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neeko
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« Reply #2310 on: May 19, 2020, 08:35:05 AM »

Kush, you are fine as you are no need to try & be balanced.

My belief is that it's impossible for anyone with a political stance to be objective on anything that has a political element.
You add more to this thread than almost anyone else (Doobs, JonMW & Nirvana in the same bracket), & as long as there is a mix of opinions it is a great place for people like me to find out more.

👍 It’s been a good thread and it’s been good to hear your views/perspectives in the recent pages. The fact that I don’t like Boris (and to a lesser extent the Conservative party) doesn’t alter the situation. We have, objectively, one of the worst governments in the world at dealing with this problem.

I am not sure we even make the top 5 governments in terms of the worst handling of the crisis, (and I think Johnson is a bumbling lazy fool)

1. Brazil - the president is so bad 2 health ministers have resigned in a month.
2. Belarus - held the victory parade with tens of thousands of people in it, despite warnings
3. Russia - cancelled the parade but held the practice when 100’s got ill.
4. USA - Trump, a federal response is needed and he is asleep at the wheel
5. Was going to go with China as they started so badly, but by locking the front door of every tower block in the country for 70 days, they got their cases to near zero. (Ultimately futile as it was only a temp win) so Ecuador as 5th (bit desperate this one, the UK nearly make it in the top 5)
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Jon MW
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« Reply #2311 on: May 19, 2020, 09:38:32 AM »

Kush, you are fine as you are no need to try & be balanced.

My belief is that it's impossible for anyone with a political stance to be objective on anything that has a political element.
You add more to this thread than almost anyone else (Doobs, JonMW & Nirvana in the same bracket), & as long as there is a mix of opinions it is a great place for people like me to find out more.

👍 It’s been a good thread and it’s been good to hear your views/perspectives in the recent pages. The fact that I don’t like Boris (and to a lesser extent the Conservative party) doesn’t alter the situation. We have, objectively, one of the worst governments in the world at dealing with this problem.

I am not sure we even make the top 5 governments in terms of the worst handling of the crisis, (and I think Johnson is a bumbling lazy fool)

1. Brazil - the president is so bad 2 health ministers have resigned in a month.
2. Belarus - held the victory parade with tens of thousands of people in it, despite warnings
3. Russia - cancelled the parade but held the practice when 100’s got ill.
4. USA - Trump, a federal response is needed and he is asleep at the wheel
5. Was going to go with China as they started so badly, but by locking the front door of every tower block in the country for 70 days, they got their cases to near zero. (Ultimately futile as it was only a temp win) so Ecuador as 5th (bit desperate this one, the UK nearly make it in the top 5)

I think this also highlights the problem that we're only judging what we know about. There might be many countries that are doing even worse, but because they're small and out of the way with very little travel they aren't going to be affected too badly even if they make all the wrong decisions.

For example, a few countries in Africa have put in large orders for an anti-malarial herbal drink to combat the virus despite their being no evidence it does anything useful.- reminiscent of Trump policy.

But I don't know enough about the rest of what they're doing to judge if that's just an odd choice in an otherwise sensible plan or whether that is indicative of their whole pandemic strategy.

There could also be a case for countries like India - but it's somewhat more nuanced, they are reacting to the public health problem but they could easily end up with a massive excess mortality rate over many years because of the actions they are currently taking. But that will take time to play out and even then the results are always going to ambigious to be able to be interpreted either way.

After a couple of years it will become clearer for everyone but even then there will be the difficulty of only being able to look at how each country did compared with each other instead of being able to look at how they did compared with the best and worst cases of what they could have done.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2312 on: May 19, 2020, 09:46:05 AM »

Kush, you are fine as you are no need to try & be balanced.

My belief is that it's impossible for anyone with a political stance to be objective on anything that has a political element.
You add more to this thread than almost anyone else (Doobs, JonMW & Nirvana in the same bracket), & as long as there is a mix of opinions it is a great place for people like me to find out more.

👍 It’s been a good thread and it’s been good to hear your views/perspectives in the recent pages. The fact that I don’t like Boris (and to a lesser extent the Conservative party) doesn’t alter the situation. We have, objectively, one of the worst governments in the world at dealing with this problem.

I enjoy your posts too. I've learnt a lot from you and the others.

P.s. 1st order has finally been received  Wink


Good morning

Great news mate, the turnaround in the fortunes of your business has been the best thing about the thread imo, along with Arb’s lovely posts about his Nan, for very different reasons of course.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2313 on: May 19, 2020, 10:45:56 AM »


An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.

What would your policy on returning children to school be?

A gradual return from 1st June (subject to the R caveats) seems a sensible step.

Most reasonable people including a previous labour education secretary seem too agree.

WHO have said in countries where schools have remained open there is no evidence of infection hot spots.

