COVID19

[tikay]

an absolute disgrace workers sacked and kicked out of the staff accommodation on the same day, many are EU nationals with no where to go.

 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Britianna hotel group.  I woouldn't expect anything different.   Awful cost cutting hotel chain.

The 2 worst Hotels I've ever used in the UK are the Britannia's in Manchester & Nottingham. Dreadful places. 

[arbboy]

an absolute disgrace workers sacked and kicked out of the staff accommodation on the same day, many are EU nationals with no where to go.

 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Britianna hotel group.  I woouldn't expect anything different.   Awful cost cutting hotel chain.

The 2 worst Hotels I've ever used in the UK are the Britannia's in Manchester & Nottingham. Dreadful places. 

THE worst selection of hotels you could possibly put together.  It is like their business plan is to buy the worst hotel possible in every town and city.   Stoke/Bham/Brighton all shocking as well.   Pretty sure they own the hotel opposite the pier in Brighton on the corner.

[youthnkzR]

Everyone says "don't panic buy food" but it's getting really difficult to get even basics.

The earliest available slots for online supermarket shopping are 2 to 3 weeks away.

Habitually, I go to my local Tesco at 8am each morning & get when I need. This week the queue awaiting opening time at 8am has been round the block, & once inside the shelves are, quite literally, empty. Standing in a queue outside a supermarket every morning is not exactly good social-distancing either.

I've been fairly laid back about the whole thing, & as I live alone I'm used to self isolating, it's my normal lifestyle & I'm completely fine with it. The enormity of it all is dawning on me now & it's seriously scary. And that's before we start worrying about the economic Armageddon that is waiting in the wings.

And if you can manage a "heavy" read, here's a report by Imperial College which scares the life out of me. In the absence of MANTIS I need someone solid & sensible like The Evil Pie,  Dooobs, JonMW or Science Wife to poo poo it to make me feel better.


 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

I wandered down to my local Asda yesterday afternoon just to see what it was like - didn't really need much but had in mind to get a paper and buy a few ingredients to make fish cakes.

Loads of shelves empty - most fresh fruit and veg gone, not a potato in site, but you could get Leeks Apples - no problem with Parsley so I got some of that.

Nearly all fresh meat gone bar their more expensive steaks but plenty of sausages, bacon, black pudding - just along from there are pies and stuff - quite a few of those and, having switched to comfort eating mode based on the scenes before me I picked up a couple of scotch eggs.

Kipling cakes and biscuits seemed quite plentiful so I picked up a few of those. Got breadcrumbs, frozen mushy peas, frozen fish, frozen prawns. Fortunately I still have a few potatoes here so fishcakes can be made

Most tea and coffee had gone, eggs gone and quite a few other aisles looked pretty empty but tbf, because I can cook a bit, unless they are absolutely empty of everything, like Doobs, we may have to vary what we eat but feels like we'll be alright.

No way am I joining a queue to go to a supermarket at any point (could be famous last words) - I don't have young kids at home so this takes a lot of pressure off the feeling of having to have stuff to provide your family.

All the little local independent shops around me still have plenty of everything no problem, everyone seems to be hitting the supermarket......

This. Today I've been to a Texaco (Spar) garage and a local shop.

Spar had everything (including a near full shelf of loo roll) minus bread. Local store had everything.

It's funny how daft people seem to be in general. Crowding into supermarkets where everything is in short supply yet completely forgetting about smaller stores.

[Doobs]

Just seen this on BBC News;



Death toll in England rises to 128

The number of people who have died from Covid-19 in England has risen to 128.

The 29 latest patients to have died were aged between 47 and 96 years old and had underlying health conditions, NHS England said.


Is that in line with expectations, better, or worse?

DHSC announced 144, which was 40% up on the day before.  I don't think you can read much into these increases, as it is a small total, it might just be getting a bit distorted by some people dying relatively quickly?

A more optimistic picture is emerging from Italy where he increases seeem to be a slowing down.  There are some lower increases coming from Scandanavia too.  Sweden was on a par with us for new cases a week ago.  https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102193/coronavirus-cases-development-in-sweden/.   Of course, many South East Asian countires have done a much better job too.

[Jamier-Host]

...
And if you can manage a "heavy" read, here's a report by Imperial College which scares the life out of me. In the absence of MANTIS I need someone solid & sensible like The Evil Pie,  Dooobs, JonMW or Science Wife to poo poo it to make me feel better.


 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

If you want to make it easier to read just skip past all the numbers and tables and the like.

