poker news
blondepedia
card room
tournament schedule
uk results
galleries
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
April 29, 2024, 03:31:15 AM
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Search:
Advanced search
Order through Amazon and help blonde Poker
2272618
Posts in
66755
Topics by
16946
Members
Latest Member:
KobeTaylor
blonde poker forum
Community Forums
The Lounge
COVID19
0 Members and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
...
232
233
234
235
[
236
]
237
238
239
240
...
305
Author
Topic: COVID19 (Read 359830 times)
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3525 on:
January 01, 2021, 09:55:09 PM »
This explains what the problem is with the new strain and how being much more transmissible could be an issue, even though no more dangerous.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986
His explanation is only five tweets, but thankfully can read them without the quarrels within each one, and below where the quarrels start
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3526 on:
January 01, 2021, 11:15:42 PM »
Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread.
As an example, suppose current R=1.1, infection fatality risk is 0.8%, generation time is 6 days, and 10k people infected (plausible for many European cities recently). So we'd expect 10000 x 1.1^5 x 0.8% = 129 eventual new fatalities after a month of spread.
What happens if fatality risk increases by 50%? By above, we'd expect 10000 x 1.1^5 x (0.8% x 1.5) = 193 new fatalities.
Now suppose transmissibility increases by 50%. By above, we'd expect 10000 x (1.1 x 1.5)^5 x 0.8% = 978 eventual new fatalities after a month of spread.
The above is just an illustrative example, but the key message: an increase in something that grows exponentially (i.e. transmission) can have far more effect than the same proportional increase in something that just scales an outcome (i.e. severity).
That's it unrolled by the 'Thread Reader' app, if you're more sensible than me and stay off Twitter.
Time for some more Heroes
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3527 on:
January 02, 2021, 01:44:56 PM »
How would you vote on this and why?
https://twitter.com/rob_yong_/status/1345362151620435969?s=21
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3528 on:
January 02, 2021, 02:40:49 PM »
Providing they get one thing right (vaccines), I'd be hopeful of some normal live poker as an xmas present, and voted <12m.
That aside, was surprised he only had 2 crazies in the comments (tf sheeple & it's fake, but your liberties are gone) or words to that effect
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16577
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3529 on:
January 02, 2021, 02:50:45 PM »
I think it should be late this year, but almost certainly 2022.
Suspect DTD will want to see some evidence cases are pretty low and most vulnerable people are vaccinated before opening. Rob seems to have done the right thing throughout, so I have no reason to think he wil stop.
I am not sure I'd want to play in France anytime soon, I saw some poll the other day where only 40% of French people said they were going to get vaccinated. Add that to the snail's pace vaccine rollout there, and they are definitely a 2022+ Just because our response has been chaotic at times doesn't mean that we are the worst.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16577
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3530 on:
January 02, 2021, 03:06:09 PM »
Statistics Guy tweeted this on New Years Eve
Click to see full-size image.
"Statistics" Guy retweeted this on New Years Eve
Click to see full-size image.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16577
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3531 on:
January 02, 2021, 03:35:45 PM »
and this on one shot vs two shot vaccines, and why the mutation has made it a better decision.
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1345086669607890945
The jury is out, but the procrastination in many other countries seems the worst decision right now. It seems certain that most of them are going to get the new variant or already have it.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3532 on:
January 02, 2021, 04:16:12 PM »
Saw Matt LeTissier retweeting him the other day
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3533 on:
January 02, 2021, 04:17:19 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on January 02, 2021, 03:35:45 PM
and this on one shot vs two shot vaccines, and why the mutation has made it a better decision.
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1345086669607890945
The jury is out, but the procrastination in many other countries seems the worst decision right now. It seems certain that most of them are going to get the new variant or already have it.
From what John was saying, it's likely everywhere, and we found it because our genome research is huge multiples better than anywhere else in the world, and the USA's is embarrassingly low.
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16577
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3534 on:
January 02, 2021, 05:28:00 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on January 02, 2021, 04:16:12 PM
Saw Matt LeTissier retweeting him the other day
Oh gawd, you have sent me back there, he seems to have become mad as a box of frogs since losing his gig.
He is retweeting Cummins too. This is the latest Cummins retweet.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1345063244457791488
From the BMJ.
To theoretically prevent one severe symptom Covid19 case, 1,370 healthy people must be treated (2 injections).
That's 2,740 vaccination injections per one case mitigated.
That's maybe $137,000 to avoid symptoms in *one* (aged) personThinking face 1/2
To theoretically prevent one Covid19 (aged) death...we have no idea how many more - the trials were so tiny that there was no intention to look at death / life years saved benefit.
Guessing maybe $500,000 to defer *one* (aged) person's passing?
So, this sounded unlikely, so I checked it.
