COVID19

[nirvana]

I was listening to a news report on BBC from France today.

It seems they only count hospital deaths for the virus.

Dozens have died in care/nursing homes but not included in the figures.

Seems very weird, Kush would not be impressed if the UK was reporting on that basis.

We are atm. Apparently we are changing that from tomorrow.

We should be reporting all the known virus deaths as accurately as possible. I guess this is another problem when comparing countries figures when they aren’t on a like for like basis.

It seemed today the media were starting to ask why our numbers don’t make sense. If someone is manipulating the numbers, it’s someone with a poor grasp of what exponential means.

No one is manipulating the numbers, reporting may be crap but unlikely they are being deliberately manipulated to portray something completely different to the reality. It's completely pointless in an open democracy and there is enough other data and analysis to show a reasonable range of likely trends. Everyone knows loads more are going to die, exactly as the Government has said, and fiddling around the edges isn't going to save anyone's career if we can later conclude we were too complacent.

The manipulation of 'numbers' if any is from those with an axe to grind speculating why the numbers don't look as bad as they'd like them to look.

[kukushkin88]

I was listening to a news report on BBC from France today.

It seems they only count hospital deaths for the virus.

Dozens have died in care/nursing homes but not included in the figures.

Seems very weird, Kush would not be impressed if the UK was reporting on that basis.

We are atm. Apparently we are changing that from tomorrow.

We should be reporting all the known virus deaths as accurately as possible. I guess this is another problem when comparing countries figures when they aren’t on a like for like basis.

It seemed today the media were starting to ask why our numbers don’t make sense. If someone is manipulating the numbers, it’s someone with a poor grasp of what exponential means.

No one is manipulating the numbers, reporting may be crap but unlikely they are being deliberately manipulated to portray something completely different to the reality. It's completely pointless in an open democracy and there is enough other data and analysis to show a reasonable range of likely trends. Everyone knows loads more are going to die, exactly as the Government has said, and fiddling around the edges isn't going to save anyone's career if we can later conclude we were too complacent.

The manipulation of 'numbers' if any is from those with an axe to grind speculating why the numbers don't look as bad as they'd like them to look.

The first paragraph might well be sensible (if we’re on a doubling every 8+ days curve, then we’re doing something pretty remarkable and should share it with the rest of the world sharpish). The second paragraph is complete nonsense, certainly from my POV, I can’t speak for others of course but I doubt you are actually saying that there are people hoping for as many deaths as possible. I genuinely wouldn’t/don’t put my interests first but restarting my cancer treatment is dependent on bringing this under control.

[nirvana]

I was listening to a news report on BBC from France today.

It seems they only count hospital deaths for the virus.

Dozens have died in care/nursing homes but not included in the figures.

Seems very weird, Kush would not be impressed if the UK was reporting on that basis.

We are atm. Apparently we are changing that from tomorrow.

We should be reporting all the known virus deaths as accurately as possible. I guess this is another problem when comparing countries figures when they aren’t on a like for like basis.

It seemed today the media were starting to ask why our numbers don’t make sense. If someone is manipulating the numbers, it’s someone with a poor grasp of what exponential means.

No one is manipulating the numbers, reporting may be crap but unlikely they are being deliberately manipulated to portray something completely different to the reality. It's completely pointless in an open democracy and there is enough other data and analysis to show a reasonable range of likely trends. Everyone knows loads more are going to die, exactly as the Government has said, and fiddling around the edges isn't going to save anyone's career if we can later conclude we were too complacent.

The manipulation of 'numbers' if any is from those with an axe to grind speculating why the numbers don't look as bad as they'd like them to look.

The first paragraph might well be sensible (if we’re on a doubling every 8+ days curve, then we’re doing something pretty remarkable and should share it with the rest of the world sharpish). The second paragraph is complete nonsense, certainly from my POV, I can’t speak for others of course but I doubt you are actually saying that there are people hoping for as many deaths as possible. I genuinely wouldn’t/don’t put my interests first but restarting my cancer treatment is dependent on bringing this under control.

Do I think there are people hoping that loads will die to prove the Tories are heartless and got this completely wrong - er..yes. I don't think you are in that category

[Woodsey]

A lot of the usual whining trying to blame stuff on the Tories......no love for what will be the largest hospital in the world when it’s ready? NHS Nightingale 

[StuartHopkin]

Even if the numbers aren't manipulated they lend themselves to misleading headlines.

