COVID19

[kukushkin88]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

[Cf]

The lies and incompetence on show about the involvement in the EU procurement scheme are quite something. Nearly every time someone from the government speaks on the matter they say something entirely different to the last ‘official’ line. It says a lot about what a shambles they are that the lost e-mail is their best excuse, even though they were present at the face to face meetings.

This is an interesting thread about the retraction from Simon McDonald:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1252901009627721729?s=21

 ;

The Government not doing themselves any favours with this one.

If the reason they don't/didn't want to join is Brexit then why not just say so? Not only do they make themselves sound grossy incompetent (missing out on a Europe wide scheme because of a misplaced email just lol) they're also clearly lying as they do it. And doing so during the daily national addresses to the nation. That's not acceptable surely whichever way you lean politically?

[kukushkin88]

This is a bit surreal. The Sun follows the FT and Sunday Times in getting the rebuttal treatment, this time directly from the civil service, rather than ‘a spokesman for the PM’ using their website:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-response-to-a-sun-newspaper-column

I think all of the "official" responses tend to be from a related spokesperson to the subject. When the government was being criticised it had a government response with PHE being criticised it was a PHE response. At least there's was a lot easier as the Sun don't appear to have bothered with any basic fact checking.

It does seem like they might be going for a more aggressive approach to misrepresentation though - there could be some behavioural analysis in that as well - it would be a bad time for the general public to lose confidence in the 'establishment'

A rebuttal to The Sun though, from a civil service website, using argumentative language. If they’re trying to inspire confidence, this isn’t the way. It’ll be The Beano or The Dandy in the firing line next.

[neeko]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

[Marky147]

love the fact chompy still reads this garbage!

Chomps is the king of celeb BB, he has to!

rememeber when he was king of the draw bias!  how times change.  #getbaacktothedayjob

I remember the good old Celeb BB & X-Factor days!

Britain’s Got Talent....current odds on fav is a GOSH nurse.

Not watched that for years, so went and had a look.



Very good.

[kukushkin88]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

It isn’t the most realistic number though. Both the ONS and the DHSC numbers should be given equal prominence in the Tuesday briefing. There should be an integrity in communicating these fatalities, an area where we are lacking, completely. Watch a Wednesday Press Conference with Sturgeon and/or a daily briefing with Andrew Cuomo and spot the difference.

We can give incompetent people (like Raab) sympathy/pity on a human level but he should have no leeway as acting PM, nor should he need any, he is a more competent man than the PM (low bar, I know).

Not sure what you mean about July, this will still be driving all of the news agenda in July. None of my criticisms are in hindsight, if that’s what you meant?

[nirvana]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

It isn’t the most realistic number though. Both the ONS and the DHSC numbers should be given equal prominence in the Tuesday briefing. There should be an integrity in communicating these fatalities, an area where we are lacking, completely. Watch a Wednesday Press Conference with Sturgeon and/or a daily briefing with Andrew Cuomo and spot the difference.

We can give incompetent people (like Raab) sympathy/pity on a human level but he should have no leeway as acting PM, nor should he need any, he is a more competent man than the PM (low bar, I know).

Not sure what you mean about July, this will still be driving all of the news agenda in July. None of my criticisms are in hindsight, if that’s what you meant?

Our reporting on deaths, albeit with a 2 week lag, in terms of the Ons stats is completely transparent and with less lag than many countries central stats offices. Questioning the integrity of reporting facts (albeit with some interpretation from doctors / registrars) is just a form of hysteria tbf.

[nirvana]

Daily briefings are crap though. I'll give you that.

[kukushkin88]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

It isn’t the most realistic number though. Both the ONS and the DHSC numbers should be given equal prominence in the Tuesday briefing. There should be an integrity in communicating these fatalities, an area where we are lacking, completely. Watch a Wednesday Press Conference with Sturgeon and/or a daily briefing with Andrew Cuomo and spot the difference.

We can give incompetent people (like Raab) sympathy/pity on a human level but he should have no leeway as acting PM, nor should he need any, he is a more competent man than the PM (low bar, I know).

Not sure what you mean about July, this will still be driving all of the news agenda in July. None of my criticisms are in hindsight, if that’s what you meant?

Our reporting on deaths, albeit with a 2 week lag, in terms of the Ons stats is completely transparent and with less lag than many countries central stats offices. Questioning the integrity of reporting facts (albeit with some interpretation from doctors / registrars) is just a form of hysteria tbf.

We can’t say that the daily briefings address the ONS numbers with ‘integrity’.

They show the ONS numbers on one bar chart. Other than that, they don’t mention them.

