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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 167247 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #3870 on: February 24, 2021, 11:45:40 PM »

Said in a few places it was an expected delay in supply, but expect to return to normal levels, and even above as we head into March.
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nirvana
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« Reply #3871 on: February 25, 2021, 12:13:07 AM »


Mostly good news again.

Firtly some bad news to get past.  The CMI have released their latest report and deaths were still 47% higher than expected a couple of weeks ago(this was age adjusted).  The good news is that was down on the week before, but their age adjusted figures are now showing over 100k exceess deaths in total, so I don't think there is much of an argument that at least 100,000 peole have died of Covid in the UK now).

On to all the good news.

Last week, cases were in the range 10k to 15k for the whole of the UK, right now they are very much about to go through 10k, so I think next week we'll see a string of reported cases in 4 figures.

The trend in deaths has been much more negative, with rates now falling by about 30% a week.  Deaths were probably below 500 a day in England this time last week.  There may still be some lag in that number, but the number today is probably very close to the level where lockdown 2 ended.  Some of this effect is likely due to vaccinations now, as the trend in the reduction is accelerating, and over half the deaths have been in the over 80s.

Hospitalisations are falling too, but slower than deaths.  The hospitalisation rate has fallen from 4k a day to 1.5k a day for the whole UK, but there are still 21k Covid patients in hospital (peak was near 40K).

ICU is where we are seeing the slowest reductions.  There are now 2,800 patients on ventilators, which is down from 4k at peak.

This is all in line with some predictions the actuaries response group made some time ago.  Cases fall most rapidly, followed by deaths, hospitalisations and finally ICU beds.  This may not be obvious, but it is due to middle aged people still having a fairly significant hospitalisation rate even if deaths amongst that group aren't that high.  Models can still be pretty good at this stuff (Hi Ivor).

We are now over 15m vaccinations too, and I still think the numbers are brilliant each week when I see them. 

Away from the UK figures, some of the Scottish figures are realeased quicker than those that are UK wide, in particular the deaths by age group.  There appears to be a noticeable falling off in mortality amongst the over 80s and those in care homes in Scotland.  Deaths in care homes in Scotland are now showing below average for the time of year.  I expect some of that will be data lag, but that is still remarkable.  I think it must be clear by now that this is down to vaccination (rather than HcQ, Zinc and split seasonality curves or whatever it was Ivor was claiming, but maybe there was a heat wave last week?)

https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1362036927294279687       



Some good news this week, but some worrying signs.

Firstly vaccinations. I guess there must be some supply issues, but vaccination numbers seem to be dropping noticeably right now.  The latest figures over the last week of figures are down about 25% on average.  I can't really add much, as I can't recall seeing any explanation (I haven't read much this week, as I was a bit relaxed about how we were going).

Cases:  The cases numbers are not dropping as much as I expected either.  For the last couple of weeks I have been expecting us to drop below 10,000 cases a day. but up until yesterday, we have only really been doing so at the weekend.  Cases seem to be falling by only around 10% a week now, which doesn't seem nearly enough to be comfortable.  I checked and there hasn't been a noticeable increase in testing, and as more lateral flow tests are now in place, you'd expect positives to fall on unchanged testing numbers (lateral flow tests are less sensitive).  Up until today, I was looking at the opening up roadmap and not really thinking there was likely to be much of an issue, now I am not sure.  Hopefully the vaccination levels can step up again in the next week or so.

Hospitalisations and deaths are still falling noticeably.  Deaths are still falling by 30% or so a week, which is very positive.  The vaccinations should keep this number falling significantly week on week.  Hospitalisations are likely to fall more slowly if cases don't start dropping at faster rates again. 

I don't do many Sweden updates, but their cases are rising again, and I don't think their deaths haven't been falling as rapidly as ours (the data lag is bad there).  You'd almost think they had found nirvana reading some people's tweets.  I don't know what we can learn from this.  The people of Sweden aren't entirely free right now either, but don't have vaccination rates as high as ours, and there is bound to be some seasonality in cases/deaths.  Their numbers must still be a bit of a worry though, given we are expecting to be heading into the end of all restrictions in a few months.

I think we just have to wait and see right now.  Maybe next week will be more positive again.  I am still quite positive, just not as positive as I was a few days ago.   

Should reasonably expect the correlation between cases and hospitalisations to shift somewhat in the coming weeks so that numbers of cases don't represent as much of a concern.
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vegaslover
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« Reply #3872 on: February 25, 2021, 08:51:32 AM »

They have got tougher on turning people away who have booked vaccines via the links given to staff. Most the vulnerable groups are now done, the next batch are receiving letters with dates and times that they may not be able to attend.
When you used the govt link you could pick a day/time that suited you.
Despite that govt are being very cagey on supply issues.
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« Reply #3873 on: February 25, 2021, 10:42:17 AM »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/23/number-of-uk-covid-vaccinations-falls-by-a-third-as-vaccine-supply-dips

Supply issues, but vaccinations should pick up again in a couple of weeks.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3874 on: February 25, 2021, 04:45:53 PM »



Good news on the jabs.
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mikeymike2
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« Reply #3875 on: February 25, 2021, 04:52:21 PM »

We have a friend who lives in Wales in the countryside - she was taken by a friend by car to a drive through vaccine centre - she is in the vulnerable group - but interestingly they also vaccinated her friend and apparently because they have ample vaccine they were offering it to all the drivers irrelevant of age who had brought a person with them. Makes sense
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Marky147
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« Reply #3876 on: February 25, 2021, 05:57:06 PM »



Tim Spector update.
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Doobs
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« Reply #3877 on: February 27, 2021, 12:50:23 AM »

Vaccine effect very clear in the over 80s

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1365342360234778632



and the Covid Actuaries have won an award, Ivor must be seething

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1365209690586685441

They found far too many good people to ever bother me.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3878 on: February 27, 2021, 01:25:47 AM »

I'm sure he's happier that he has found a couple thousand people who pay him to hang on his every word.

Not had a look for a couple days, but it looks like he's going full conspiratard now, unless I'm mistaken.

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1364976930781560833


Is he suggesting they're trying to kill people with the vaccines, so they don't have to spend money down the line?

Or have I got the wrong end of the stick.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3879 on: February 27, 2021, 01:52:57 AM »

Enlightening thread on that Stato Guy https://twitter.com/Alberto53254527/status/1364864288863776768
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Doobs
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« Reply #3880 on: February 27, 2021, 10:06:37 AM »

I'm sure he's happier that he has found a couple thousand people who pay him to hang on his every word.

Not had a look for a couple days, but it looks like he's going full conspiratard now, unless I'm mistaken.

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1364976930781560833


Is he suggesting they're trying to kill people with the vaccines, so they don't have to spend money down the line?

Or have I got the wrong end of the stick.

I don't like him, but I don't think he meant that.

But he is massively wrong on the maths:

This is a short term study for a few weeks not long after vaccine so:

the vaccine effect won't be at its strongest, so some people will not be fully protected

some people are likely to have caught Covid prior to vaccination

looking at lives saved over a few weeks is not the same as looking at lives saved over a lifetime.

In addition, his estimated vaccine cost is too high for Pfizer and massively exaggerated if we include Astra Zeneca too

So his estimate of the cost of one life saved is massively exaggerated, just like it was last time he did it.  It is almost as if he is deliberately misinforming people for cash, over and again.
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« Reply #3881 on: February 27, 2021, 10:25:26 AM »


Jon appears to have deleted his account.  I don't know if his Instagram still exists.  I think it was glaringly obvious he wasn't really a statistician, given his lack of understanding of some key concepts.  I am pretty sure there were a few other occasions where he had, more or less, said he was a civil servant; and there were many times he posted some pretty right wing stuff.  

Presumably his "work" will live on, as that Daily Mail will be keeping that bullshit graph on its site?

Edit.  Instagram gone too

https://www.instagram.com/statisticsguy2020/

« Last Edit: February 27, 2021, 10:49:09 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #3882 on: February 27, 2021, 03:03:07 PM »

So my friend is obsessed with how the Swedish Corona strategy has crushed the strategy of other countries in Western Europe. He is really going down with the ship on this one.

At this point i am pretty much done with talking to him about it, but i see lots of links posted on here and people talking about Sweden in the past months.

Anybody got a link or two with a comprehensive summary of the subject from solid sources, publications that i can just send to him. Surely it is widely acknowledged by now that the Swedish method was a mistake? But i am no expert of course.
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EvilPie
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« Reply #3883 on: February 27, 2021, 03:20:36 PM »

So my friend is obsessed with how the Swedish Corona strategy has crushed the strategy of other countries in Western Europe. He is really going down with the ship on this one.

At this point i am pretty much done with talking to him about it, but i see lots of links posted on here and people talking about Sweden in the past months.

Anybody got a link or two with a comprehensive summary of the subject from solid sources, publications that i can just send to him. Surely it is widely acknowledged by now that the Swedish method was a mistake? But i am no expert of course.

Was it a mistake or just a different way of f**king everyone up?

I've not followed it at all but I can't imagine their deaths are top of the league table are they?

If they are they definitely weren't at some stage so it's just a shift in how quickly everyone gets killed off.

This is just a guess based on nothing factual whatsoever. Please don't shout at me if I'm wrong..... I'm not claiming to be right....
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Ironside
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« Reply #3884 on: February 27, 2021, 03:55:24 PM »

So my friend is obsessed with how the Swedish Corona strategy has crushed the strategy of other countries in Western Europe. He is really going down with the ship on this one.

At this point i am pretty much done with talking to him about it, but i see lots of links posted on here and people talking about Sweden in the past months.

Anybody got a link or two with a comprehensive summary of the subject from solid sources, publications that i can just send to him. Surely it is widely acknowledged by now that the Swedish method was a mistake? But i am no expert of course.

Was it a mistake or just a different way of f**king everyone up?

I've not followed it at all but I can't imagine their deaths are top of the league table are they?

If they are they definitely weren't at some stage so it's just a shift in how quickly everyone gets killed off.

This is just a guess based on nothing factual whatsoever. Please don't shout at me if I'm wrong..... I'm not claiming to be right....


there deaths are 10x higher than Norway denmark and finland but as the nordic countries are smaller and more spread out they are still below the more densely populated countries
there government and top medical people said back in november/december that they had messed up and introduced some extra distancing measures
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