It is quite clear neither number is correct but the papers spewing about a glimmer of hope already is going to make the incoming increased lock down measures harder for certain members of the public to swallow.

[tonytats]

I was listening to a news report on BBC from France today.

It seems they only count hospital deaths for the virus.

Dozens have died in care/nursing homes but not included in the figures.

Seems very weird, Kush would not be impressed if the UK was reporting on that basis.

If you’re ever in a care / nursing home you’re probably 8 parts out of ten dead anyway
My mums twin sister 90 this year,
 according to her she’s poorly for the last 20 years
Been in a hone for the last 3 years this October £750/£800 a week west wales area
Thankfully she’s loaded so can pay
Ring her up to say hello it’s like speaking to a cross between dearth Vader and Lee Marvin
Just waiting to die
Years of smoking messed her up

[Jon MW]

Even if the numbers aren't manipulated they lend themselves to misleading headlines.

It is quite clear neither number is correct but the papers spewing about a glimmer of hope already is going to make the incoming increased lock down measures harder for certain members of the public to swallow.

It's incredibly annoying to see all the outlets do the same thing.

When the daily figures changed from 5 - 5 to 2 - 2 the government clearly stated it wasn't a whole day, and the actual period was pretty clear.

But it was still reported as being the numbers have got better, even by the BBC.
 

[RickBFA]

I was listening to a news report on BBC from France today.

It seems they only count hospital deaths for the virus.

Dozens have died in care/nursing homes but not included in the figures.

Seems very weird, Kush would not be impressed if the UK was reporting on that basis.

If you’re ever in a care / nursing home you’re probably 8 parts out of ten dead anyway
My mums twin sister 90 this year,
 according to her she’s poorly for the last 20 years
Been in a hone for the last 3 years this October £750/£800 a week west wales area
Thankfully she’s loaded so can pay
Ring her up to say hello it’s like speaking to a cross between dearth Vader and Lee Marvin
Just waiting to die
Years of smoking messed her up

That’s true, a lot of people who pass away when the virus will have died within a short period of time but if virus was the cause of death  (rather like flu days does) the figures should reflect that.

[kukushkin88]

Even if the numbers aren't manipulated they lend themselves to misleading headlines.

It is quite clear neither number is correct but the papers spewing about a glimmer of hope already is going to make the incoming increased lock down measures harder for certain members of the public to swallow.

It's incredibly annoying to see all the outlets do the same thing.

When the daily figures changed from 5 - 5 to 2 - 2 the government clearly stated it wasn't a whole day, and the actual period was pretty clear.

But it was still reported as being the numbers have got better, even by the BBC.
 

This is a bit more like it for getting sensible data:
(not updated yet for the critical period yet)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek112020.xls

[Jon MW]

Even if the numbers aren't manipulated they lend themselves to misleading headlines.

It is quite clear neither number is correct but the papers spewing about a glimmer of hope already is going to make the incoming increased lock down measures harder for certain members of the public to swallow.

It's incredibly annoying to see all the outlets do the same thing.

When the daily figures changed from 5 - 5 to 2 - 2 the government clearly stated it wasn't a whole day, and the actual period was pretty clear.

But it was still reported as being the numbers have got better, even by the BBC.
 

This is a bit more like it for getting sensible data:
(not updated yet for the critical period yet)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek112020.xls

It's all sensible data - the question is clarity and communication.

It is not normal to have to know these numbers on a daily basis.

It's not even like a war, which is an unusual situation but one where the numbers of casualties are usually quite clearly drawn out through the chain of command and can be communicated pretty clearly and easily.

They're having to put completely new procedures in place to get this information as fast as possible.

That's not to say communication and clarity couldn't be clearer - but I do appreciate it's a difficult job to get on top of.

[Doobs]

They are still only testing at roughly 7,000 tests a day.  It must be getting on for a week and a hal since there was any noticeable shift upwards in testing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/coronavirus-uk-labs-could-test-tens-of-thousands-more-people-says-expert

I don't think it matters what the daily target was or is, it is clear that we aren't doing enough right now.  The US was at our level not that long ago, and they have clearly ramped up their testing.

