COVID19

[Doobs]

The rate of reducton of Covid deaths has probably slowed a little, but there have been under 200 a day since the 26 February, so we are probably about 100 a day now in England when the data lag has gone.  We are getting to the level where there may be no excess deaths at all in the near future.  Marky posted something the other day which showed that a side effect of the Covid measures has been that a lot of other causes of deaths have reduced because of Covid reduction methods.  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68630.msg2288300#msg2288300.  In addition some Covid victims will clearly have been people that were near death already, so some of those people died in wave 1 who would have died anyway by year 2.  To balance this, there are likely to be more cancer deaths going forward because people were too scared to see their GPs and I assume we will see a significant increase in suicides recorded last year (albeit from a pretty low level).

Cases were about 6,000 a day this time last week, and are likely to be loess than 5,000 now.  I don't know what the effect will be of all these new lateral flow tests that will be perfomed on children.  Looking at yesterday's figures, testing has doubled in a week.  There is bound to be some effect on the number of positives.  My daughter's school has 2,000+ kids, so even if false positives are only 3 per 1,000 that is 6 positive tests in the school.  I don't want to cover that too much here, so will move on

Hospital admissions are now significantly below 1,000 a day, and nearer 600 now.  Now the total Covid population in hospitals is below 10,000, then it is probably safe to say that the NHS Covid crisis is no longer a Covid crisis.  The amount of postponed tests and operations are still going to mean the NHS is in crisis, just a different type of crisis for the next few months.

So lots of Covid good news this week again.

It has been soured a bit by this study I saw this morning.  This has just been announced by the BMJ this morning  https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579?
Remember some hoo-ha a month or so ago, when people "preamturely" speculated that the new UK variant could be associated with higher mortality, well it seems it is.
Of the 54 906 participants in the S gene negative arm, an average of 227 deaths occurred compared with 141 of 54 906 in the S gene positive arm (hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.04; P<0.001)

That means you are roughly 60% more likely to die of the new variant than the old one, but there is some uncertainty (it could be 30% to 100%).  Also, those included in the study are younger lives on average than the average Covid death, so the mortality increase may not be across all ages.  Either way, the vaccination program seems to have happened at a very good time for the UK.  Other countries with the UK, or similar variants, will not be so lucky.
   

More solid progress this week.

English covid deaths a week ago are currently reported as 91, so even with late reports have probably dipped below 100 a day.  Given they are still falling by 30%/40% a week, then if they weren't below 100 a week ago, they will have been the day after.

UK hospitalisations are falling by about 25% a week and were less than 600 this time last week, so probably about 400 a day now.  There are now only 7,000 Covid patients in hospital (peak was near 40,000) with less than 1,000 on a ventilator (peak was over 4.000)

Cases have remained at about 5,000 a day.  A lot of this must be down to all the testing of children with tests that aren't so accurate, so will just see how we move from here.  I read PCR testing positivity has fallen to 2.5% which is a long way from the peak, so I have no worries here.

On vaccinations, I have run good.  I read this morning that over 50s can now sign up, and I thought I'd rather just get it done, rather than waiting for my GP to get in touch.  So I signed up this morning, and this afternoon they stopped any new sign ups as there are going to be supply issues.  I am a week on Monday.  Wierd really, as they had been talking earlier this week about accelearting the number of vaccinations in the next couple of weeks, and the numbers have moved up in the past few days. 

So all good, and it can't be long before we are back to near normal.

[Marky147]

Good news, and even John thinks we might actually get rid of it in a few seasons, rather than it hanging around forever, like Flu.

Last year I said 2022 to my mate, who keeps telling me it's the cabal, and Bill etc.

We have a back and forth every few weeks, when he tells me he cannot believe I'm this stupid, and believe all this is real. I concede I'm certainly stupid, but that has nothing to do with this

I wind him up a bit, then remind him in a few years when we're in Vegas, whoever was wrong is buying dinner, while the other gloats for eternity.