They flat out lie, when challenged (Vallance and Doyle), about the French numbers on their country comparison graph.

https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/government-has-misled-public-over-uk-deaths-being-lower-than-france/7027404.article

[Pokerpops]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

It isn’t the most realistic number though. Both the ONS and the DHSC numbers should be given equal prominence in the Tuesday briefing. There should be an integrity in communicating these fatalities, an area where we are lacking, completely. Watch a Wednesday Press Conference with Sturgeon and/or a daily briefing with Andrew Cuomo and spot the difference.

We can give incompetent people (like Raab) sympathy/pity on a human level but he should have no leeway as acting PM, nor should he need any, he is a more competent man than the PM (low bar, I know).

Not sure what you mean about July, this will still be driving all of the news agenda in July. None of my criticisms are in hindsight, if that’s what you meant?

You seemed quite happy to give Corbyn leeway in terms of his incompetence.

It’s all a bit repetitive really. You quote sources that suit your agenda and dismiss anyone with a different view.
It’s not very edifying for a man of your intellect to be so ignorant of the complexities of what our leaders are having to deal with.

[neeko]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

It isn’t the most realistic number though. Both the ONS and the DHSC numbers should be given equal prominence in the Tuesday briefing. There should be an integrity in communicating these fatalities, an area where we are lacking, completely. Watch a Wednesday Press Conference with Sturgeon and/or a daily briefing with Andrew Cuomo and spot the difference.

We can give incompetent people (like Raab) sympathy/pity on a human level but he should have no leeway as acting PM, nor should he need any, he is a more competent man than the PM (low bar, I know).

Not sure what you mean about July, this will still be driving all of the news agenda in July. None of my criticisms are in hindsight, if that’s what you meant?

Boris is an idiot and incompetent that is a given, the Tory govt inability to organise Brexit after talking about it for 20 years is a joke, but this pandemic is not the pandemic they have been planning badly for - it is a totally new beast.

No one was complaining that the only factory on earth that made nasal swabs was situated in the northern Italy, its ability to produce was limited by events. Who knew that so much PPE was made in Hubei. Who predicted that demand for face masks would go up 900% (in France but the uk is still secret) whilst simultaneously that only places that made it would be closed and knocked offline, who predictions included that the USA would go round outbidding all other counties for any on the open market.

Politicians are very good at fixing problems the media are shouting at them about, they are not good at looking ahead and planning for a few weeks ahead.

I am assuming that restrictions will be released gradually in May with kids back to school in late May? So June will see infection rates start to rise, deaths climbing in late June, the big questions will be keep the schools open till the summer hols? Allow people to go to seaside resorts? Will Spain accept tourists in August? Can you get medical insurance to even go on holiday?

Will over 70s be released from house arrest in 2020?

If r0 is low enough to mean the nightingale hospitals are busy but not full, will govt impose another lockdown with the NHS coping but deaths at 2000 a day.

The 1919 Spanish flu had 2m+ deaths in wave 1 but 20m+ in wave 2, and there was a wave 3.

 I predict that the govt will go for a openish economy with over 70s in lockdown, physical distancing ongoing but shops open. Testing and tracing and quarantining lower r0 by 0.3

No vaccine in 2021, immigration becomes a massive problem this summer as Africa and the Mid East can’t cope with CV19.

Tl/dr - a load of predictions I can be wrong about.

[kukushkin88]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

It isn’t the most realistic number though. Both the ONS and the DHSC numbers should be given equal prominence in the Tuesday briefing. There should be an integrity in communicating these fatalities, an area where we are lacking, completely. Watch a Wednesday Press Conference with Sturgeon and/or a daily briefing with Andrew Cuomo and spot the difference.

We can give incompetent people (like Raab) sympathy/pity on a human level but he should have no leeway as acting PM, nor should he need any, he is a more competent man than the PM (low bar, I know).

Not sure what you mean about July, this will still be driving all of the news agenda in July. None of my criticisms are in hindsight, if that’s what you meant?

Our reporting on deaths, albeit with a 2 week lag, in terms of the Ons stats is completely transparent and with less lag than many countries central stats offices. Questioning the integrity of reporting facts (albeit with some interpretation from doctors / registrars) is just a form of hysteria tbf.

We can’t say that the daily briefings address the ONS numbers with ‘integrity’.

They show the ONS numbers on one bar chart. Other than that, they don’t mention them.

They flat out lie, when challenged (Vallance and Doyle), about the French numbers on their country comparison graph.

https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/government-has-misled-public-over-uk-deaths-being-lower-than-france/7027404.article

Whitty was quite a bit better on this (ONS) today, no reason I can think of not to give numbers though.