It’s surely about a sensible balance of risk. Plenty of workers in this country are doing that day in day out.




And tonight, Tony Blair is latest to endorse opening school as it’s based on evidence in his opinion.

Maybe, just maybe, the government are striking the right balance on this.

Good evening

I’ll write a full reply tomorrow, I’m suddenly tired now. It’s an interesting one, both scientifically and politically. Especially, as you say, with Adonis, Blunkett and Blair getting involved.

Good morning

Let’s start off with an excellent snippet of wisdom from none other than Dr Phil Hammond (I don’t know for sure who he is but he’s been on TV as a medical doctor, I’ve decided not to look him up as this excellent statement should stand on its own merits). He says (paraphrasing) ‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. It’s the best criticism of SAGE and the government interpretation of science so far, in just one sentence. I’ll come back to this later but let’s talk schools. The SAGE position is that opening schools will increase epidemic spread by 2-4%. They can’t know this and so they should publish everything they’ve used to come to this conclusion.

Critical pieces of information will be:

1. What potential do children have to become infected? ONS data says prior to school closure the disease was as prevalent in children as any other age group, thankfully as we know, they are likely (in relative terms) to experience mild illness or be entirely asymptomatic. The outbreak of the Kawasaki like disease is small enough not to be considered at this stage but it’s vital that we understand it better going forward.
2. What viral load is carried by symptomatic and asymptomatic children? The German study suggested it was as high in both groups as any other disease carrying group.
3. What is the overarching priority in terms of what we are trying to achieve? I would put forward that avoiding a second peak with uncontrolled epidemic spread is #1, this is consistent with what the government say their priority is.
4. What pressures are the government under that might undermine their efforts on number 3? A lot of their core support and highly influential supporters prioritise the economy above everything and won’t fully understand the science. They will be desperate not to be ‘left behind’ in terms of getting the economy back up to full speed.

So far there is a broad equivalence between the badly impacted nations, we can make a strong case for the US, Brazil, Russia and the U.K being marked down, I’ll have another go at making this case later. The thing that would be catastrophic both in terms of deaths and economically would be a second lockdown. Without effective track and trace and with higher levels of infection than other countries that have tentatively reopened, what can the U.K do to try and avoid being a big second peaker, I would argue keeping the schools closed until September, even with all the downside that carries, is the right call.

In terms of the cross party/bench support for the idea, senior New Labour figures will be keen to move on from the period under Corbyn and they think they’ve found a safe option to side with the government on something that they believe will have support from across a wide section of the political spectrum, they might be right but we don’t know yet.

Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #2314 on: May 19, 2020, 11:42:31 AM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain  - - runners up - -
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2315 on: May 19, 2020, 01:04:48 PM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?

“That literally makes no sense” is an odd response, at best. Any room for the possibility that you haven’t understood?

It seems the world of scientists throughout history disagree with you. There’ll be millions (literally) of examples available thanks to Google, the section here from Richard Feynman sums it up quite well.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK234526/

Pure maths can be true without external scrutiny but science, at a conceptual level, can’t be called science without being able to withstand endless scrutiny. It is and always has been, one of the fundamental principles of science.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #2316 on: May 19, 2020, 01:23:23 PM »


An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.

What would your policy on returning children to school be?

A gradual return from 1st June (subject to the R caveats) seems a sensible step.

Most reasonable people including a previous labour education secretary seem too agree.

WHO have said in countries where schools have remained open there is no evidence of infection hot spots.

It’s surely about a sensible balance of risk. Plenty of workers in this country are doing that day in day out.




And tonight, Tony Blair is latest to endorse opening school as it’s based on evidence in his opinion.

Maybe, just maybe, the government are striking the right balance on this.

Good evening

I’ll write a full reply tomorrow, I’m suddenly tired now. It’s an interesting one, both scientifically and politically. Especially, as you say, with Adonis, Blunkett and Blair getting involved.

Good morning

Let’s start off with an excellent snippet of wisdom from none other than Dr Phil Hammond (I don’t know for sure who he is but he’s been on TV as a medical doctor, I’ve decided not to look him up as this excellent statement should stand on its own merits). He says (paraphrasing) ‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. It’s the best criticism of SAGE and the government interpretation of science so far, in just one sentence. I’ll come back to this later but let’s talk schools. The SAGE position is that opening schools will increase epidemic spread by 2-4%. They can’t know this and so they should publish everything they’ve used to come to this conclusion.

