COVID19

[Jon MW]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

I think we all know you have a wife now Jon 

Trying to keep sources clear Particularly for the science.

[Karabiner]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

I think we all know you have a wife now Jon 

He still hasn't told us or presented pictorial evidence as to whether he wore his hat for the wedding.

[Ironside]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

I think we all know you have a wife now Jon 

He might have more than 1 wife
a cooking/cleaning wife
A sexy wife
A  poker wife
A wife to go walking with (because he can)

[StuartHopkin]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

I think we all know you have a wife now Jon 

He still hasn't told us or presented pictorial evidence as to whether he wore his hat for the wedding.

It has been reported that the hat was retired following the wedding day.

[RED-DOG]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

I think we all know you have a wife now Jon 

Trying to keep sources clear Particularly for the science.

I'm a big Science Wife fan, in fact I like all the readers wives.

Please continue to pass on her input.

[RED-DOG]

Gentlemen of a ceartain age will remember withe fondness the 'Readers Wives' section of their adult magazines.


Please listen carefully, the lyrics are brilliant.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHG91g3A1aI

[marcro]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

I think we all know you have a wife now Jon  

Trying to keep sources clear Particularly for the science.

I'm a big Science Wife fan, in fact I like all the readers wives.

Please continue to pass on her input.

I am now also a big fan of Science Wife!!!!

[Doobs]

It's been reported on the BBC and still is nowhere near official, but Science Wife concurs that all the senior management at her school think the schools are going to be closed until September.

It kind of makes sense. The really important part after Easter are the exams, without the exams it should be relatively easy to catch every one else up when they start a new year.

EDIT: that was from an educational point of view. From an epidemiological point of view closing the schools will cut the net infection rate, the worry was that with key workers being sidelined the net reduction would be trivial whereas the ICU capacity would be non-trivially damaged. Now they think they've worked their way around that then there's no reason to not keep the schools closed as long as there needed. That might be until July or August - but the school year's ending then anway, so hence closed til September.

If people read the imperial college report, they are suggesting they can push the peak back to June/July, with cases falling off to September.  I think this gives a pretty good estimate of when schools will reopen.  I can't see them reopening schools if 50,000 people are dying a week at peak.  We then need to hope for a vaccine, and better controls in place before a possible second wave

The dates and casualties depend a lot on how well people adhere to the Government advice.   If it does spiral out of control then things could be over sooner with a lot more casualties.  But even then I can't see schools reopening for a few weeks of the summer term.   There are optmistic scenarios where cases flatten and then start falling, but if the restrictions are working...

It is definitely better to assume months rather than weeks.

[StuartHopkin]

For anyone who is interested in this from a business point of view, still no news on how to actually access the Business Interruption Loan's promised by the Government.

It is all good making these announcements, but if the actual money isn't available soon it is going to be too late for some companies.

[the sicilian]

How long did china lock down for ?.. true they are out the other side of it already ?

[roshambo]

For anyone who is interested in this from a business point of view, still no news on how to actually access the Business Interruption Loan's promised by the Government.

It is all good making these announcements, but if the actual money isn't available soon it is going to be too late for some companies.

Gets released on Monday

[kukushkin88]

How long did china lock down for ?.. true they are out the other side of it already ?

Middle of January roughly. It’s great that there are no new domestic cases but there’s a long list of reasons why it’s still only the beginning. Less than 1% of their population have been infected. They can enforce a lockdown and cover the economic fall out far better than any other nation. As soon as they lift the lockdown no one well placed to understand seems in any doubt that it will start again exactly as before. All of the Osterholm stuff had this pretty much covered.

[kukushkin88]

How long did china lock down for ?.. true they are out the other side of it already ?

Middle of January roughly. It’s great that there are no new domestic cases but there’s a long list of reasons why it’s still only the beginning. Less than 1% of their population have been infected. They can enforce a lockdown and cover the economic fall out far better than any other nation. As soon as they lift the lockdown no one well placed to understand seems in any doubt that it will start again exactly as before. All of the Osterholm stuff had this pretty much covered.

This article seems decent enough. I think it’s a fair prediction that China will lose the smallest percentage of it’s population of any large country.

http:// [url]https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/world/asia/china-coronavirus-zero-infections.amp.html[url]

[kukushkin88]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1240723388336877569?s=21

This is concerning.

[Ironside]

BBC live news feed

12:56
BREAKING
Restriction to continue ‘most of a year’
Policies to limit the spread of coronavirus would need to be in place for "at least most of a year" to prevent intensive care units being overwhelmed, according to official scientific advice to the government.

The documents, prepared by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said alternating between more and less strict measures could "plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity".