COVID19

[Marky147]

Most logical explanation I've seen is Michael Osterholm's when he was on Rogan.

I was still in the dopey 'only flu' camp when I saw that, and that gave me a fright.

I'm still dopey, but got out of the camp after watching him talk about Wuhan.

[Doobs]

Get Icke on the case.

China engineering this situation may seem totally ridiculous but they will defo be buying assets/resources at knock down prices.

Every cloud has a silver lining, especially if you are China.

Anyone can buy assets/resources at "knock down" prices. 

True, especially if you are a cash rich country.

You not a little curious about the way this has developed?

I have seen a lot of conspiracy theories and they don't really stand scrutiny.  Why would the lizards/Chinese/illuminati/Bill Gates release this virus that is so difficult to control that at the same time trashes their wealth as well as ours.  The Chinese aren't just starting to invest now, they have been for some time, so they will have been experiencing the same reducing wealth experiece as Woodsey and I up until now.

The Bill Gates one is my favourite; the man has all the money he needs and is still fabulously wealthy, despite giving nearly all of it away.  But this same man then decides to kill millions so he can make a profit on the vaccine.  If it isn't that lot it is the bankers who have been "coining it in" since the financial crisis; or so say a bunch of people who never bought bank shares.  If they had they'd know that bank shares had remained dreadful investments even before COVID. 

I don't even really accept that these assets are at "knock down" prices.  For example, I have less oil shares than I once did, but demand had been falling long before COVID19 and there have been over-supply issues for a while that meant that some potential discoveries had already become uneconomic.  A lot of shops, restaurant and pub groups were also in a lot of trouble leading up to COVID19.  The likes of hedge funds and over-zealous directors had already crippled many industries with unsustainable debt.  Paying 10 million for something that was once worth a billion is only a knockdown price if it isn't really worth zero (i have been there many times).   

On to airlines.

The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.
-- Warren Buffett, in the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter

Buffet of course ignored Buffet and invested in airlines a couple of years ago.   He has responded to the "knock down" price in airlines by selling.  I think vaccines are a bit like airlines, they need a lot of capital investment and they aren't ever going to be a money spinner.  Someone should have told Gates beofe he killed all those people :/.   

[RickBFA]

Get Icke on the case.

China engineering this situation may seem totally ridiculous but they will defo be buying assets/resources at knock down prices.

Every cloud has a silver lining, especially if you are China.

Anyone can buy assets/resources at "knock down" prices. 

True, especially if you are a cash rich country.

You not a little curious about the way this has developed?

I have seen a lot of conspiracy theories and they don't really stand scrutiny.  Why would the lizards/Chinese/illuminati/Bill Gates release this virus that is so difficult to control that at the same time trashes their wealth as well as ours.  The Chinese aren't just starting to invest now, they have been for some time, so they will have been experiencing the same reducing wealth experiece as Woodsey and I up until now.

The Bill Gates one is my favourite; the man has all the money he needs and is still fabulously wealthy, despite giving nearly all of it away.  But this same man then decides to kill millions so he can make a profit on the vaccine.  If it isn't that lot it is the bankers who have been "coining it in" since the financial crisis; or so say a bunch of people who never bought bank shares.  If they had they'd know that bank shares had remained dreadful investments even before COVID. 

I don't even really accept that these assets are at "knock down" prices.  For example, I have less oil shares than I once did, but demand had been falling long before COVID19 and there have been over-supply issues for a while that meant that some potential discoveries had already become uneconomic.  A lot of shops, restaurant and pub groups were also in a lot of trouble leading up to COVID19.  The likes of hedge funds and over-zealous directors had already crippled many industries with unsustainable debt.  Paying 10 million for something that was once worth a billion is only a knockdown price if it isn't really worth zero (i have been there many times).   

On to airlines.

The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.
-- Warren Buffett, in the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter

Buffet of course ignored Buffet and invested in airlines a couple of years ago.   He has responded to the "knock down" price in airlines by selling.  I think vaccines are a bit like airlines, they need a lot of capital investment and they aren't ever going to be a money spinner.  Someone should have told Gates beofe he killed all those people :/.   

If fund managers/investors are smart there is definitely selective value when markets have fallen as heavily as they did.

All stocks get dragged down, no matter how good the business model or balance sheet. So I disagree - there are opportunities to buy where the price of the shares don’t reflect the intrinsic value of a business at “knock down value”. That might not be oil or airlines.

I like seeing what someone like Mike Fox who runs Royal London Sustainable Funds says about using these times to your advantage. His philosophy is very impressive.

[Doobs]

Get Icke on the case.

China engineering this situation may seem totally ridiculous but they will defo be buying assets/resources at knock down prices.

Every cloud has a silver lining, especially if you are China.

Anyone can buy assets/resources at "knock down" prices. 

True, especially if you are a cash rich country.

You not a little curious about the way this has developed?

I have seen a lot of conspiracy theories and they don't really stand scrutiny.  Why would the lizards/Chinese/illuminati/Bill Gates release this virus that is so difficult to control that at the same time trashes their wealth as well as ours.  The Chinese aren't just starting to invest now, they have been for some time, so they will have been experiencing the same reducing wealth experiece as Woodsey and I up until now.

The Bill Gates one is my favourite; the man has all the money he needs and is still fabulously wealthy, despite giving nearly all of it away.  But this same man then decides to kill millions so he can make a profit on the vaccine.  If it isn't that lot it is the bankers who have been "coining it in" since the financial crisis; or so say a bunch of people who never bought bank shares.  If they had they'd know that bank shares had remained dreadful investments even before COVID. 

I don't even really accept that these assets are at "knock down" prices.  For example, I have less oil shares than I once did, but demand had been falling long before COVID19 and there have been over-supply issues for a while that meant that some potential discoveries had already become uneconomic.  A lot of shops, restaurant and pub groups were also in a lot of trouble leading up to COVID19.  The likes of hedge funds and over-zealous directors had already crippled many industries with unsustainable debt.  Paying 10 million for something that was once worth a billion is only a knockdown price if it isn't really worth zero (i have been there many times).   

On to airlines.

The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.
-- Warren Buffett, in the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter

Buffet of course ignored Buffet and invested in airlines a couple of years ago.   He has responded to the "knock down" price in airlines by selling.  I think vaccines are a bit like airlines, they need a lot of capital investment and they aren't ever going to be a money spinner.  Someone should have told Gates beofe he killed all those people :/.   

If fund managers/investors are smart there is definitely selective value when markets have fallen as heavily as they did.

All stocks get dragged down, no matter how good the business model or balance sheet. So I disagree - there are opportunities to buy where the price of the shares don’t reflect the intrinsic value of a business at “knock down value”. That might not be oil or airlines.

I like seeing what someone like Mike Fox who runs Royal London Sustainable Funds says about using these times to your advantage. His philosophy is very impressive.

I don't think we disagree on the fundamental point.  There are bound to be bargains to be had.    I strongly suspect we probably disagree on the ease of picking them and the abilities of fund managers. 

FWIW Not all stocks have been dragged down.  There is always some volatility, but I am pretty sure that Tesco and GSK have been fine, where as many others have been absolutely trashed.  I am sure other shares have done ok too, just not that many others in my portfolio. 

[Pokerpops]

Unbelievable Jeff

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553229

[jakally]

Unbelievable Jeff

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553229

My initial reaction to this was feeling sorry for the guy, & that he will be missed from his role. Struggle to explain why I think like that.

Obviously heard his name a chunk over the last couple of months, but can't recall seeing him & don't know what he specifically does or has done.
Can only think the 'Prof' goes in his favour, he looks like a decent guy from the pics & I don't associate him as political.

[ripple11]

Unbelievable Jeff

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553229

My initial reaction to this was feeling sorry for the guy, & that he will be missed from his role. Struggle to explain why I think like that.

Obviously heard his name a chunk over the last couple of months, but can't recall seeing him & don't know what he specifically does or has done.
Can only think the 'Prof' goes in his favour, he looks like a decent guy from the pics & I don't associate him as political.

So silly....after what happened to the Chief Medical Officer in Scotland, or Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick,it shouldn't take a Professor to work out that "top" people are either spied on by the press or easily snitched on by associates/neighbours.

  

[Pokerpops]

Unbelievable Jeff

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553229

My initial reaction to this was feeling sorry for the guy, & that he will be missed from his role. Struggle to explain why I think like that.