Critical pieces of information will be:

1. What potential do children have to become infected? ONS data says prior to school closure the disease was as prevalent in children as any other age group, thankfully as we know, they are likely (in relative terms) to experience mild illness or be entirely asymptomatic. The outbreak of the Kawasaki like disease is small enough not to be considered at this stage but it’s vital that we understand it better going forward.
2. What viral load is carried by symptomatic and asymptomatic children? The German study suggested it was as high in both groups as any other disease carrying group.
3. What is the overarching priority in terms of what we are trying to achieve? I would put forward that avoiding a second peak with uncontrolled epidemic spread is #1, this is consistent with what the government say their priority is.
4. What pressures are the government under that might undermine their efforts on number 3? A lot of their core support and highly influential supporters prioritise the economy above everything and won’t fully understand the science. They will be desperate not to be ‘left behind’ in terms of getting the economy back up to full speed.

So far there is a broad equivalence between the badly impacted nations, we can make a strong case for the US, Brazil, Russia and the U.K being marked down, I’ll have another go at making this case later. The thing that would be catastrophic both in terms of deaths and economically would be a second lockdown. Without effective track and trace and with higher levels of infection than other countries that have tentatively reopened, what can the U.K do to try and avoid being a big second peaker, I would argue keeping the schools closed until September, even with all the downside that carries, is the right call.

In terms of the cross party/bench support for the idea, senior New Labour figures will be keen to move on from the period under Corbyn and they think they’ve found a safe option to side with the government on something that they believe will have support from across a wide section of the political spectrum, they might be right but we don’t know yet.

Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

I very much doubt that Blair’s response to schools opening has anything to do with moving on from Corbyn. Agreeing with the Tories is still agreeing with the Tories. In may just be the case that there is “support from across a wide section of the political spectrum” because it’s the common sense, right move?

And if opening schools is so controversial (by your assessment) why would it be a safe option?

And whilst I’m sure unions will want to protect the interest of their members, there will definitely be a militant element in the leadership of certain teaching unions that will be very keen to make this a political issue and give the Government a bloody nose. 

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Jon MW
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« Reply #2317 on: May 19, 2020, 01:24:44 PM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?

“That literally makes no sense” is an odd response, at best. Any room for the possibility that you haven’t understood?

It seems the world of scientists throughout history disagree with you. There’ll be millions (literally) of examples available thanks to Google, the section here from Richard Feynman sums it up quite well.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK234526/

Pure maths can be true without external scrutiny but science, at a conceptual level, can’t be called science without being able to withstand endless scrutiny. It is and always has been, one of the fundamental principles of science.

What you've provided is what validates science as being accurate - not what makes it science in the first place. Something doesn't become scientific only after peer review (for example). The study and the analysis, following the scientific principle are there all along - the sharing and making it non-secret just tests it. If it tests it and everything holds up - that is not the point where it suddenly becomes scientific.

That person might have meant something in a wider context by it, and it's a catchy little slogan - but I already said how vague the idea is anyway (was the research into splitting the atom not 'science' until  the results were made public?) - the words by themselves don't make sense.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2318 on: May 19, 2020, 02:04:22 PM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?

“That literally makes no sense” is an odd response, at best. Any room for the possibility that you haven’t understood?

It seems the world of scientists throughout history disagree with you. There’ll be millions (literally) of examples available thanks to Google, the section here from Richard Feynman sums it up quite well.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK234526/

Pure maths can be true without external scrutiny but science, at a conceptual level, can’t be called science without being able to withstand endless scrutiny. It is and always has been, one of the fundamental principles of science.

What you've provided is what validates science as being accurate - not what makes it science in the first place. Something doesn't become scientific only after peer review (for example). The study and the analysis, following the scientific principle are there all along - the sharing and making it non-secret just tests it. If it tests it and everything holds up - that is not the point where it suddenly becomes scientific.

That person might have meant something in a wider context by it, and it's a catchy little slogan - but I already said how vague the idea is anyway (was the research into splitting the atom not 'science' until  the results were made public?) - the words by themselves don't make sense.

This is just small minded arguing. It is isn’t a catchy slogan, it’s a premise that is a fundamentally vital to science. If you what you want to take from it, is that I should have paraphrased better, then OK but it might result in you missing the point.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #2319 on: May 19, 2020, 02:19:04 PM »

One of our friends is currently working on ways of treating children with malaria I think she'd be a bit confused if you suggested she wasn't doing any science just because it isn't public yet.

I wouldn't put it in the same way you did - but I was just coming to a similar conclusion, that it's primarily a matter of semantics.

I just thought it odd you'd be so taken by a phrase that only worked as a metaphor while describing something as concrete as science.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #2320 on: May 19, 2020, 02:29:29 PM »

Kush, you are fine as you are no need to try & be balanced.

My belief is that it's impossible for anyone with a political stance to be objective on anything that has a political element.
You add more to this thread than almost anyone else (Doobs, JonMW & Nirvana in the same bracket), & as long as there is a mix of opinions it is a great place for people like me to find out more.

👍 It’s been a good thread and it’s been good to hear your views/perspectives in the recent pages. The fact that I don’t like Boris (and to a lesser extent the Conservative party) doesn’t alter the situation. We have, objectively, one of the worst governments in the world at dealing with this problem.