[Doobs]

Some bad news, looks like some of Ivor's best work is getting erased from history. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1372144297643028482

Am frankly appalled that this may mean those who donated to his film projects may have wasted their money.

Good news, you can now donate to Tess Lawrie's Ivermectin gofundme instead.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-us-get-lifesaving-drug-approved-for-covid19?

Please review the destination of the funds raised before you do.

[Marky147]

The mug that put that up will delete it when he realises it hurts his hero.

Donate to Tess' relative? Lovely.

[Doobs]

The mug that put that up will delete it when he realises it hurts his hero.

Donate to Tess' relative? Lovely.

Money goes towards



Dr. Lawrie and her team need to do further work to educate health professionals and politicians as quickly as possible to avoid further unnecessary loss of life and improve health outcomes for covid survivors.

Your donations will go towards the following expenses:

- E-BMC running costs
- Public education and awareness
- Expert opinion fees
- Planning a trial of ivermectin to treat long-covid
- Other expenses, e.g. application costs

To be fair, you earn far more buying a house next to Matt Hancock.

[Marky147]

Nice work if you can get it...

[Doobs]

Tim Spector did an update yesterday.



Cliffs
Zoe App showing cases have levelled off over the last few days. 
May even be rising in Scotland, Wales and North East. 
May be because schools have gome back. 
He is not expecting much of an increase and we are still in a good place as cases are so low.  4k vs 80k at peak on his app.

[Marky147]

Were always going to go up, but shatters the arguments of the smileys, and the 'they're all false positive' idiots.

I see Toby Young retweeting some article from his site yesterday 'Devastating Study by Hart group'

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1372682243894870017

His followers don't seem to be as supportive as Ivor's

[Marky147]

Do come across some small and good accounts via the loons, though.

https://twitter.com/Aw_what/status/1372209739778695172

Interesting read on 'Yeadon Campaign / PCR Claims'

[Doobs]

Were always going to go up, but shatters the arguments of the smileys, and the 'they're all false positive' idiots.

I see Toby Young retweeting some article from his site yesterday 'Devastating Study by Hart group'

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1372682243894870017

His followers don't seem to be as supportive as Ivor's

It is a toss up between Joel Smalley and Clare Path who is worse at analysing data, but they are both on the data team at Hart.


Joel Smalley
@RealJoelSmalley
The correlation between increased COVID with vaccinations is substantially stronger than reduced COVID with lockdowns. But, the narrative...
9:39 AM · Mar 19, 2021·Twitter Web App
165


As shown below

[Marky147]

I remember seeing something about Smalley deleting all of his tweets from last summer, which I'm guessing would be around the time things started kicking off again.

Hard to understand what Craig's MO is, as it doesn't seem she's making any documentaries, or trying to run her Patreon up, like Dr Cummins.

[Doobs]

I remember seeing something about Smalley deleting all of his tweets from last summer, which I'm guessing would be around the time things started kicking off again.

Hard to understand what Craig's MO is, as it doesn't seem she's making any documentaries, or trying to run her Patreon up, like Dr Cummins.

No idea really, I think she is a genuine pathogist, but just really terrible at maths. 

A lot of people just seem to have got locked in to their positions and carry on that path whatever the evidence shows. 

[Marky147]

I suppose when so many want to believe you're right, it's easy to just laud the plaudits and keep bowling along.

Some stay on their path, and some veer wildly into Ickeology, like Ivor.

[RickBFA]

This AZ vaccine stuff in France is getting weird.

First it was it’s not safe for over 65’s

Then it was we’ll suspend it for everyone

Now it’s not safe for under 55’s.

They seem to be making this shit up as they go along.

Meanwhile their people are losing their lives and health system struggling to cope.

Just nuts.

[Doobs]

I suppose when so many want to believe you're right, it's easy to just laud the plaudits and keep bowling along.

Some stay on their path, and some veer wildly into Ickeology, like Ivor.

I have been missing Ivor since hiils videos started disappearing.  Luckily his old record label seens to be releasing a greatest hits combo.

https://mobile.twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1373045522026659845