in the U.K., without even being considered for hospital treatment, then we can’t call the NHS not being overwhelmed a success. Not an easy problem to resolve, not a success of any kind.

[TightEnd]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

 

they sent people back to care homes to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. Shifted the worst point of the crisis back into a vulnerable part of the community, and haven't got a grip of that since.

It has been far more failure than success on most levels, from initial reaction to flirting with herd immunity to absence of track and trace to testing and PPE problems and now botching the communication of the move into the next phase

[nirvana]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

 

Well, I agree with you :-) but I'm quite bias. Out of interest, is your contact an NHS employee or some other civil servant involved in the process ?

[Jon MW]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

It’s hard to find a way that we’re not top of the European deaths on all known info, with another bad set of data incoming tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1258031311366901761?s=21

The fact that we are behind the other countries means the picture will worsen for us, then factor in that we had more warning than any of them and acted later and it’s hard to say we’re doing ok. We have massively higher rates of new infections (% of all tests that are positive) than anywhere else that has released lockdown, including the crazy US states.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though, let’s wait and see how it plays out, as per my ‘Dipshit Double’ post. If they can be at the top table for both percentage increase in all cause mortality in Europe and percentage contraction of the economy in the G20, that would be extraordinary. For now, all we can say is that they are perfectly placed.

I'm still not sure what he is doing with his numbers.

I had a (quick) look at the ONS figures and just for April I counted 'about' 35,000 excess deaths and 'about' 26,500 have been linked to COVID19. That's already a higher figure than what he states is allocated to COVID19 for the whole of March and April. As said before, the maths he's doing is almost certainly correct - it's a lot less clear what parameters he's using.

I also thought that's not what the question was about.

If you look at the richest earning countries, and countries with the highest number of international travellers - there's a pretty good correlation with how much coronavirus trouble they're having.

They're not causative but they're both linked to the idea of connectivity - the  more connected a country is the worse a pandemic is going to hit it (as always Germany is an outlier in all of this).

The effectiveness of policy shouldn't be based on how many deaths occur compared with other countries, they should be compared with what would have happened with (a) if we'd done nothing and (b) if we'd done the perfect response.

Both of these things are obviously only numbers that can be estimated/guessed at - but that's what you're trying to get close to rather than trying to 'beat' other countries.

[Pokerpops]

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?

 

they sent people back to care homes to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. Shifted the worst point of the crisis back into a vulnerable part of the community, and haven't got a grip of that since.

It has been far more failure than success on most levels, from initial reaction to flirting with herd immunity to absence of track and trace to testing and PPE problems and now botching the communication of the move into the next phase

Which ‘they’ are you referring to here?
NHS Managers at a National/Regional/Trust level
Hospital Managers
Ward Sisters
COBRA
The Cabinet
Boris and unnamed co-defendants
SAGE

[TightEnd]

logically, NHS Managers. Where the decision came from and whether it was appropriate is one for the 2022-23 Public Enquiry.

[Doobs]

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

This is really good, it goes through how Covid spreads.   It isn't political, just good science.

Worth a read if you are planing om going out for a sing song when we reopen or work in a noisy environment. 
 

[nirvana]

logically, NHS Managers. Where the decision came from and whether it was appropriate is one of the 2022-23 Public Enquiry.

Better than 'they' or indeed other assertions like 'chaotic messaging' or 'botching'.

Worth trying to be more specific than be a headline writer for a tabloid or a Twitter commentator.

Saw a good tweet yesterday that the new Twitter way of claiming your intellectual superiority seems to be claiming to be confused by everything. Thousands of people claiming they don't get it - er, that makes you thick, not clever.