[nirvana]

This needs the qualifier that it is using all mortality excess deaths, which is what would be used if the number of fatalities wasn’t so politically sensitive. This will include indirect deaths as well. It will be a problem in other nations as well but most other countries have the decency not to trumpet their handling of the crisis as a success (Trump and North Korea obvious exceptions). The thing the FT and many others are taking issue with is the politically motivated effort to understate the fatalities. It’s incredible that they still can’t bring themselves to caveat the announcement of the daily deaths with the fact that it is a gross underestimate. Everyone else bar us, NK and Trump does it *, including First Ministers of our devolved Parliaments.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
(Paywall removed)

*incomplete data on this but you get the idea

I disagree with this, the govt should give the best facts available in a timely manner. Hancock / Raab etc give this on a daily briefing with the hospital numbers available, the ONS (which is the govt) give a more total picture with a 10 day delay. Both are the truth, nothing is being hidden.

All members of the govt, should be given more leeway than they are given, 2 moths ago Raab was a boring foreign secretary who was looking at North Korea or the Kremlin was up to, today he is acting PM expected to build a supply chain in the UK for 50m masks a week.

In 2 months time it will be the 1st July and we will be criticising the govt for not doing something really obvious, however I have no idea what that will be. (I will make some random guesses in a couple of hours)

It isn’t the most realistic number though. Both the ONS and the DHSC numbers should be given equal prominence in the Tuesday briefing. There should be an integrity in communicating these fatalities, an area where we are lacking, completely. Watch a Wednesday Press Conference with Sturgeon and/or a daily briefing with Andrew Cuomo and spot the difference.

We can give incompetent people (like Raab) sympathy/pity on a human level but he should have no leeway as acting PM, nor should he need any, he is a more competent man than the PM (low bar, I know).

Not sure what you mean about July, this will still be driving all of the news agenda in July. None of my criticisms are in hindsight, if that’s what you meant?

Our reporting on deaths, albeit with a 2 week lag, in terms of the Ons stats is completely transparent and with less lag than many countries central stats offices. Questioning the integrity of reporting facts (albeit with some interpretation from doctors / registrars) is just a form of hysteria tbf.

We can’t say that the daily briefings address the ONS numbers with ‘integrity’.

They show the ONS numbers on one bar chart. Other than that, they don’t mention them.

They flat out lie, when challenged (Vallance and Doyle), about the French numbers on their country comparison graph.

https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/government-has-misled-public-over-uk-deaths-being-lower-than-france/7027404.article

Whitty was quite a bit better on this (ONS) today, no reason I can think of not to give numbers though.

The fact is that the Govt produces these stats completely transparently as they have done in the past. In many ways, introducing this second factor when the number would have been very low (due to lag in reporting would be silly). If we want to track progress it makes sense to stick with the most readily available, fairly accurate number from hospitals to be consistent with the way the data was presented from day one of these pointless daily briefings.

Now there's a clearly measurable second major strand to deaths they are reporting that too.

These conferences would be much better without questions - get together in parliament, agree what measures, facts and plans should be presented/reported daily, present those and save the politics for Westminster. Despite this being the biggest crisis in most of our sheltered lives, most people outside twitter and the more lefty left don't really expect a perfect or particularly wordy response day in day out.

[Jon MW]

... but this pandemic is not the pandemic they have been planning badly for - it is a totally new beast.

No one was complaining that the only factory on earth that made nasal swabs was situated in the northern Italy, its ability to produce was limited by events. Who knew that so much PPE was made in Hubei. Who predicted that demand for face masks would go up 900% (in France but the uk is still secret) whilst simultaneously that only places that made it would be closed and knocked offline, who predictions included that the USA would go round outbidding all other counties for any on the open market.

Politicians are very good at fixing problems the media are shouting at them about, they are not good at looking ahead and planning for a few weeks ahead.

...

For some context about the pandemic they were planning for, there was a pandemic response simulation in November 2019

https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

The response overall, by every country, was .... poor.

This was the index they produced to rank countries on how prepared they were for a pandemic.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

As well as unexpected logistical issues like you mentioned, some countries (USA) have unexpected (?) political issues - but this was in theory how well everyone was prepared for a pandemic just before we got one.

[MintTrav]

No one was complaining that the only factory on earth that made nasal swabs was situated in the northern Italy, its ability to produce was limited by events. Who’re knew that so much PPE was made in Hubei.

Not the general public, but there are people whose job it is to know such things and to highlight the risk of too much sourcing being from one place.