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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 167513 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #3900 on: March 02, 2021, 03:06:08 PM »

JC going through real world vaccine data here, and looks all good.



Is it summer yet?
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Marky147
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« Reply #3901 on: March 02, 2021, 05:24:01 PM »

Twitter police got me - 12 hours in the cells Cheesy
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Doobs
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« Reply #3902 on: March 02, 2021, 06:00:42 PM »

Twitter police got me - 12 hours in the cells Cheesy

Hope you were giving Ivor a hard time
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« Reply #3903 on: March 02, 2021, 06:10:22 PM »

Twitter police got me - 12 hours in the cells Cheesy

Hope you were giving Ivor a hard time

Only mentioned him. I had to delete it, so as to only serve 12 hours Cheesy

https://twitter.com/braidedmanga/status/1366795880326651909


@braidedmanga She should be strung up, along with the likes of Yeadon, Cummins, Smalley, and all the other grifters printing money on the back of this.



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Doobs
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« Reply #3904 on: March 03, 2021, 04:54:50 PM »


Some good news this week, but some worrying signs.

Firstly vaccinations. I guess there must be some supply issues, but vaccination numbers seem to be dropping noticeably right now.  The latest figures over the last week of figures are down about 25% on average.  I can't really add much, as I can't recall seeing any explanation (I haven't read much this week, as I was a bit relaxed about how we were going).

Cases:  The cases numbers are not dropping as much as I expected either.  For the last couple of weeks I have been expecting us to drop below 10,000 cases a day. but up until yesterday, we have only really been doing so at the weekend.  Cases seem to be falling by only around 10% a week now, which doesn't seem nearly enough to be comfortable.  I checked and there hasn't been a noticeable increase in testing, and as more lateral flow tests are now in place, you'd expect positives to fall on unchanged testing numbers (lateral flow tests are less sensitive).  Up until today, I was looking at the opening up roadmap and not really thinking there was likely to be much of an issue, now I am not sure.  Hopefully the vaccination levels can step up again in the next week or so.

Hospitalisations and deaths are still falling noticeably.  Deaths are still falling by 30% or so a week, which is very positive.  The vaccinations should keep this number falling significantly week on week.  Hospitalisations are likely to fall more slowly if cases don't start dropping at faster rates again. 

I don't do many Sweden updates, but their cases are rising again, and I don't think their deaths haven't been falling as rapidly as ours (the data lag is bad there).  You'd almost think they had found nirvana reading some people's tweets.  I don't know what we can learn from this.  The people of Sweden aren't entirely free right now either, but don't have vaccination rates as high as ours, and there is bound to be some seasonality in cases/deaths.  Their numbers must still be a bit of a worry though, given we are expecting to be heading into the end of all restrictions in a few months.

I think we just have to wait and see right now.  Maybe next week will be more positive again.  I am still quite positive, just not as positive as I was a few days ago.   


I think last week was just a bit of a blip. Lots of good news again from the UK this week.

I look a week back with deaths, but in the 7 days up until then deaths were falling an average of 40% over the previous week down to just over 200 a day.  So the reduction is still increasing in percentage terms.  Note that the chart in the Telegraph is incorrect as they have used some incomplete death data.  Deaths are falling quickly, just not that quickly.

Hospitalisations are now down to around 1,000 a day from 4,000 at wave 2 peak.  If anything this is better news than deaths, as there was a worry that hospitilisations wouldn't fall so quickly as middle aged people can still suffer long hospitalisations even if they are less likely to die than the elderly.  The total number of Covid patients in hospital is now down almost 70% from the peak, so people are leaving hospital too.

Cases was my worry last week, but having been worried that they were struggling to get below 10k a day last week, we are now seeing numbers close to half of that.

Vaccinations have picked up a bit too from last week's dip.  Hopefully there won't be much fall off in the pace from now on.

So all good news this week in the UK, shame Carl Heneghan is back posting regularly now cases are getting low again, it is almost like the last couple of months didn't happen. 

Away from the UK, a lot of countries aren't doing nearly as well, but am not going there. 

It is all pretty optimistic for us, and I don't see the UK having to extend its reopening schedule and nearly all the pressure is going to be on opening up sooner. 


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Marky147
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« Reply #3905 on: March 03, 2021, 05:26:55 PM »

Happy days are soon here again!

Great write-up, Doobs  Cool
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« Reply #3906 on: March 04, 2021, 03:46:31 PM »

Ian Brown strikes again, really going full on tin hat brigade. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-56278140

The Government haven't even confirmed that "vaccine passports" are needed yet, so he is pulling out because they theoretically might be needed?

Sad times for The Stone Roses, they were never much of a live band anyway, even though they are legends for their first album.  I don't think I'd ever have bought a ticket to watch him do his solo stuff anyway, especially if his future is performing with Right Said Fred, Van Morrison, and that bloke from The Corrs.  Imagine the Icke Family popping up at the interval to talk about the Lizard masters too(no offence if you are reading this our superior cold blooded leaders).

By contrast, James have always been a great live band, right up there with the very best.  Stlll have fond memories of seeing The Stone Roses when they were in their pomp though.
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« Reply #3907 on: March 04, 2021, 04:12:21 PM »

Saw that, lol. Obv trying to run a bluff and got snapped off Cheesy

Fairbrass is definitely deeply dippy.

