COVID19

[Karabiner]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

What is the travel-agent saying Tom?

[RED-DOG]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

What is the travel-agent saying Tom?

There is no travel agent Ralph, we booked it all online.

[Doobs]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

It is up to you, but...

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200226-sitrep-37-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6126c0a4_4

Number of confirmed cases

Viet Nam 16
Cambodia 1
Thailand 40

There are no confirmed deaths in any of the countries

There is likely to be more under-reporting in those countries than here, but is Thailand today going to be worse than the UK in a week?  It feels like a flip at best that we have 40+ cases by next week.  It is a similar worry I have with all these schools closing now; if they close them now how can they open them when the risk is likely to be much higher in a month's time? 

Having been to Thailand, I think the risk of getting killed on the roads is likely to be still way higher. 

It really is up to you, I'd rather be on a small boat than a cruise liner right now, but don't think anyone will judge you harshly if you change your mind. 

How long is to go now?

[Karabiner]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

What is the travel-agent saying Tom?

There is no travel agent Ralph, we booked it all online.

Tough decision if you have no chance of a refund, although hhyftr the man city fan who just came back from The Phillipines reckons you'll be fine.

[RED-DOG]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

It is up to you, but...

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200226-sitrep-37-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6126c0a4_4

Number of confirmed cases

Viet Nam 16
Cambodia 1
Thailand 40

There are no confirmed deaths in any of the countries

There is likely to be more under-reporting in those countries than here, but is Thailand today going to be worse than the UK in a week?  It feels like a flip at best that we have 40+ cases by next week.  It is a similar worry I have with all these schools closing now; if they close them now how can they open them when the risk is likely to be much higher in a month's time? 

Having been to Thailand, I think the risk of getting killed on the roads is likely to be still way higher. 

It really is up to you, I'd rather be on a small boat than a cruise liner right now, but don't think anyone will judge you harshly if you change your mind. 

How long is to go now?

About a fortnight, we will be away for 3 weeks though and a lot can happen in that time.

I do have some lung fibrosis already, which I suppose would make me more vulnerable if I did catch anything, but it's not just about the risk of disease, it's about the effect the situation will have on the enjoyability, if that makes sense.

[Doobs]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

It is up to you, but...

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200226-sitrep-37-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6126c0a4_4

Number of confirmed cases

Viet Nam 16
Cambodia 1
Thailand 40

There are no confirmed deaths in any of the countries

There is likely to be more under-reporting in those countries than here, but is Thailand today going to be worse than the UK in a week?  It feels like a flip at best that we have 40+ cases by next week.  It is a similar worry I have with all these schools closing now; if they close them now how can they open them when the risk is likely to be much higher in a month's time? 

Having been to Thailand, I think the risk of getting killed on the roads is likely to be still way higher. 

It really is up to you, I'd rather be on a small boat than a cruise liner right now, but don't think anyone will judge you harshly if you change your mind. 

How long is to go now?

About a fortnight, we will be away for 3 weeks though and a lot can happen in that time.

I do have some lung fibrosis already, which I suppose would make me more vulnerable if I did catch anything, but it's not just about the risk of disease, it's about the effect the situation will have on the enjoyability, if that makes sense.

I'd say having some lung fibrosis definitely makes a difference to the risks.  I was trying to woek out if sleep apnoea would, but lung issue would worry me.

I would say that people in the tourist trade will be very pleased to see you, though I guess possible shortages and queues balance that.   If I was younger and healthier I'd say fk it and go.   Really is your decision.   Would it be a postponement or a never to be repeated trip given you are likely to lose quite a bit of money?

[SuperJez]

- The WHO are complete clowns and I do not believe a word that they say.  China's puppets.  Specifically for one, the WHO director, who was paid off and pressured by China to advise against the trade and travel bans that any sane person would have done.

- Trump appears to be more concerned about trying to keep the stock market up than truthful advice and competent measures as he directly correlates it with his chance of re-election.  He won't manage and stocks will be crap until a vaccine comes along.  Everything went up so much last year anyway.  

- IMO Cheltenham is probably 50/50 to actually go ahead now.  However I cannot see how the WSOP, the Olympics and Euro 2020 have any chance of going ahead at this point without a vaccine.  It's incredible that there are Europa League matches going ahead tonight with Italian teams when this is now a pandemic.

- More cases in the UK today (as expected) but this is the strange (and worrying?) part that I don't understand.

Recovered patients testing positive again
Celia Hatton

BBC Asia Pacific Regional Editor

Chinese health officials say that about 14% of people who had the coronavirus but recovered and were discharged from hospital have tested positive for the virus again.

Health officials admit they're still learning about the new coronavirus and how it operates within the human body.

The same phenomenon has been reported in Japan, when a woman in her 40s who had recovered and tested negative for the virus then tested positive more than three weeks later.

