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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 166476 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #915 on: March 28, 2020, 02:37:57 PM »

This is remarkable

https://twitter.com/wilfredchan/status/1243887606569590784?s=20

some background

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/28/taiwan-who-coronavirus-china-international-organizations/

Taiwan has a 28m population, only 200 cases of COVID i think and 2 deaths.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 02:41:49 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #916 on: March 28, 2020, 03:35:50 PM »

It took a global pandemic, but in silver linings, Tighty is back!

Hope you're well.
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« Reply #917 on: March 28, 2020, 03:40:12 PM »

Who's chips did they piss on to get so cut out of the loop?

You'd like to give the benefit of the doubt that it was a tez connection, but still.
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« Reply #918 on: March 28, 2020, 04:02:29 PM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1243901924786790400

That seems quite a leap today; what day did we go past 100?

More astonishing is that we still seem to be only doing around 7,000 tests a day.  That is where we were a week ago when the real number of cases would be around a quarter of what they are now. 

I keep seeing reports of mass testing/tesing of health workers been imminent, yet the actual number of tests hasn't really moved. 

I am starting to think someone has left a constant somewhere in their spreadsheet.


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« Reply #919 on: March 28, 2020, 04:09:20 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.
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« Reply #920 on: March 28, 2020, 04:30:23 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.

or the day before?  Had it in my head that it was around 7,000.  I don't think it matters that much, if you just read the headlines, you'd think we were ramping the number up.
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« Reply #921 on: March 28, 2020, 04:41:17 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.

or the day before?  Had it in my head that it was around 7,000.  I don't think it matters that much, if you just read the headlines, you'd think we were ramping the number up.

I use this one for us  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

This one for the world https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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« Reply #922 on: March 28, 2020, 05:04:32 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.

or the day before?  Had it in my head that it was around 7,000.  I don't think it matters that much, if you just read the headlines, you'd think we were ramping the number up.

I use this one for us  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

This one for the world https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


That’s a good spreadsheet Marky. It just needs another column for “Recovereds”: I seem to recall seeing a figure within the last few days, and it was disappointingly low - like less than 300

Just another question I’ve been pondering: If the same patient has been tested more than once (if this hasn’t actually happened at all yet, it’s sure to be happening in the future), will both results be included or not? I acknowledge that it’s likely to be statistically insignificant right now, but it may not be as we get to the peak & beyond. I’m sure the Health body’s statisticians will allow for this.....
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« Reply #923 on: March 28, 2020, 05:20:18 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.

or the day before?  Had it in my head that it was around 7,000.  I don't think it matters that much, if you just read the headlines, you'd think we were ramping the number up.

I use this one for us  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

This one for the world https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



It was 7,000 in the 24 hours up to 9am, so the figure is really for yesterday when it is announced today.  I meant I had it in my head it was about 7,000 the day before too (when it was really 8,900).  

I don't think it matters much, on the 19 March they managed 8,000 tests.   So it isn't really going up right now, just bobbling about.   If the real cases are still doubling every 3 days then we should be doing 64,000 just to keep up?  And weren't people saying we weren't doing enough testing then?  I can't see how they have any real idea how many people are infected right now.  They can wait fot the deaths, but that feels inefficient when they can get an idea sooner how well lockdown is working by looking at infections?  

Having said that, because the volume of testing has been poor in the past, even if they did lots ov tests tomorrow, they would have nothing reliable to compare the results with.  And there is an obvious PR problem with announcing we have 100,000 positives if we previously said there were 15,000.  



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« Reply #924 on: March 28, 2020, 05:20:44 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.

or the day before?  Had it in my head that it was around 7,000.  I don't think it matters that much, if you just read the headlines, you'd think we were ramping the number up.

By any normal times definition, we have ramped up quite significantly over a couple of weeks.

Not sure why they keep setting targets so people can tell them they're still failing. It feels like it should be possible not to communicate so badly - you don't have to do it too well if you stick to facts but just don't do it badly would be a good mantra. At the moment they should be able to point to a substantial increase as a success rather than have to explain why they haven't met their first target let alone the second one.

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« Reply #925 on: March 28, 2020, 05:33:32 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.

or the day before?  Had it in my head that it was around 7,000.  I don't think it matters that much, if you just read the headlines, you'd think we were ramping the number up.

I use this one for us  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

This one for the world https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


That’s a good spreadsheet Marky. It just needs another column for “Recovereds”: I seem to recall seeing a figure within the last few days, and it was disappointingly low - like less than 300

Just another question I’ve been pondering: If the same patient has been tested more than once (if this hasn’t actually happened at all yet, it’s sure to be happening in the future), will both results be included or not? I acknowledge that it’s likely to be statistically insignificant right now, but it may not be as we get to the peak & beyond. I’m sure the Health body’s statisticians will allow for this.....

It’s the @Murtaman spreadsheet from the DHSC Twitter thread, he will take requests in terms of making changes to it.
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« Reply #926 on: March 28, 2020, 05:49:44 PM »

Did 8900 yesterday, though.

or the day before?  Had it in my head that it was around 7,000.  I don't think it matters that much, if you just read the headlines, you'd think we were ramping the number up.