Obviously heard his name a chunk over the last couple of months, but can't recall seeing him & don't know what he specifically does or has done.
Can only think the 'Prof' goes in his favour, he looks like a decent guy from the pics & I don't associate him as political.

So silly....after what happened to the Chief Medical Officer in Scotland, or Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick,it shouldn't take a Professor to work out that "top" people are either spied on by the press or easily snitched on by associates/neighbours.

  

I tend to agree with jackaly on this, he is clearly a very respected figure in the medical world, specifically in infectious diseases.

[arbboy]

The sun's headline today was pretty funny regarding the issue when they put it up on Newsnight late last night.   Something about 'lockdown but getting his trousers down'

[Doobs]

Unbelievable Jeff

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553229

My initial reaction to this was feeling sorry for the guy, & that he will be missed from his role. Struggle to explain why I think like that.

Obviously heard his name a chunk over the last couple of months, but can't recall seeing him & don't know what he specifically does or has done.
Can only think the 'Prof' goes in his favour, he looks like a decent guy from the pics & I don't associate him as political.

I feel at least as sorry for her.  She has broken the lockdown and everything, but she isn't a public figure and has had her personal situation splashed all over the papers. 

On the science, it seems much more likely than not that he has immunity frol the currrent strain of COVID, so whilst he has broken the rules, it is more it looks bad rather than it is bad.   It may well be she has had COVID too, in which case neiter is likely to have done anything wrong, just something that appears to be wrong.  But meh politics and resigning is the right thing.

I don't think it changes much, as the lockdown isn't just down to him.  A lot of this is well understood now; the Imperial team isn't just him, and if they ask pretty much any other mainstream expert they'll model it in similar ways.

FWIW Despite lots of press to the contrary, the original model result looks to be in the right ballpark.   With the reduced exposure caused by social distancing it looks like we are heading for something just shy of 100,000 deaths in the first wave.  I don't think that is going to be far off the equivalent of 500,000 extra deaths if we had carried on as before.  Given it was produced so early in the UK epidemic it has stood the test of time remarkably well.  Pity he spoilt it by that latet 7k to 20k estimate, but hey ho.

[The Wycher]

Sorry to hear about your Gran,  Arbboy, today we just buried my Gran (98) although she wasn't killed by covid it did have an affect as the care home she was in did have covid so my dad was not able to visit as he is on the at risk list.

Your write up was great it, they were a completely different generation having gone through what they did with WW2 and it definitely did define their generation, which i have a feeling Covid will for my kids.

[Supernova]

I'm so sorry to hear your news Arbboy and thank you for the great write up, it was lovely.

[nirvana]

I can't deal with the big numbers any more. I'm situated in an area covered by West Herts NHS Trust, appaz covers a pop of 0.5m people. These are the deaths in their hospitals over the last 5 days. I feel much safer than I did, especially as I'm not in a care home.


May 1 - 4 deaths

May 2- 4 deaths

May 3- 5 deaths

May 4 - 3 deaths

May 5 - 1 death

Almost no doubt that the sharp focus on hospitals, (capacity, ventilators, PPE) and the relative balance and prioritisation of hospitals over other settings will, later, look like a pretty big mistake if measurement is based on total covid related deaths irrespective of the individual circumstances of the people who died.

Nothing new said here - just musing for my own retrospective.

[arbboy]

Sorry to hear about your Gran,  Arbboy, today we just buried my Gran (98) although she wasn't killed by covid it did have an affect as the care home she was in did have covid so my dad was not able to visit as he is on the at risk list.

Your write up was great it, they were a completely different generation having gone through what they did with WW2 and it definitely did define their generation, which i have a feeling Covid will for my kids.

Sorry to hear your bad news.  98 is a fantastic age.   Glad you all enjoyed my write up about gran.   Helped me come to terms with the great retirement she had even though they had a tougher time during their younger years.  Wasn't written with that in mind but if some blondes enjoying reading my thoughts that's great. 

Just arranged the funeral today and been told that Church of Scotland (who the minister is who will do the service) have banned the singing of Hymns during the service because of an increased risk of virus harm!  Personally think the banning of singing improves most of these occasions as the singing is usually terrible.

[RED-DOG]

I like the new Banksey.

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