If you just stick to the narrative that's in fairly standard English then (I think) it's fairly easy to 'get'.

You might not like it after you 'get' it - but there's not much we can do about that.

The 'normal' way of dealing with flu pandemics will overwhelm critical care and lots of people die.
The 'other' way of dealing with pandemics will probably overwhelm critical care and lots of people die.
The 'best' way of dealing with this pandemic is to alternate the other two ways and critical care might not get overwhelmed. Lots of people will still die though - just not as many.

What i couldn't work out here is what they think the incremental is going to be.

500k deaths sounds massive, but a quick google suggests the usual number for UK is north of 600k. Similar probability increases based on age and health problems too.

Clearly want to keep the numbers as low as possible, but as mentioned elsewhere here, there could also be some brutal short and long term effects of an economic meltdown.

[vegaslover]

an absolute disgrace workers sacked and kicked out of the staff accommodation on the same day, many are EU nationals with no where to go.

 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Britianna hotel group.  I woouldn't expect anything different.   Awful cost cutting hotel chain.

The 2 worst Hotels I've ever used in the UK are the Britannia's in Manchester & Nottingham. Dreadful places. 

THE worst selection of hotels you could possibly put together.  It is like their business plan is to buy the worst hotel possible in every town and city.   Stoke/Bham/Brighton all shocking as well.   Pretty sure they own the hotel opposite the pier in Brighton on the corner.

Yep, they own the hotel opposite the pier. They also own several around Gatwick airport, rooms sold primarily on the basis of cheap parking for holiday makers.
Couple of years ago I spent time sub-contracting on one near Gatwick replacing/updating lighting and bathroom fans. The old fans just pumped the moisture into the space above the false ceiling, mould and damp everywhere. Very poor quality fittings in the bathroom.

[bunnydas8888]

Took the dog out for a walk early. Down Eccy Road in Sheffield - lots of bars and restaurants there.

Whilst odd ones were shut, 90% plus open and reasonably busy with groups happily drinking as if all was well in the world.

Counted a group of seven young lads, obviously invincible.

I popped into my local pub on Wednesday night as I had to drop something off to someone who worked in there.

I counted just under 20 customers in there, roughly half of them were regulars who are all over 70 or would be in the at risk category due to health problems.

So it's not just the young people still going to the pubs!

[Jon MW]

an absolute disgrace workers sacked and kicked out of the staff accommodation on the same day, many are EU nationals with no where to go.

 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Britianna hotel group.  I woouldn't expect anything different.   Awful cost cutting hotel chain.

The 2 worst Hotels I've ever used in the UK are the Britannia's in Manchester & Nottingham. Dreadful places. 

THE worst selection of hotels you could possibly put together.  It is like their business plan is to buy the worst hotel possible in every town and city.   Stoke/Bham/Brighton all shocking as well.   Pretty sure they own the hotel opposite the pier in Brighton on the corner.

Yep, they own the hotel opposite the pier. They also own several around Gatwick airport, rooms sold primarily on the basis of cheap parking for holiday makers.
Couple of years ago I spent time sub-contracting on one near Gatwick replacing/updating lighting and bathroom fans. The old fans just pumped the moisture into the space above the false ceiling, mould and damp everywhere. Very poor quality fittings in the bathroom.

I can't remember which hotels it was, but quite a while ago I made a mental note to never book with them because the times I had they were pretty awful.

It might have coincidentally been just the two places I stayed but they were both very grand buildings - but with very poor maintenance and poor service. It was like a 5 star building but 2 star service. My guess is they snapped up a whole load of big, old hotels that had to shut down but made them economically feasible by just cutting all the costs and corners.

[Jon MW]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

[tikay]

an absolute disgrace workers sacked and kicked out of the staff accommodation on the same day, many are EU nationals with no where to go.

 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Britianna hotel group.  I woouldn't expect anything different.   Awful cost cutting hotel chain.

The 2 worst Hotels I've ever used in the UK are the Britannia's in Manchester & Nottingham. Dreadful places.  

THE worst selection of hotels you could possibly put together.  It is like their business plan is to buy the worst hotel possible in every town and city.   Stoke/Bham/Brighton all shocking as well.   Pretty sure they own the hotel opposite the pier in Brighton on the corner.

Yep, they own the hotel opposite the pier. They also own several around Gatwick airport, rooms sold primarily on the basis of cheap parking for holiday makers.
Couple of years ago I spent time sub-contracting on one near Gatwick replacing/updating lighting and bathroom fans. The old fans just pumped the moisture into the space above the false ceiling, mould and damp everywhere. Very poor quality fittings in the bathroom.

