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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353700 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #2745 on: June 09, 2020, 02:35:26 PM »

Given children have low or no symptoms from Covid 19, this implies that schools are safer than expected. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52977940

So if this remains scientific opinion, schools could open with 30 kids in a class in September?
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« Reply #2746 on: June 09, 2020, 04:58:45 PM »

Given children have low or no symptoms from Covid 19, this implies that schools are safer than expected. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52977940

So if this remains scientific opinion, schools could open with 30 kids in a class in September?

It seemed likely that this would happen:
(Cliffs: they now say they don’t know the answer on this, yet)
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/

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« Reply #2747 on: June 09, 2020, 05:22:23 PM »

On the daily conference they have stopped saying “we are guided by the science” Alok is now saying “when it is safe to do so”

I wonder what they hiding with this.
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« Reply #2748 on: June 09, 2020, 05:29:50 PM »

On the daily conference they have stopped saying “we are guided by the science” Alok is now saying “when it is safe to do so”

I wonder what they hiding with this.

Well there’s quite a few things to choose from but the one that really is hiding in plain sight, is lifting multiple elements of the lockdown when we are still at Alert Level 4.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2749 on: June 09, 2020, 05:31:17 PM »


This is fun, for sceptics of the eye test:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1270390810782154752?s=21
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« Reply #2750 on: June 10, 2020, 01:27:38 PM »

This is interesting.
'Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.
The study estimates 80% of those initial cases arrived in the country between 28 Feb and 29 March - the time the UK was debating whether to lockdown.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734
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« Reply #2751 on: June 10, 2020, 01:42:30 PM »

This is interesting.
'Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.
The study estimates 80% of those initial cases arrived in the country between 28 Feb and 29 March - the time the UK was debating whether to lockdown.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734


Although it was really the 11th of March to the 23rd March when the debate was really happening (IIRC).

I haven't looked back at the news reports from then but I don't think there was any real option of a complete lockdown until after the 11th March.

It would be handy if they could narrow those dates down a bit more. If 600 of them came in before the 11th and a few hundred came in after the 23rd that would suggest the exact date of the lockdown made very little difference.
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« Reply #2752 on: June 10, 2020, 02:03:40 PM »

This is interesting.
'Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.
The study estimates 80% of those initial cases arrived in the country between 28 Feb and 29 March - the time the UK was debating whether to lockdown.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734


Although it was really the 11th of March to the 23rd March when the debate was really happening (IIRC).

I haven't looked back at the news reports from then but I don't think there was any real option of a complete lockdown until after the 11th March.

It would be handy if they could narrow those dates down a bit more. If 600 of them came in before the 11th and a few hundred came in after the 23rd that would suggest the exact date of the lockdown made very little difference.

I think we were discussing it here from 15th to 23rd March(ish), the scientists say they were discussing it from mid Feb(ish).

https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507
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« Reply #2753 on: June 10, 2020, 02:20:13 PM »

I don't think lockdown measures were politically at all likely at that point though. The question around the February half term were  more about whether there should be travel restrictions to Italy.

This suggests that may have been an opportunity missed, but I don't recall any suggestion of anything similar for Spain and France though.
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« Reply #2754 on: June 10, 2020, 02:31:03 PM »

I think it points towards the likelihood that closing borders is one of the key steps to restricting Covid 19.
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« Reply #2755 on: June 10, 2020, 02:52:52 PM »

I think it points towards the likelihood that closing borders is one of the key steps to restricting Covid 19.

Yep, so difficult though, when the boss has preconceived ideas like these:

https://youtu.be/tLRZdKGLpew

Lucky for everyone that Macron stepped in:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-macron-idUSKBN218133

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« Reply #2756 on: June 10, 2020, 03:07:02 PM »

I think it points towards the likelihood that closing borders is one of the key steps to restricting Covid 19.

was one of the key steps.

I am a bit sceptical of this, as I am not sure how you distinguish between a branching that occured in Spain and one that occured here.  Without finding Juan and knowing where he travelled, we don't know if he transmitted it to John here or in Spain.  So if we see 25 cases linked to Spanish Juan in the UK, they could have all started when English John and 24 others bumped in to Juan in Barcelona or the 24 others bumped in to John in Manchester.  And how do we know John didn't pass it to Juan?  Or John and Juan could even have bumped into Chinese Xuan in London?

It feels like tweeking the assumptions could make huge differences in estimates of the sources of infections. Even the start points will not be accurate, as the official number of infections in each country at each time can be massively out.

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« Reply #2757 on: June 10, 2020, 03:29:32 PM »

I think it points towards the likelihood that closing borders is one of the key steps to restricting Covid 19.

was one of the key steps.



The article is interested in the period around March, so yes 'was'.

I think you are right that there are assumptions that may be inaccurate.
I don't believe it fundamentally changes the general point that the virus entered the country from a number of different places over a period of a few weeks, which could be good info to inform future strategy.

This also would reinforce the point that having a travel hub (London, New York, Paris etc...) would give greater challenges in a pandemic such as this one.

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« Reply #2758 on: June 10, 2020, 03:38:00 PM »

I think it points towards the likelihood that closing borders is one of the key steps to restricting Covid 19.

was one of the key steps.



The article is interested in the period around March, so yes 'was'.

I think you are right that there are assumptions that may be inaccurate.
I don't believe it fundamentally changes the general point that the virus entered the country from a number of different places over a period of a few weeks, which could be good info to inform future strategy.

This also would reinforce the point that having a travel hub (London, New York, Paris etc...) would give greater challenges in a pandemic such as this one.



The general epidemiological lessons from previous outbreaks has been that restricting people 'out' of epidemic areas is how you control it rather than restricting people coming 'in' to non-epidemic countries.

It might be that this needs more nuance, that the travel hubs might be structural 'super spreaders' along the same lines that individuals could be, for example.

The genetic analysis that's available now that wasn't available in the past should definitely help with learning new lessons in how to approach it.
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« Reply #2759 on: June 10, 2020, 04:29:11 PM »

gosh

Professor Neil Ferguson:

"The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have then reduced the final death toll by at least a half."


a bit of hindsight here, a bit of an axe to grind, and of course a tough calculation on how long you can ask people to lockdown for....but still
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