I am not sure we even make the top 5 governments in terms of the worst handling of the crisis, (and I think Johnson is a bumbling lazy fool)

1. Brazil - the president is so bad 2 health ministers have resigned in a month.
2. Belarus - held the victory parade with tens of thousands of people in it, despite warnings
3. Russia - cancelled the parade but held the practice when 100’s got ill.
4. USA - Trump, a federal response is needed and he is asleep at the wheel
5. Was going to go with China as they started so badly, but by locking the front door of every tower block in the country for 70 days, they got their cases to near zero. (Ultimately futile as it was only a temp win) so Ecuador as 5th (bit desperate this one, the UK nearly make it in the top 5)

We need to make sure the comparisons are fair. We know more about the U.K/US responses, which could bias our views negatively. We can’t judge anything on resignations/sackings as we don’t have the insight. A key component is levelling the field to account for the differences in the situation they inherited. Appropriate international comparisons remain the best method imo. Can we judge Brazil by comparing to say Argentina? The U.K. government had some huge advantages, an island with a late breakout. Trump doesn’t have control over the states, so he probably isn’t as bad as we’d think, an incredibly stupid man of course but a lot of the US issues aren’t actually Trumps fault. I would think Bolsonaro is likely to take some beating but the U.K response looks bad against comparable nations.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2321 on: May 19, 2020, 02:40:33 PM »

One of our friends is currently working on ways of treating children with malaria I think she'd be a bit confused if you suggested she wasn't doing any science just because it isn't public yet.

I wouldn't put it in the same way you did - but I was just coming to a similar conclusion, that it's primarily a matter of semantics.

I just thought it odd you'd be so taken by a phrase that only worked as a metaphor while describing something as concrete as science.


Agreed that if we’re discussing the wording of my paraphrasing then it is semantics. Let’s assume we are taking about the excerpt from the Feynman speech instead, a better way of saying the same thing. That should allow us to get back to discussing the issue. Scientific truth needs to be able to look after itself, if it needs to be kept a secret, it won’t do well under scrutiny.

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« Reply #2322 on: May 19, 2020, 03:45:00 PM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?

I don’t know the answers to part two of the response, I don’t think anyone does. So it’s hard to assign it an appropriate value in weighting what is undoubtedly a difficult decision.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #2323 on: May 19, 2020, 04:12:52 PM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?

I don’t know the answers to part two of the response, I don’t think anyone does. So it’s hard to assign it an appropriate value in weighting what is undoubtedly a difficult decision.

Yes - they (some experts) do have a pretty good idea about all of them (apart from the last one, and you can infer that).

Basically - a lot, even more (about twice as much), a lot, a significant amount and nobody knows because it's never been done at this scale before but all the evidence would suggest a considerable amount of harm.

I could get the study I did as part of my PGCE but that was a bit London centric and the gist matters more than exact numbers anyway.

My point is that this is one consideration, for one year group, for one stage of the education system.

In all the points you raised that you considered to be important there wasn't a single mention of education or learning.

And just like the economy, this doesn't work in isolation. If pupils have a worse start in the education system, they have worse outcomes at the end and that has a knock on effect to their health in later life.

The points you raised about the virus were fair enough, but harming the life chances of millions of pupils to avoid the chance of a 100 or so of them catching the virus would be doing more harm than good.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #2324 on: May 19, 2020, 04:29:17 PM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?

I don’t know the answers to part two of the response, I don’t think anyone does. So it’s hard to assign it an appropriate value in weighting what is undoubtedly a difficult decision.

Yes - they (some experts) do have a pretty good idea about all of them (apart from the last one, and you can infer that).

Basically - a lot, even more (about twice as much), a lot, a significant amount and nobody knows because it's never been done at this scale before but all the evidence would suggest a considerable amount of harm.

I could get the study I did as part of my PGCE but that was a bit London centric and the gist matters more than exact numbers anyway.

My point is that this is one consideration, for one year group, for one stage of the education system.

In all the points you raised that you considered to be important there wasn't a single mention of education or learning.

And just like the economy, this doesn't work in isolation. If pupils have a worse start in the education system, they have worse outcomes at the end and that has a knock on effect to their health in later life.

The points you raised about the virus were fair enough, but harming the life chances of millions of pupils to avoid the chance of a 100 or so of them catching the virus would be doing more harm than good.

It’s certainly valid that the education and subsequent effect on children should be front and centre of the decision making. The studies you allude to won’t have considered this situation or anything like it, not just in scale but in the context of the complexity of the overall problem that society as a whole faces, happy to be proved wrong. We’re not taking about 100 or so children catching it, we’re talking 100,000’s infected and potentially, the loss of what little control we now have.
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