I can't remember which hotels it was, but quite a while ago I made a mental note to never book with them because the times I had they were pretty awful.

It might have coincidentally been just the two places I stayed but they were both very grand buildings - but with very poor maintenance and poor service. It was like a 5 star building but 2 star service. My guess is they snapped up a whole load of big, old hotels that had to shut down but made them economically feasible by just cutting all the costs and corners.

Mostly, yes, beautiful looking Victorian buildings with grand foyers. But dilapidated, & with awful rooms. Their one saving grace is that the buffet brekkie includes that rarest of delicacies to find in a hotel these days - fried bread. Smother it with plum tomatoes, & that's 5 star grub.


 

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

https://mobile.twitter.com/camilateleSUR/status/1240474928333414401

Imagine flying thousands of miles and seeing this

[Jon MW]

Reports coming in of London being under military lockdown by the weekend troops are already being deployed not sure how much truth in this

Laura Kuenssberg: "No 10 says there is 'zero prospect' of a big lockdown of London - as we've been reporting there might be tightening of restrictions but remember that is VERY different from other suggestions of travel bans or the kind of total lockdowns some other countries have pursued"

Guess it's happening then.......

I think it’s certain there will be an almost complete lockdown in London. Let’s think population densities in London vs Lombardy, they have a similar number of people. Lombardy is 24,000 km squared, London is 1600 km squared. Italy has way better respirator provision than we do and far better air quality in that part of Italy vs London. The only positive I can think is average age. I know it annoyed Nirvana but there is good reason to think we will be the worst of any country soon.

Doesn't annoy me and even if it did, I'm glad you keep posting your thoughts - hare brained or otherwise :-)

That’s cool, I assumed any annoyance would be very low level. The great thing about economics and science compared to politics is that we’ll get much better evidence of whether or not ideas are indeed ‘hare brained’ 😊.

Appreciating the entente - but I think the idea you'll get in anyway a clear answer because it's science or (particularly) economics seems ambitious

Ronald Reagan allegedly once said that if trivial pursuit were designed by economists, it would have 100 questions and 3,000 answers; see also how do you get 100 economic opinions? Ask 100 economists

[StuartHopkin]

an absolute disgrace workers sacked and kicked out of the staff accommodation on the same day, many are EU nationals with no where to go.

 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Britianna hotel group.  I woouldn't expect anything different.   Awful cost cutting hotel chain.

The 2 worst Hotels I've ever used in the UK are the Britannia's in Manchester & Nottingham. Dreadful places. 

THE worst selection of hotels you could possibly put together.  It is like their business plan is to buy the worst hotel possible in every town and city.   Stoke/Bham/Brighton all shocking as well.   Pretty sure they own the hotel opposite the pier in Brighton on the corner.

The one in Canary Wharf, the Britannia International i think, used to be okay, not the nicest hotel but the main hotel bar and sports bar were incredible!

[kukushkin88]

Reports coming in of London being under military lockdown by the weekend troops are already being deployed not sure how much truth in this

Laura Kuenssberg: "No 10 says there is 'zero prospect' of a big lockdown of London - as we've been reporting there might be tightening of restrictions but remember that is VERY different from other suggestions of travel bans or the kind of total lockdowns some other countries have pursued"

Guess it's happening then.......

I think it’s certain there will be an almost complete lockdown in London. Let’s think population densities in London vs Lombardy, they have a similar number of people. Lombardy is 24,000 km squared, London is 1600 km squared. Italy has way better respirator provision than we do and far better air quality in that part of Italy vs London. The only positive I can think is average age. I know it annoyed Nirvana but there is good reason to think we will be the worst of any country soon.

Doesn't annoy me and even if it did, I'm glad you keep posting your thoughts - hare brained or otherwise :-)

That’s cool, I assumed any annoyance would be very low level. The great thing about economics and science compared to politics is that we’ll get much better evidence of whether or not ideas are indeed ‘hare brained’ 😊.

Appreciating the entente - but I think the idea you'll get in anyway a clear answer because it's science or (particularly) economics seems ambitious

Ronald Reagan allegedly once said that if trivial pursuit were designed by economists, it would have 100 questions and 3,000 answers; see also how do you get 100 economic opinions? Ask 100 economists

Good morning

I agree in terms of there being few absolutes of certainty in economics or science either. Both of them are less easily corrupted by the lies of Johnson/Cummings/the propaganda type news outlets than politics though.

[StuartHopkin]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

I think we all know you have a wife now Jon