He aligns well with the noisiest in the anti-vax brigade, who only like their drugs from people at house parties or nights out.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3908 on: March 04, 2021, 05:52:34 PM »



Tim Spector pretty well aligned with you today, Doobs.
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Doobs
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« Reply #3909 on: March 07, 2021, 11:03:47 AM »

Hey Marky, Dr John has headed off down the Ivermectin rabbit hole.  I did look up some of the studies the other week and am not nearly so convinced.  I will probably put something together tomorrow, as haven't got the time now.  It may well have some effect, but the success rates claimed are based on some fairly flakey studies in my view.
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« Reply #3910 on: March 07, 2021, 02:54:26 PM »

Yeah, when he spoke with the Canadian pharmacist about it, they went beserk in his comments, and all the usual types are convinced that it's the holy grail (not unlike Remdesivir, HCQ, Zinc, Vit D etc.).

My mate who thinks this is all fake, and all a big con has ordered a ton of it from India. If he's so sure it's a con, I'm not sure why he needs a load of that in the cupboard.

I've no time nor inclination to go into it, but I think Bill Gates has funded a massive trial. Tinfoil say it's so he can manipulate the trial to look useless, and keep injecting people with the DNA changer Cheesy

Had a quick look at the Dr he had on, and she is director of some company, which I presume is behind the push for it. She might be 100% kosher, so will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3911 on: March 07, 2021, 05:38:36 PM »

This is a good thread I saw via Stuart McDonald, on the 'we need to keep our immune systems strong', and 'lockdowns are why we're getting sick' type stuff.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1368125821035159553.html

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Marky147
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« Reply #3912 on: March 08, 2021, 04:54:19 PM »



More concise video with the breakdowns.

Be interesting to see how it plays out, once everything is out, as many of the people who provide really good info on Twitter are saying that the Ivermectin trials don't really show anything.
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« Reply #3913 on: March 08, 2021, 06:12:06 PM »

Marky, I am not sure I can watch another Doctor John videos, as I already watched a long one where he didn't appear to challenge her enough.

The Tess Lawrie rapid review is here

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348297284_Ivermectin_reduces_the_risk_of_death_from_COVID-19_-a_rapid_review_and_meta-analysis_in_support_of_the_recommendation_of_the_Front_Line_COVID-19_Critical_Care_Alliance_Latest_version_v12_-_6_Jan_2021

It seems to rely heavily on two studies due to those two having bigger sample sizes on deaths.

They are Elgazzar et al. here

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-100956/v3

and Niaee et al. here

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-109670/v1

Elgazzar shows 2 deaths from 200(Ivemectin) vs 20 deaths from 200(comparitor)

The thing that struck me in this one, is that the comparitor isn't a placebo, but is hydroxychloroquine.  The WHO found that hydroxychloroquine increased deaths vs a placebo, and this effect was worse for people with prior heart disease.  So that leapt out as not the same as comparing vs a neutral placebo.  Then I looked at the evidence, and Ischemic heart disease was present in 5 of the patients in the Ivermectin group and 12 of the patients in the hydroxychloroquine group.  So you should definitely worry about whether this was a fair comparison, and comparing 2 deaths in the Ivemectin group and 20 with a placebo is not correct.  But looking at the rapid review 2 and 20 are the numbers used.

The Iranian study (Niaee et al) seems to have better split of groups and claims to compare genuine placebos with Ivermectin.  There is definitely one weird thing in that only 50% of the placebo group had a positive PCR test vs 80% in the treatment groups.  I was left wondering how they diagnosed Covid (were many of this lot at deaths door so didn't need a test?) and why so many of them had then died (11 from 60 people, of which only 30 had positive Covid tests).  That is way higher than you'd expect from Covid given some of them were listed as mild and all were getting other treatments at the same time.  In addition a separate site lists this study as having a high risk of bias (see http://www.metaevidence.org/viewPathology2.aspx?exposition=684&comparator=649&pathology=87&domain=12).  This seems very much at odds with the Tess Lawrie conclusion that this study has a low risk of bias. 

A lot of the other studies are tiny, and I was left wondering if they would all have been published if they had shown that Ivermectin hadn't worked.  Were there another group of doctors who had looked into the effect, but found nothing or just witnessed deaths in their Ivermectin patients?  Presumably there is some survivorship bias in that only those who thought they had seen some positive effect from Ivermectin published anything? 

So in conclusion.

The evidence is nowhere near as comprehensive, or as convincing, as the studies into vaccine efficiacy. 
Ivemectin might well lead to an improved prognosis for Covid sufferers.
There seems to have been plenty of others who have reviewed this evidence and not made the same conclusions as to its reliability.
The often repeated recent claim of a 75% reduction in deaths seems very dubious.   The sample sizes of deaths are very small and the confidence intervals should be large, even if you accept these studies are all perfect.
I'd conclude that Ivemectin is worthy of further investigation and there are several ongoing trials, but do not think it is immoral to not treat people with Ivermectin (which was what Dr lawrie seemed to be claiming in the video I watched).   

It is odd that the very same people who deny the effectiveness of lockdowns and vaccines, despite much better evidence, are then happy to accept that Ivermectin (and usually Hydroxychloroquine) works.  It is good to be sceptical about the intentions of big corporations, but you have to be sceptical about of the alternative claims too.   

 
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« Reply #3914 on: March 08, 2021, 06:31:18 PM »

Think that one was just the main points from the long one, which I didn't watch either.

I wanted to try and find some stuff out about her, but I've had no time to do anything today Cheesy

He's spoken about it and been dubious a few times before, but the way she has put everything across has impressed him. I was sceptical, as unless you are convinced the lizards are trying to keep us all plotted up in the garden, if this thing was so good, it would be being used everywhere.

They had that Kory Scott in front of the senate before Xmas, and he was talking about how it's a miracle, a lifesaver etc.

Might well be a case of it being another vitamin d, though it would be highly advisable to not buy it from a veterinary website or random 3rd party sites Cheesy

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