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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 354163 times)
Woodsey
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« Reply #1770 on: April 27, 2020, 12:09:34 PM »

Good to see the great leader back at the helm 
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jakally
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« Reply #1771 on: April 27, 2020, 12:27:23 PM »


https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254462206403588096?s=21

The all cause mortality international comparisons.

Seems that the U.K. excess non Covid deaths, that came along by coincidence (according to some), nearly all came along in the Covid hotspots.

Interesting data - I do like Burn Murdoch.
Who is saying it is coincidence?

It was a contentious topic ITT thread after the first relevant ONS update. Without a better explainer, the graphs in the Tuesday briefings make an absolute assumption that the other excess deaths aren’t Covid. I think it’s fair to say that just in general (including most people I talk to) people think U.K. Coronavirus deaths are “around 20,000” .

Are you saying that the government briefing on Tuesday inferred that the excess deaths are not Covid related? Surprised if that is the case.
As for the general public, I don't think anyone who is taking a close interest would say that 20,000 is the number, or even close to it.
The people who watch the news once per day for an update would probably think different to that though, & they almost certainly are a bigger number of people.

There some quite active COVID deniers out there who are raising doubts that even 20,000 people have died of COVID.   

I'm sure there are lots of them.
I was more concerned that politicians or journalists were amongst those trying to deny the excess deaths. Hopefully that is not the case.
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Doobs
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« Reply #1772 on: April 27, 2020, 01:19:32 PM »

Good to see the great leader back at the helm 

Kim Jong-Un is alive then?
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4KSuited
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« Reply #1773 on: April 27, 2020, 01:21:53 PM »

Good to see the great leader back at the helm 

Kim Jong-Un is alive then?

Very good 
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Woodsey
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« Reply #1774 on: April 27, 2020, 01:28:28 PM »

Good to see the great leader back at the helm 

Kim Jong-Un is alive then?

Very good 

Might have been if he got the right Kim   Roll Eyes
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Marky147
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« Reply #1775 on: April 27, 2020, 03:00:23 PM »

Good to see the great leader back at the helm 

Kim Jong-Un is alive then?

Very good 

Might have been if he got the right Kim   Roll Eyes

Should have been Kim Wilde?
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #1776 on: April 27, 2020, 04:21:52 PM »

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1777 on: April 27, 2020, 04:25:14 PM »

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?

It definitely is a good sign. The slight qualifier on it is that as the % of tests on key workers goes up as a proportion of total tests, we’d expect a lower positivity rate. Even once this is accounted for, things are trending in the right direction.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1778 on: April 27, 2020, 04:41:39 PM »

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?

It definitely is a good sign. The slight qualifier on it is that as the % of tests on key workers goes up as a proportion of total tests, we’d expect a lower positivity rate. Even once this is accounted for, things are trending in the right direction.

and any enthusiasm should be tempered by the fact that scientists, actually independent ones, say that in our situation, you’d want new infections to be in the low hundreds before you’d have any hope of managing the loosening of the lockdown.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #1779 on: April 27, 2020, 05:33:55 PM »

Generally don’t watch the daily press conference as it borders on pointless.

Put it on today, just confirmed my view that Peston is a dickhead.

Loved the one word response on his stupid follow up question by Hancock.

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Chompy
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« Reply #1780 on: April 27, 2020, 05:41:22 PM »

Public questions are the future. Make it more like Jim'll Fix It.
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jakally
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« Reply #1781 on: April 27, 2020, 06:50:45 PM »

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?

It definitely is a good sign. The slight qualifier on it is that as the % of tests on key workers goes up as a proportion of total tests, we’d expect a lower positivity rate. Even once this is accounted for, things are trending in the right direction.

Why would key workers affect the positive test rate?
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #1782 on: April 27, 2020, 06:59:58 PM »

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?

It definitely is a good sign. The slight qualifier on it is that as the % of tests on key workers goes up as a proportion of total tests, we’d expect a lower positivity rate. Even once this is accounted for, things are trending in the right direction.

Why would key workers affect the positive test rate?

I was wondering that.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1783 on: April 27, 2020, 07:00:37 PM »

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?

It definitely is a good sign. The slight qualifier on it is that as the % of tests on key workers goes up as a proportion of total tests, we’d expect a lower positivity rate. Even once this is accounted for, things are trending in the right direction.

Why would key workers affect the positive test rate?

The previous testing was limited to those who were hospitalised displaying Covid symptoms, this group would be the people optimally likely to return a + result. Key workers would be (by an amount that’s hard to quantity) less likely to return a positive result. The criteria for them to be tested are quite wide and don’t involve them needing to be displaying Covid symptoms.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1784 on: April 27, 2020, 07:07:23 PM »

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?

It definitely is a good sign. The slight qualifier on it is that as the % of tests on key workers goes up as a proportion of total tests, we’d expect a lower positivity rate. Even once this is accounted for, things are trending in the right direction.

Why would key workers affect the positive test rate?

The previous testing was limited to those who were hospitalised displaying Covid symptoms, this group would be the people optimally likely to return a + result. Key workers would be (by an amount that’s hard to quantity) less likely to return a positive result. The criteria for them to be tested are quite wide and don’t involve them needing to be displaying Covid symptoms.

I guess my explanation also needs the qualifier that when I say ‘positivity rate’, I mean a percentage.
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