Every day they seem to talk about the expected increasing in testing, and every day it doesn't really move.  They quote Grant Shapps, and you read it, and realise it is just meaningless blather.  Yeah, there is a second type of testing, but you aren't doing that either.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, was asked whether the UK planned to move to mass testing at some point in order to end the lockdown.

He said it was important to increase testing for current cases of the virus but an antibody test was also important to let people know if they were immune after contracting the virus.

“Hugely increased testing is part of it, but there is a second type of testing which will be very significant when we get there, which is the antibody testing, which will tell us whether you have had it in the past. That will enable us to say you can come out of the lockdown.”

He said the global nature of the pandemic meant to scale up testing had been a “military operation”.

[Supernova]

Dropped Sophie of at Nottingham City Hospital at 7.15.
Sat in my car for the next 3 hours as I wasn't allowed on the ward.
10.30 met Sophie in the reception area and went through to theater.
11.20 they started and at 11.23 Frank Bertie Hopkin was born weighing 7lb and 15oz.
12.15 through to recovery and 13.00 they moved Sophie back to the ward so I had to leave.

Quite surreal but the majority of the staff were superb as always and everyone is healthy and should be home tomorrow.

Somethings cant be stopped in a lockdown. 

Congratulations both xXx

[kukushkin88]

Even if the numbers aren't manipulated they lend themselves to misleading headlines.

It is quite clear neither number is correct but the papers spewing about a glimmer of hope already is going to make the incoming increased lock down measures harder for certain members of the public to swallow.

It's incredibly annoying to see all the outlets do the same thing.

When the daily figures changed from 5 - 5 to 2 - 2 the government clearly stated it wasn't a whole day, and the actual period was pretty clear.

But it was still reported as being the numbers have got better, even by the BBC.
 

This is a bit more like it for getting sensible data:
(not updated yet for the critical period yet)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek112020.xls

It's all sensible data - the question is clarity and communication.

It is not normal to have to know these numbers on a daily basis.

It's not even like a war, which is an unusual situation but one where the numbers of casualties are usually quite clearly drawn out through the chain of command and can be communicated pretty clearly and easily.

They're having to put completely new procedures in place to get this information as fast as possible.

That's not to say communication and clarity couldn't be clearer - but I do appreciate it's a difficult job to get on top of.

So far all we have is that they were about 20% under by March 20, for reasons that are perfectly reasonable. I can’t think of a reason why this number will have gone down as a percentage since, there are reasons why it might have gone up.

I think for the purpose of the discussing the numbers, the problems need to be broken down in to at least 4 categories:

1. Incompetence in the face of a difficult task in the reporting bodies ( I have no problem with this, although they will be under enormous political pressure to push the big numbers as far away from the questions over why the government didn’t do anything as possible).
2. Incompetence and dishonesty in government
3. Incompetence and distortion in the media
4. Difficulty comprehending the data in the public (no problem with this either)

Forgot this: [url][https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-death-toll-higher-uk-hospitals-care-homes-office-national-statistics-a9437351.html/url]

[Doobs]

Do you geta ventilator?

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/490034-how-hospitals-will-decide-who-lives-and-who-dies-in-our-coronavirus-crisis

Do you want one?

https://www.facebook.com/DrKathrynMannix/posts/2949195348436749?__tn__=K-R

I can't really answer that one, but I do think it is unduly negative about ventilators.  You can survive intensive care and ventilators, and get back to a near normal life; well you could until covid-19 happened.  I wouldn't want a ventilator if it meant I was going to be a vegetable, but I'd also want one if there was a good chance of a reasonable life.   

[kukushkin88]

Do you geta ventilator?

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/490034-how-hospitals-will-decide-who-lives-and-who-dies-in-our-coronavirus-crisis

Do you want one?

https://www.facebook.com/DrKathrynMannix/posts/2949195348436749?__tn__=K-R

I can't really answer that one, but I do think it is unduly negative about ventilators.  You can survive intensive care and ventilators, and get back to a near normal life; well you could until covid-19 happened.  I wouldn't want a ventilator if it meant I was going to be a vegetable, but I'd also want one if there was a good chance of a reasonable life.   

It’s quite a harrowing read for sure.