[bergeroo]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

I would say you are probably about as likely to get the virus in those countries as in the UK right now. So if you aren't going to get any money back from your trip then you probably should go. However I guess the most important thing is will you enjoy it or will you be stressed and tense?

Is it a motorcycle trip? Or are you travelling on buses/trains? Traveling on public transport will put you in close contact with lots of people, but on the bike seems pretty safe.

One problem you might encounter is that if things progress then one of these countries might close its borders to another one of these countries or enforce a quarantine.

All of the poker I was going to play in Vietnam and Taiwan was cancelled but I was still probably going to go. However now if you travel from Japan or Korea to Taiwan then you have to go in quarantine, so that is the tourism part of my trip messed up aswell. I was able to cancel my flight and get credit with the airline so I just decided to do that in the end.

For you it seems right now you can still do all of your trip, and yes maybe it will be even better because it is less busy.

The problem of course is the uncertainty, how will things change over the next 4-5 weeks? I can understand why you are worried. In times of global uncertainty it is natural to kind of shut up shop a bit, stay with your families and stay at home.

[SuperJez]

Nick Rust has said this about possible cancellation of Cheltenham

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/horseracing/1247559/Cheltenham-2020-Cheltenham-Festival-cancelled-coronavirus-racing-news

"In terms of potential ramifications for the Festival, any decision that impacts on it taking place will not be a decision that racing makes, but rather the Government"

Regarding the Governments position, Matt Hancock said today

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/coronavirus-news-live-covid19-europe-uk-latest-a4372836.html

"We do want to minimise social and economic disruption subject to keeping people safe.

“Of course that is always going to be a balance. We’re going to be led by the scientific advice into what works.”"

[Marky147]

About a fortnight, we will be away for 3 weeks though and a lot can happen in that time.

I do have some lung fibrosis already, which I suppose would make me more vulnerable if I did catch anything, but it's not just about the risk of disease, it's about the effect the situation will have on the enjoyability, if that makes sense.

I'd go, and my IS is shot.

Disclaimer - I'm not known for making smart decisions

[nirvana]

This is a pretty tough decision. Think I'd probably canvas all my immediate family and go with the consensus if there was one.

[SuperJez]

UK cases now up to 16, first one confirmed in Northern Ireland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51667483

[I KNOW IT]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

What is the travel-agent saying Tom?

Hi Tom
At this moment I. Time I would say 100% go. I have friends who live there and say a no problem at all at this moment. They actually say it’s great as nice and quiet to get around .
As you know I live in China and we have dealt with this for the last 6 weeks .
I’d invite you here in Shenzhen but it would be a terrible time due to restrictions of  outdoor activities, nothing else .
That’s your only worry in visiting those places is that the major attractions may be closed to the public . The main concern in Asia is group gathering, so they close certain amenities like cinemas  , sports grounds, tourist attractions. etc

Just so you know 2 days ago Hong Kong has extended the closure of schools until 20th April . I expect where iO live in Shenzhen to follow suit. At the moment here, schools are supposed to return on March 16th .

There is going to be so many businesses that will have to  close due to the restrictions which consequently has resulted in no income for most
businesses throughout China . Staff are being asked to take pay cuts, landlords are asking to give rent relief.  Government properties are helping but private landlords don’t give a shit.   
These are sad times for such a beautiful country 

[I KNOW IT]

Thinking of cancelling my Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip.

What does everyone think?

What is the travel-agent saying Tom?

Hi Tom
At this moment I. Time I would say 100% go. I have friends who live there and say a no problem at all at this moment. They actually say it’s great as nice and quiet to get around .
As you know I live in China and we have dealt with this for the last 6 weeks .
I’d invite you here in Shenzhen but it would be a terrible time due to restrictions of  outdoor activities, nothing else .
That’s your only worry in visiting those places is that the major attractions may be closed to the public . The main concern in Asia is group gathering, so they close certain amenities like cinemas  , sports grounds, tourist attractions. etc

Just so you know 2 days ago Hong Kong has extended the closure of schools until 20th April . I expect where iO live in Shenzhen to follow suit. At the moment here, schools are supposed to return on March 16th .

There is going to be so many businesses that will have to  close due to the restrictions which consequently has resulted in no income for most
businesses throughout China . Staff are being asked to take pay cuts, landlords are asking to give rent relief.  Government properties are helping but private landlords don’t give a shit.   
These are sad times for such a beautiful country 

Like bergaroo correctly said , a worry can be quarantine rules by certain countries which can change at any time.
I live I. Possibly the closest Chinese  city to  Hong Kong.  All borders except one  here have been closed and if I go to Hong Kong now from mainland China . I have to do a 14 day quarantine by law.   Even flying from abroad now into China you have to do self imposed 7-14 day quarantine in your own home .   
These will be risks Tom

[RED-DOG]

Thanks Craig. Plenty to think about.