It isn't the BMJ that said, it is a letter to the BMJ.
The letter makes some pretty big "mistakes"; no surprise there.
It uses the data from a short trial where Covid was not as common as it is now to estimate the risk of illness. So during the short trial there were only 90 cases in a 15,000 placebo group in that 2 months. In the UK, we have had a higher ratio of deaths than that in the last 10 months or so, never mind the serious illnesses. I don't think anyone is expecting the protection from the vaccine to only last 10 months. So the serious illnesses saved are massively understated, I am guessing by a factor of at least 20, and even the deaths would be way higher than his estimated rate of serious illness.
Then he uses a price per vaccine of $50, which is not far out for Moderna, but Astra Zenecca is providing those for two or three quid. So that is out by a factor of at least 10 for the main UK source of the vaccine.
So overall he has mislead people about the source, and happily overstated the cost of saving someone from serious illness or death by an enormous amount. Similar shit every day no doubt.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3535 on:
January 02, 2021, 06:31:46 PM »
Keep his lemmings sipping the kool-aid, and paying for his Patreon, no doubt.
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16577
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3536 on:
January 03, 2021, 02:20:43 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on January 02, 2021, 05:28:00 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on January 02, 2021, 04:16:12 PM
Saw Matt LeTissier retweeting him the other day
Oh gawd, you have sent me back there, he seems to have become mad as a box of frogs since losing his gig.
He is retweeting Cummins too. This is the latest Cummins retweet.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1345063244457791488
From the BMJ.
To theoretically prevent one severe symptom Covid19 case, 1,370 healthy people must be treated (2 injections).
That's 2,740 vaccination injections per one case mitigated.
That's maybe $137,000 to avoid symptoms in *one* (aged) personThinking face 1/2
To theoretically prevent one Covid19 (aged) death...we have no idea how many more - the trials were so tiny that there was no intention to look at death / life years saved benefit.
Guessing maybe $500,000 to defer *one* (aged) person's passing?
So, this sounded unlikely, so I checked it.
It isn't the BMJ that said, it is a letter to the BMJ.
The letter makes some pretty big "mistakes"; no surprise there.
It uses the data from a short trial where Covid was not as common as it is now to estimate the risk of illness. So during the short trial there were only 90 cases in a 15,000 placebo group in that 2 months. In the UK, we have had a higher ratio of deaths than that in the last 10 months or so, never mind the serious illnesses. I don't think anyone is expecting the protection from the vaccine to only last 10 months. So the serious illnesses saved are massively understated, I am guessing by a factor of at least 20, and even the deaths would be way higher than his estimated rate of serious illness.
Then he uses a price per vaccine of $50, which is not far out for Moderna, but Astra Zenecca is providing those for two or three quid. So that is out by a factor of at least 10 for the main UK source of the vaccine.
So overall he has mislead people about the source, and happily overstated the cost of saving someone from serious illness or death by an enormous amount. Similar shit every day no doubt.
I'd forgotten that Stuart McDonald had done this last year, but he retweeted it this morning. I don't know if it is just coincidence, or if he was aware of all the retweeting of Ivor Cummin's "estimate" of the cost of vaccinations.
https://www.covid-arg.com/post/vaccine-priorities
In that, they estimated only 20 vaccinations are needed to prevent one death in the highest priority group and only 4,000 right down the over 55s. So the cost of the vaccinations to save one 55 year old is only £10k or so, and the cost of vaccinations for the life of one person over 85 is less than £100.
There is an implicit assumption that future deaths would be equal to past deaths, and even that is quite conservative (ie assuming just 60k deaths from wave 2 and after it we had no vaccine is at the optimistic end of projections).
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3537 on:
January 03, 2021, 04:14:29 PM »
Irks me, but can't imagine how irritating it is for people like him and yourself, whose job it is to do stuff like that properly, and have others being purposely misleading.
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
neeko
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1762
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3538 on:
January 03, 2021, 10:42:29 PM »
The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.
The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.
Logged
There is no problem so bad that a politician cant make it worse.
http://www.dec.org.uk
Pokerpops
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1428
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3539 on:
January 03, 2021, 11:53:41 PM »
Quote from: neeko on January 03, 2021, 10:42:29 PM
The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.
The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.
Where are you seeing these obvious numbers?
To me, it seems that the teaching unions have decided that political point scoring outweighs the education and mental health of children.
Logged
"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
Pages:
1
...
232
233
234
235
[
236
]
237
238
239
240
...
305
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Poker Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Rail
===> past blonde Bashes
===> Best of blonde
=> Diaries and Blogs
=> Live Tournament Updates
=> Live poker
===> Live Tournament Staking
=> Internet Poker
===> Online Tournament Staking
=> Poker Hand Analysis
===> Learning Centre
-----------------------------
Community Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Lounge
=> Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Loading...