By any normal times definition, we have ramped up quite significantly over a couple of weeks.

Not sure why they keep setting targets so people can tell them they're still failing. It feels like it should be possible not to communicate so badly - you don't have to do it too well if you stick to facts but just don't do it badly would be a good mantra. At the moment they should be able to point to a substantial increase as a success rather than have to explain why they haven't met their first target let alone the second one.

Should just say 'We're trying to increase testing as quickly as we are able, because we know it is vital', and leave it at that.

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« Reply #927 on: March 28, 2020, 06:43:24 PM »

I think it's open knowledge isnt it that they expect it to peak 2 weeks after the lockdown was introduced. Even with people still out and about the social interaction has been suppressed massively.

Were not on the same trajectory as Italy, isnt that to do with the number of old people who still leave with their children and grandchildren.

Peaking in 2 weeks is great but that means our graph will be low and long. More lives saved but the lockdown will be in place for 3 maybe 4 months?


The evidence from China says peak 32 days after full lockdown, it’s hard to envisage a scenario (with a less stringent lockdown) where we beat that. It does seem credible that Italy/Spain is disadvantaged by having multiple generations of families in the same house. It seems to be too early to say how we are doing relative to those countries though, as we are still so early on the exponential growth phase. I think the JBM chart is still the best I’ve seen, he has some serious bright people advising him on it as well. The next week is key for us and it’s clearly concerning that our epicentre is one of the most densely populated places in Europe, more similar to NYC and Madrid than Lombardy.

I'll have a look for the JBM chart later.

Is 32 for the peak of deaths and 14 for the peak of infections as it takes longer for people to succumb to the illness than be a confirmed case?

NYC is going to be the worst hit place in the world by the sound of it. The lady I own work with lives there and her and her family are lucky enough to have driven out to a friends holiday home. They dont expect to be able to.think about going home till June.
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« Reply #928 on: March 28, 2020, 07:03:04 PM »

I think it's open knowledge isnt it that they expect it to peak 2 weeks after the lockdown was introduced. Even with people still out and about the social interaction has been suppressed massively.

Were not on the same trajectory as Italy, isnt that to do with the number of old people who still leave with their children and grandchildren.

Peaking in 2 weeks is great but that means our graph will be low and long. More lives saved but the lockdown will be in place for 3 maybe 4 months?


The evidence from China says peak 32 days after full lockdown, it’s hard to envisage a scenario (with a less stringent lockdown) where we beat that. It does seem credible that Italy/Spain is disadvantaged by having multiple generations of families in the same house. It seems to be too early to say how we are doing relative to those countries though, as we are still so early on the exponential growth phase. I think the JBM chart is still the best I’ve seen, he has some serious bright people advising him on it as well. The next week is key for us and it’s clearly concerning that our epicentre is one of the most densely populated places in Europe, more similar to NYC and Madrid than Lombardy.

I'll have a look for the JBM chart later.

Is 32 for the peak of deaths and 14 for the peak of infections as it takes longer for people to succumb to the illness than be a confirmed cases
NYC is going to be the worst hit place in the world by the sound of it. The lady I own work with lives there and her and her family are lucky enough to have driven out to a friends holiday home. They dont expect to be able to.think about going home till June.

That would be peak fatalities, I really don’t think that date for peak infections is credible (but I obviously can’t be certain). The problem is no one really has sufficiently good data and no two countries have taken an (anywhere near) identical approach. It’s going to be a long haul for all of us. Good luck with the new baby and let’s hope everything gets sorted as soon as possible for your business. I‘m lucky to be comprehensively quarantining and just waiting it out to restart my immunotherapy. Early on it seemed to be following me everywhere I went, I was in the French Alps near the Italian border in February, then when they announced the case at the Mount Vernon Cancer Centre, I’d been there three days in the previous week. Finally returned to the safety of Wales to stay with my parents for a while and they were airlifting one of the early Welsh cases out of Underhill Park.
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« Reply #929 on: March 28, 2020, 11:55:37 PM »

I know tonight was the night where we was all supposed to slap the NHS, but also time to see that folk are still putting their personal greed first too.

Yesterday, I had seen that Jeremy Joseph, owner of nightclub brand G-A-Y, who has 4 nightclubs had posted on Twitter to bemoan his landlords. G-A-Y have a lot of money in the bank, they have the largest and most popular nightclub in the UK.

Jeremy had offered to pay all of his landlords the cost price of each venue. He didn't ask for a payment holiday, despite 200 staff. He just politely asked for rents to be at cost priced, instead of the £402k quaterly amount. They said no and offered him the holiday. By time that holiday is over, they'll owe £800k.

It's essentially a small business. In all of this kind stuff, there's plenty of horrid greed going about too.

I tried to type a constructive post to respond to this but I can't

You are just so effing stupid commenting on things that you have zero understanding of.

Rents to be at cost price. FML.

A lot of what is happening right now has nothing to do with personal greed how ever horrible you think the world is.

Only got this far so far but thank fuck you did it Stu cause that is some of the most clueless stuff i have read. Arron you should consider being a management consultant they get paid a fortune for coming out with stuff on shit they don't understand.
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